Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC

[BadMotoWeazal]

Right now they're bound by their TV contracts that run through 2025. The B10 actually has a great opportunity here because ours runs out in 2022 I believe.

To be honest... there is so much money in college football I don't think that either Texas or OK would have a problem breaking that contract & saying adios.

 

[Volbound1700]

I saw an Oklahoma fan whining on Youtube about Oklahoma may not make playoff now and I stated that actually the shot is better. One, I think OU will compete in the SEC. Two, you can go 9-3 or 10-2 now with the 12-team playoff and still make it in. OU and Texas, plus SEC, have thought of everything. With the exception of UK and Vandy, anyone in the SEC has a shot and even some of the bad teams are not as far off as you think.

Take 2015 Tennessee for example. They had 2 TD leads on Florida and Oklahoma before blowing them and a TD lead on Alabama in 4th. Had Tennessee not choked (and had better coaching), they could have easily won all 3 games and been playoff bound. You can look through the conference and even see situations and scenarios were Ole Miss, Arkansas, Missouri, South Carolina, etc. make playoffs. To say Oklahoma would never make it is crazy. With a 12-team playoff, they might be in it almost every year because I think Oklahoma will be a top 3 program in the SEC easily.

 

[Wild Turkey]

The wisest thing for the remainder of the Big 12 teams to do is stand pat until TX/OU pay their GOR violation penalties.

If TX/OU decide to stay until that GOR contract expires, the remaining Big 12 schools will continue to receive their media rights payments until 2025 which is currently $35 million/yr each.

If TX/OU have to pay the $76 million/ea GOR penalty that's $76 mil x 2 = $152 million total. Divide that by the 8 remaining teams and it's a $19 million bonus per remaining team in addition to the $35 million they'll receive for 2021. i.e $54 million payout per team.

Stand pat until TX/OU either stay through 2025 or collect your $19 million first then let the Big 12 dissolve.

It’s the smart thing I 100% agree…but the first one that gets an opportunity to bolt will do so and the others will follow if they can.

My guess is the PAC and B1G are having conversations behind the scenes to see what interest each of them has in what is left.

If I’m the B1G I keep what I got and don’t feel pressure to add anyone (and wouldn’t because there isn’t real value there).

The PAC is more interesting because they could use new markets and time zone games.

If the PAC could get Kansas, Iowa State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State that would add 4 states to their footprint, avoid private religious schools and increase their market. They aren’t ever going to find better expansion candidates at this point. The Arizona schools line up well with the Big 12 schools plus add Colorado and Utah to form a division.

It beats Boise State, Fresno and we know they won’t take BYU. Pull the trigger.

 

[fordman84]

I saw an Oklahoma fan whining on Youtube about Oklahoma may not make playoff now and I stated that actually the shot is better. One, I think OU will compete in the SEC. Two, you can go 9-3 or 10-2 now with the 12-team playoff and still make it in. OU and Texas, plus SEC, have thought of everything. With the exception of UK and Vandy, anyone in the SEC has a shot and even some of the bad teams are not as far off as you think.

Take 2015 Tennessee for example. They had 2 TD leads on Florida and Oklahoma before blowing them and a TD lead on Alabama in 4th. Had Tennessee not choked (and had better coaching), they could have easily won all 3 games and been playoff bound. You can look through the conference and even see situations and scenarios were Ole Miss, Arkansas, Missouri, South Carolina, etc. make playoffs. To say Oklahoma would never make it is crazy. With a 12-team playoff, they might be in it almost every year because I think Oklahoma will be a top 3 program in the SEC easily.

Now with expanded playoffs, you are right. In the old 4 team format, OU would be screwed.

 

[B_dub]

The only sad thing in this move is Oklahoma State. I kind of wish SEC could find a way to drag them in as well to keep that rivalry alive.

"Rivalry"

 

[Volbound1700]

I will say this, with the exception of Missouri who suffered injuries, usually first-year SEC teams perform well. Arkansas, South Carolina, and Texas A&M all had great first years in the SEC. They dipped in the preceding years though. I think SEC schools have to adjust to the new teams and vice-versa. OU has its best team since probably 2008/2009 time frame on paper. This is a great time for OU to enter the SEC. I think they could even challenge Bama.

 

[OregonDucks]

Yeah. I have no sympathy for fans of the Big 12 North teams that voted lockstep with tejas at the conference's inception.

They were under the impression that "If you take Nebraska down, it'll make you look better when you start beating them". There was a massive power shift to the South Division which was the TX/OU plan to begin with. There were a lot of 11-1 votes back then, with Nebraska being the 1.

My goodness you make this sound like a Cohen Brothers film.

In the end of this film, Nebraska goes off to be a low tier team in the B1G and those who remained in the Big12 are left without a home.

