There are those that believe ANY P5 team has the same chance as the others. And some even think G5s have the same chance.
I'm on record as saying I think G5s should have their own playoff. The reason they probably won't is because the P5s really don't want them to go that way and will keep throwing just enough money at them to prevent it.
@Wizardhawk seems to understand this as well as anyone. And this article from Dennis Dodd is pretty good...especially the revenue distribution portion. The other topics are Two Loss Teams, Will Realignment Slow?, Cinderella and Job Security.
CFP expansion and the Future
Besides the obvious increase in revenue, it looks like this is what drove the presidents to step in.
"Consolidation. Never in the history of the game have the game's best brands and programs been concentrated in such small spaces (two conferences at the top of the game). The SEC and Big Ten were not only monopolizing the money, viewers and talent, they were monopolizing the game.
Ultimately, that wasn't good. Finally, the presidents decided all of it wasn't good enough.
Those 11 CFP presidents acted decisively Friday by voting unanimously to expand the four-team bracket to 12 teams beginning in 2026 at the latest. They did what the commissioners failed to do: agree.
"What motivated the presidents, me as well, is that we need to have an opportunity for more participation for our nation's national championship tournament," said CFP Board of Managers chairman Mark Keenum, president of Mississippi State. "Having only four teams, we felt like that's not fair to our student-athletes."
Revenue distribution
This is the next-biggest task for conference commissioners and university presidents to tackle, several sources told CBS Sports. It must be determined what fair compensation looks like for the conferences, a task last undertaken when CFP started in 2014.
Basically, whatever kind of weight the SEC and Big Ten throw around the room will be a huge factor. In expansion, those conferences are trading money for access. They'll get their money, but the remaining eight conferences get a better shot at the playoff. That will be a first.
That access -- tripling the field -- keeps the feds away from collusion or antitrust accusations from the smaller conferences. Those lesser leagues now have more access than ever. That in itself smothers any talk of a monopoly.
In 2021, the Power Five conferences each got $74 million annually from the CFP for, well, being Power Five conferences. The Group of Five split $95 million, about 20% of the total annual net distribution. Back when the CFP was formed, that percentage was basically agreed upon as a number that would keep the Group of Five from suing. With access going from four to 12, that reinforces the unlikely prospect of any legal action.
