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Yeah their non con was embarrassingly bad which will be what hurts them forsure if they are punished.
I would be stunned if they missed the tournament tho. I think with how highly regarded the top 4 of the BE are the committee wont have a situation where only those 4 make it. Providence will get credit for being the clear "best of the rest"
I think they'll get there, but their seed has nosedived the last 3 weeks. I get where you're coming from in regards to the BE aspect, but the problem for them is that they were only 3-6 against that group, and took an awful loss to the Hall. I will say it does help, like you said, that the committee thought pretty highly of the BE in the committee reveal a couple weeks back, could bode well for them.