 

[Red_Alert]

It's no mystery the Big 10 is limited to AAU schools.
From the Big 12 that's Texas/Kansas/Iowa St.

If I'm Kevin Warren and KU/ISU call, I tell them "Relax. Stand pat and collect your $35 million + $19 million ($54 million) first then we'll talk."
Same goes for PAC and ACC.
If you're PAC commissioner, know that Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Okie Jr, and KSU would love an invite to stay P5.
If you're ACC know the same regarding WVU.

None of them are homeruns and none of them are head and shoulders above the others.
Big 10, PAC, and ACC commissioners need to keep from being drawn into the fray.

The key here for the remaining 8 is not to panic and fuck yourselves out of the media rights contract you already have through 2025 + the $19 million IF TX/OU opt to violate the GOR.
Panic is what the SEC/TX/OU want you to do.

 

[huskers1217]

Bobby the Brain is perfect SEC material.

you know in all the years that @outofyourmind has been posting that drivel.. and its probably been in the thousands. I never looked hard enough to see Bobby Heenan in that gif.

 

[Bring Back The Oilers]

My favorite Bobby Heenan line of all time was when Shawn Michaels turned on Marty Jannetty.

"He tried to jump through the window to escape from Shawn! What a coward."

 

[Volbound1700]

It's no mystery the Big 10 is limited to AAU schools.
From the Big 12 that's Texas/Kansas/Iowa St.

If I'm Kevin Warren and KU/ISU call, I tell them "Relax. Stand pat and collect your $35 million + $19 million ($54 million) first then we'll talk."
Same goes for PAC and ACC.
If you're PAC commissioner, know that Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Okie Jr, and KSU would love an invite to stay P5.
If you're ACC know the same regarding WVU.

None of them are homeruns and none of them are head and shoulders above the others.
Big 10, PAC, and ACC commissioners need to keep from being drawn into the fray.

The key here for the remaining 8 is not to panic and fuck yourselves out of the media rights contract you already have through 2025 + the $19 million IF TX/OU opt to violate the GOR.
Panic is what the SEC/TX/OU want you to do.

OU and Texas will settle and get out by 2022. The Big12 teams will get their paycheck and then quit Big12 as well. OU and Texas will make more money getting out of Big12 early and starting SEC early than they would staying and saving on the bailout costs.

 

[Red_Alert]

To be honest... there is so much money in college football I don't think that either Texas or OK would have a problem breaking that contract & saying adios.

They don't. Both schools have boosters and donors that will chip in. Not to mention their $11 million pay increase ($34 million > $45 million by going to the SEC for the 2022 season.

2022 + 2023+ 2024 +2025 = $44 million

That leaves just $32 million for boosters and donors to pick up.

In 2025 SEC teams will be making at least what the Big 10 teams make ($54 million) if not more. Whatever boosters and donors don't pick up will be made up within a couple years at most.

Without boosters and donors assistance TX/OU are still sure to break even on the $76 million within 6 years and on their way to massive profits going forward after that.

That's basically what Nebraska did getting partial share with the Big 10 for 6 years. That partial share was compatible with what they'd had earned in the Big 12 and once full share hit in year 7 they've been rolling in cash since.

At this point it appears TX/OU will get full share from the SEC. So immediate $11 million/year pay raise for 4 years then BAM, a minimum $20 million pay raise going forward.

OU makes out far better in this deal because TX is already making $54 million/yr (Big 10 money) in the Big 12 with the $34 million per Big 12 team plus the $15 million/year from the LHN.
The LHN will be dissolved and be an overall $9 million loss/yr for 4 years to the donghorns.

My maffs is good!!

 

[outofyourmind]

That leaves just $32 million for boosters and donors to pick up.

Texas and Oklahoma have had 6 months to set up those donations, to make up the difference.
JMO though.

 

[TaikoTiger]

I saw an Oklahoma fan whining on Youtube about Oklahoma may not make playoff now and I stated that actually the shot is better. One, I think OU will compete in the SEC. Two, you can go 9-3 or 10-2 now with the 12-team playoff and still make it in. OU and Texas, plus SEC, have thought of everything. With the exception of UK and Vandy, anyone in the SEC has a shot and even some of the bad teams are not as far off as you think.

Take 2015 Tennessee for example. They had 2 TD leads on Florida and Oklahoma before blowing them and a TD lead on Alabama in 4th. Had Tennessee not choked (and had better coaching), they could have easily won all 3 games and been playoff bound. You can look through the conference and even see situations and scenarios were Ole Miss, Arkansas, Missouri, South Carolina, etc. make playoffs. To say Oklahoma would never make it is crazy. With a 12-team playoff, they might be in it almost every year because I think Oklahoma will be a top 3 program in the SEC easily.

