Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC

How long?

  • Year 1

    Votes: 6 26.1%

  • Within the first 3-5 seasons

    Votes: 9 39.1%

  • At LEAST 10 years

    Votes: 6 26.1%

  • Texas BBQ style potato salad

    Votes: 2 8.7%
  • Total voters
    23
  • Poll closed .
Wild Turkey said:
I think conferences will stabilize soon (couple of moves here and there), the new P4 will kick the NCAA to the curb and then basketball will become the big item of discussion.

That will bring the P4 together to collaborate and develop a plan for a new post season basketball tournament that will kill off March Madness (trademarked name).

There is over a billion dollars to grab by stealing the tournament. If they can work that out then everything will be fine for a decade or two until everything goes completely to streaming.

At that point the PAC might be in trouble because I don’t know that they can generate the revenue from a stand alone streaming product. I think the SEC, B1G and ACC have the passionate fans in either football or basketball to pull it off. I’m not sure the PAC does and at that point a USC starts shopping. USC will determine the PAC’s future down the road.
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How many total teams are you seeing in this scenario?
 
Red_Alert said:
The only reason I go to 64 is because the teams have to play someone. I'm assuming they won't be allowed to schedule FCS or the remaining G5's. They'll be limited to league peers.

Get too low a number and they'll have to play each other twice like in the NFL, no?

Mind you I'm thinking 1 league divided into regions with equal share among all 64 teams. There won't be economic disparity like we have now with Big 10/SEC compared to Big 12/PAC/ACC.
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My problem with this is that at 64 teams, in order to keep it the payouts similar, you would need a deal of around 4 billion for 64 teams. I just don't see that happening. With a 30 team league, a 2 billion dollar deal would give each over 60 mil. Even a 3 billion dollar deal with 50 teams would payout 60mil.

Just thinking now, the SEC is almost set to be paying out 70+ mil, those teams won't want to start making less.
 
Deep Creek said:
So, if they do this regionally, the group Texas and OU would consist of basically the old Big 12 plus four more?
So it would look something like Colorado, Kansas, K-State, Nebraska, Iowa State, Mizzou, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Baylor and add maybe Arkansas, TCU, LSU and Iowa to get to 16? That only fractionally looks any better than what OU and Texas are leaving right now IMO.
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The more I think about it, the more I think 50 in the answer. 5 Regions with 10 teams in each region.
 
Blackshirts BLVD said:
My problem with this is that at 64 teams, in order to keep it the payouts similar, you would need a deal of around 4 billion for 64 teams. I just don't see that happening. With a 30 team league, a 2 billion dollar deal would give each over 60 mil. Even a 3 billion dollar deal with 50 teams would payout 60mil.

Just thinking now, the SEC is almost set to be paying out 70+ mil, those teams won't want to start making less.
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It's already there combined.

The NCAA basketball tourney is a $1 billion deal for the NCAA. That's not counting media rights revenue for conferences basketball.

Basketball is appx 25% of Big 10 revenue. A portion of that comes directly from the NCAA depending on how many teams make the tourney and how far they go.
 
Deep Creek said:
So, if they do this regionally, the group Texas and OU would consist of basically the old Big 12 plus four more?
So it would look something like Colorado, Kansas, K-State, Nebraska, Iowa State, Mizzou, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Baylor and add maybe Arkansas, TCU, LSU and Iowa to get to 16? That only fractionally looks any better than what OU and Texas are leaving right now IMO.
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no because he said 4 regions. West would be a region and where you would have to start. Pac 12 plus 4 and then move east. a couple of the teams you mention would be west region.
 
Red_Alert said:
How many total teams are you seeing in this scenario?
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Right now the SEC, PAC, B1G and ACC are at 57 including ND and we are likely to see around 6 more potentially join those conferences so your number is around 63. For basketball, you have to include the Big East into the discussion and have some at large bids so I would imagine a scenario where all the P4 conferences get about 2/3 of their guys in which would be 42 + half the Big East 5 = 48 and extend 20 spots to at large schools with 2 play-in games to get to 64.

Conferences could decide for themselves who goes and set up a committee to select the 20 at large.

