So here are my thoughts:
1. Rock Your World: I was mixed on this horse coming into the Derby and ended up tossing him, which proved to be the right move. But he now enters a race where he is very likely to get the lead and I think he's got the endurance and pedigree to go gate to wire. If you watch his gallop out of the Santa Anita Derby, he was still full of run at the end of that one. Yes, he was riding a golden rail that day but he's still got a ton of talent and should get a perfect trip. Rosario's foot was out of the iron at the start of the Derby, Rock Your World got bumped hard, and it was over from there. Don't bet on him missing the break this time.
2. Essential Quality: He's been the most consistent of this crop and doesn't have to worry about a wide trip like he's had in a lot of his previous races. He was a favorite in the Derby for a reason and he'll likely be the favorite in this one. He should sit nicely off the pace and make his move at the top of the stretch.
3. Hot Rod Charlie: Many people will say he doesn't have the pedigree, but he's out of Oxbow (winner of the Preakness) and Oxbow was out of Awesome Again (multiple winner at classic distances). Plus he just hasn't run a bad race as a 3 year old and O'Neill will have him ready once again to run big in the Belmont. In horizontal bets, I'm going to use HRC and the two horses above him.
4. Rombauer: I'm still kicking myself for not putting him on top in the Preakness. Just another race where I was very close to a big payday but missing a few pieces. That said, I think the time to bet him was last race. He's a very good horse...but he's on the smaller side, so I'm not sure how much he'll like running back in 3 weeks, that big run in the Preakness was a significant top from his prior races, and he now faces much tougher competition (namely, the top 4 post time choices in the Derby). He'll also be at a shorter price than the Preakness...but if you love him, I won't fault you for putting him on top. There have been plenty of horses who ran well in the Preakness to come back strong in the Belmont. He's just not for me this time around.
5. Known Agenda: I loved this horse for the Derby and really shouldn't dismiss him so take note of this and you'll probably make some money if you bet him to win since I'm going to put him in the winner's circle by tossing him. He's got great pedigree and he's a grinder that can churn out 24-second quarter miles. But none of the Florida horses have really shown much this year and you've got to start to wonder if maybe the crop down there wasn't very good. That said, Pletcher knows how to win this race and Pletcher has been gushing about this horse. The question is...is he good enough? I guess we'll find out.
6. Overtook: The last horse I'll discuss is Overtook who adds blinkers and comes out of the Peter Pan. I'm not crazy about him...but his pedigree screams distance and it's interesting that Pletcher runs him here even though he only finished 3rd in the Peter Pan. He was wide in that race so look for him to improve a bit with a better trip. I don't like him much to win the race, but he could end up in the money at big odds.
Horizontal wagers - use Rock Your World, Essential Quality, and Hot Rod Charlie.
Win bet - Rock Your World
Trifecta bet - Rock Your World keyed over Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie, Rombauer, Known Agenda, Overtook
Good luck.