Do you (OU fan) want to make the playoffs or actually win a Championship? Stay in the BIG12 and get bounced every year or be on equal footing with the SEC in recruiting and be able to build a better team to actually win against the top teams and win a title

 

[olympicoscar]

Maybe Baylor would have already paid for those bills had it not have to spend so much money for covering up a murder and sexual assaults.. and paying Art his full salary

PAC cities are nice but.. If UT joined them.. it would eventually fall apart like the SWC and Big12. Politics just don't add up and I really would hate the 10pm CST kickoff times when UT plays out there

True on the kickoff time. I'm now thinking that all the power conferences are going to eventually join together.

 

[Red_Alert]

It’s the smart thing I 100% agree…but the first one that gets an opportunity to bolt will do so and the others will follow if they can.

My guess is the PAC and B1G are having conversations behind the scenes to see what interest each of them has in what is left.

If I’m the B1G I keep what I got and don’t feel pressure to add anyone (and wouldn’t because there isn’t real value there).

The PAC is more interesting because they could use new markets and time zone games.

If the PAC could get Kansas, Iowa State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State that would add 4 states to their footprint, avoid private religious schools and increase their market. They aren’t ever going to find better expansion candidates at this point. The Arizona schools line up well with the Big 12 schools plus add Colorado and Utah to form a division.

It beats Boise State, Fresno and we know they won’t take BYU. Pull the trigger.

Agree with most, but Kansas is all but a lock for BIG 10 being AAU, Regional, and a monster Basketball program. Take them out of the equation. WVU can't get BIG 10 as they're not AAU and are just too far away from the PAC. They're ACC bound and need to relax.

ISU is possibly a Big 10 pick for #2 based on being AAU and region. Their only concern is the Big 10 going after Colorado over the Cyclones.

Tech, Okie Jr, KSU, TCU, and Baylor have no choice but to hold for a PAC offer to remain P5. Big 10 is an absolute NO and ACC is highly unlikely.
There's no panic when you only have ONE place to go to maintain a P5 status. Best they can do is wait for an offer from their only chance.

Again.... SEC/TX/OU want these leftovers to panic. The leftovers, Big 10, ACC. and PAC need to realize there's no reason to.

 

[Volbound1700]

I don't care what the official word from the school is. Most of my dislike for this is due to shithead Jexas fans that I have dealt with over the decades.

Fair enough

 

[Red_Alert]

My goodness you make this sound like a Cohen Brothers film.

In the end of this film, Nebraska goes off to be a low tier team in the B1G and those who remained in the Big12 are left without a home.

At $54 million/year + AAU monies, Nebraska is not a "low tier team" in the Big 10. They get equal share across the board.

Nebraska is still a blueblood and Top 10 winningest school in college football on paper. More than Oregon will be able to say for decades to come.
Nebraska is one Dabo hire away from returning to relevance. As is everybody else not named Clemson or Alabama.

 

[Volbound1700]

Agree with most, but Kansas is all but a lock for BIG 10 being AAU, Regional, and a monster Basketball program. Take them out of the equation. WVU can't get BIG 10 as they're not AAU and are just too far away from the PAC. They're ACC bound and need to relax.

ISU is possibly a Big 10 pick for #2 based on being AAU and region. Their only concern is the Big 10 going after Colorado over the Cyclones.

Tech, Okie Jr, KSU, TCU, and Baylor have no choice but to hold for a PAC offer to remain P5. Big 10 is an absolute NO and ACC is highly unlikely.
There's no panic when you only have ONE place to go to maintain a P5 status. Best they can do is wait for an offer from their only chance.

Again.... SEC/TX/OU want these leftovers to panic. The leftovers, Big 10, ACC. and PAC need to realize there's no reason to.

Not sure Iowa State can get into B1G easy. They don't add a lot and Iowa is a big hurdle for them. Iowa brings more of the Iowa market than Iowa State.

West Virginia might get academic snubbery from ACC. Either way, West Virginia is probably gone from Big12. Doesn't make sense to travel to play the current Big12. There is a 70% chance they go to American, 24% chance to ACC, and 1% chance to B1G.

Kansas could get into B1G, I agree. Another option is to keep Big12 together and turn it into a Basketball league. Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Baylor, and Kansas State are good basketball names. Perhaps recruit Witchita State, Memphis, and Oral Roberts for Basketball. The Big12 could survive as a Basketball First league and de-emphasize football.

Pac12 could just through a lifeline and grab 4 former Big 12 teams. Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Baylor make the most sense for Pac12 expansion.

 

[Red_Alert]

OU and Texas will settle and get out by 2022. The Big12 teams will get their paycheck and then quit Big12 as well. OU and Texas will make more money getting out of Big12 early and starting SEC early than they would staying and saving on the bailout costs.

That's how I see it playing out IF the remaining Big 12 schools can keep their collective heads. The PAC. ACC, and Big 10 can help them in that process by standing pat themselves.