Number of Teams by Conference to get Tournament Bids:
PAC - 11 (Assuming they go to 16 schools)
SEC - 11
B1G - 10
ACC - 11 (Only if ND joins as a full member in all sports otherwise ACC goes to 10 and ND is left to take their chances in the at large pool)
Big East 5
 
The Big 10 is currently $54 million x 14 = $756 million

Their next deal is highly likely to approach $1 billion with just the 14 at $70 million/team.

Mind you the conferences keep part of the media rights payouts for their overhead.

It's already a $4 billion industry across the board.
 
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Dateline March 1, 2035. FOX Sports offers Alabama and North Dakota State $125 million each to play for the Universe Championship. Game to played at UCF's new 180,000 seat stadium.
 
Red_Alert said:
The Big 10 is currently $54 million x 14 = $756 million

Their next deal is highly likely to approach $1 billion with just the 14 at $70 million/team.

Mind you the conferences keep part of the media rights payouts for their overhead.

It's already a $4 billion industry across the board.
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ESPN pays a billion dollars annually just for Monday Night Football. The NFL has squeezed every dime they can out of the networks but right now college sports are an incredible bargain when you think price to content.

If the leagues shrink then that will up the ratings for the B1G and SEC for sure and ratings = value.

Plenty of upside for revenue growth for the remaining P4 conferences but it will be a race to get eyeballs and ratings because that is what matters.

Watch how important game slots and staging big matchups on different weeks becomes. It’s going to matter big time in the future.
 
What will likely happen is the 64 that separate will change/remove the FBS moniker.

The argument from the G5's regarding exclusion from the CFP is that they're "FBS" too.
i.e. The Akron Zips are FBS.
 
Deep Creek said:
Well, here we go. According to Dennis Dodd, the only teams left that move the needle on the level of Texas and Oklahoma are Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame and USC...and three of those four are non starters.

What about USC and the PAC

"While college sports wonders whether there will be a total reset of the competitive and financial models, for now, the talking points have come down to the statuses of a precious few schools. There are four pieces left on the board, per se, that approach the value of Texas and Oklahoma: Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame and USC."

"Ohio State and Michigan have no interest in leaving the Big Ten. Currently the richest, oldest conference in existence, it is paying members approximately $54 million per year....Until further notice, Notre Dame is locked into its independence....That leaves USC. The Trojans have options. USC has one of the most recognizable brands in sports. It resides in the nation's second-biggest television market. It possesses desirable academics and athletics. It would likely enhance any conference's media rights contract."
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USC's problem is geography. The SEC and B1G are the only conferences that make sense to move to, and the distance seems to be a problem. I suppose the B1G could add Kansas and USC and call it quits.
 
Mind you I'm just an armchair QB, sitting in his fat-man chair, posting my thoughts on a message board. I have no idea where this is going or if I'll even be alive when it gets there.

What I can do is break out my 4 function 1970's Ti calculator and evaluate what monies are already there for a 64 team league at equal share.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
USC's problem is geography. The SEC and B1G are the only conferences that make sense to move to, and the distance seems to be a problem. I suppose the B1G could add Kansas and USC and call it quits.
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USC's problem is any of the PAC's problem.

A bad media rights deal struck by Larry Scott.

We don't know Southern Cal's overall $$ revenue numbers though because being private they don't release them.
 
So this means OK TX LSU UGA Alabama all have new open ooc dates.
 
Red_Alert said:
USC's problem is any of the PAC's problem.

A bad media rights deal struck by Larry Scott.

We don't know Southern Cal's overall $$ revenue numbers though because being private they don't release them.
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There is one way out of the PAC's dilemma and that would be to fold the current PAC which would void all contracts and then form a new conference. What I would do is cherry-pick the PAC, Big 12, and others to form the best conference that you could. For example:

USC
UCLA
Standford
Washington
Oregon
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
Utah
BYU
Kansas
Oklahoma State
Boise State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Iowa State

Drop
 
OlyDuck said:
no because he said 4 regions. West would be a region and where you would have to start. Pac 12 plus 4 and then move east. a couple of the teams you mention would be west region.
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If I look at a map, going West to East would mean the current PAC 12 plus Texas Tech for 13...and then it gets dicey. Norman, Fort Worth, Waco and Austin are all on I-35. Without looking up longitude, it appears Austin is the furthest West. Norman and Fort Worth look about the same with Baylor being ever so slightly East of all three. K-State is just a little more East than those four. Again, using I-35 as the line.

It will get even more dicey when you head further East and then divide North/South.
 
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