I don't see any scenario where Ball State, VMI, NMSU and NAU are in the playoffs.
tOfficial Twelve Team Playoff thread
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No, but you're absolutely going to get Georgia vs. some random 3 loss B10 team. Or Alabama vs. some 3 loss B12 team. And you're going to get playoff Bama, not 1 game of the season Bama.
We already see blowouts occasionally in a 4 team playoff because the difference between top 1/2 is different than even 3/4. We're adding 8 more teams to that.
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Meh, I think it’s fine. I think 6 or 8 would be better because we’ve seen quite a few blowouts already with 1/4. If nothing else the first couple matchups between lower ranked teams might be interesting and then the championship game will be interesting.
G5 should have their own playoffs
G5 should have their own playoffs
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2 of those dont mater in the long run because they are FCS and would never be eligible for the playoff
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just as likely to have a 3 loss B10, ACC, BigXII, Pac or SEC team in that mix.
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If Michigan has 2-3 losses, I don't want to be in the playoff.
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Ball State won the conference as recently as 2020 and the MAC got the auto bid to NY6 with Western Michigan in 2016. in theory they could
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but would you be ok with Michigan basketball winning March Madness from a 6 seed?
I know. Point I was making is the the regular is already “diminished” to a point with games such as those.
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Yes. Because in basketball a 6 seed actually has a shot to win the national championship.
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so you dont think a 6 seed 2 loss team could in football?
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I'm not sure that will translate exactly. I don't think a team ranked outside the top 6 on any given year has a legitimate shot at winning the national title in a 12 team playoff. In fact, I'd put that shot at 0%. What will happen is that we'll see the first few rounds of the playoff full of blowout wins for the actually good teams. There's a massive difference come the end of the season in 1-6, and 6-12...unlike basketball where the differences on any given day can often be very minor. There is no "we want Bama" in the college basketball world. Teams of that dominance caliber don't exist.
…and the #1 seeds in the CFP haven’t won as often as other seeds. Hell, the #4 seed won it the first year.
If we want to use seeding as the criteria to crown a champ, might as well go back to pre BCS days. I like ‘em determining it on a playoff field, not just voting on it per regular season results only.
Maybe not now but they did at one time. (John Wooden’s UCLA run.). And Bama’s “dominance caliber” won’t last forever either.
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But in football, there's a massive difference between the top 6 teams an the 6-12 ranked teams. Especially 1 vs. 12. I'm not saying upsets won't happen, they will. But more likely you'll see blowouts in those early games. And any team lucky enough to get an upset, will probably be taken out the following game; before even sniffing the national championship game.
I would say there was a masive difference in Georgia and Bama last year and the next 10. Wasn’t a hell of a lot of difference in Cincy and Michigan versus a Utah, Ohio State, Baylor, etc last year either. 5-12 would have held up against Cincy and Michigan and may well have been better than .500 against them. Why not give those 5-12s a playoff shot and let them decide things head to head on the field? What’s the down side if some of those games are blowouts?
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Because, as I've already pointed out, by giving them "a shot" we're devaluing the regular season. Their "shot" IS the regular season right now. Making the playoff should be something special; because making the national championship game in CFB has always been a hard achievement. Two losses in the regular season all but guaranteed you were out most years. We're now saying pretty much all P5 teams that finish with 2 losses or less are in. And likely a 3 loss team or two will make it. There's nothing special about it. Average teams with easy schedules (like Michigan's this year) will make it with ease. Who cares if we lose to Michigan State and Ohio State this year (the only ranked teams on our schedule), we win the rest and we're probably in. That's a stupid system. Regular season losses no longer come with the soul crushing reality of what they mean. We are trading that in to give teams like UCF a chance at getting blown out by Alabama in the playoffs.
At least in the 4 team playoff you may possibly get dinged for playing cupcakes. But in a 12 team, there's legitimately no reason to schedule tough teams. Get your 4 guaranteed wins, and you're 6 wins away from a playoff birth.
trojanfan12
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Also, an expanded playoff may spread some of the talent around. Part of the reason teams like Bama, Georgia and tOSU keep making the playoff is because they are the only teams that have shown that they can get to the cfp pretty much every year. And the kids keep picking them because they know there's a strong chance they will be in the cfp every year they are in college.
Now, more teams will be able to say that, so maybe some of those start looking at other programs? Especially if it means playing right away rather than having to redshirt and/or ride the bench for a season or 2.
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I posted this over at Rivals:
Keep an open mind and read through this. I'd like to think I've thought of most objections. What do you say?
Cliffs on what the expansion will look like
Look at the SEC schedule and forget the OOC games we will play. Instead of playing Vandy, UK, and Missouri each year, we will get AU, UF, and USCjr every year, and rotate everyone else every other year. That means we will play Bama, LSU, OU, TX, ATM, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and the rest in some type of rotating schedule that guarantees about 6 premiere games per year. Not 1 or 2. Right now the SEC is lucky to have 2 premiere games on any given weekend. Now we will get 4 or games like that per week.
Finally, the argument that this makes for a less meaningful regular season ignores that for almost all schools the regular season is meaningless before it even starts. After the first week, 66 teams are eliminated. By the end of September, 90% of the teams in CFB are eliminated from the CFP. By the end of October, you are down to 4 - 6 teams. That means that the bulk of the regular season games are meaningless. That's what I call a terrible regular season. The minute that the BCS era began and focus turned more to the national champ than, say, the winner of the conferences and the top bowls, the regular season games became more and more irrelevant. With a 12-team playoff, 20-30 (25%) teams will be in the hunt for one of the 12 slots. That makes the regular season way more relevant than it is now. And, because the 12-team CFP has byes to play for, and home field advantage to play for, it makes the regular season games and conference championships more important not less. So we have more teams in all season long, and far more to play for up until the end. That's a feature, not a bug.
Once you decide you want AQs, 8 doesn't work. With 6 AQs, that leaves only 2 at-large/wildcard teams. No way the SEC was going to go from 4 at-large to 2. That's what 8 would have done. Also, 8 doesn't give you byes, and you have to have the byes. If you don't have byes, then teams that get into the CFP that didn't play in a CCG have an advantage. Think of 2017 when Bama didn't get into the SECCG but won the natty. We wouldn't want them getting in with a week off. By giving byes to the top 4 conference champs, a team like 2017 Bama and even 2021 UGA have to work harder for not getting into the CCG, or not winning it. That is a good thing.
The byes also work because they let you match up the 5-12 teams in the first round. Those games will be far more competitive than if you let the best play the worst. Think of the UGA v. Cincinnati Peach Bowl, or the Baylor v. Oklahoma State game last year. Those would be the kinds of games you are going to get in the first round and they will be a blast to watch, especially being on campus.
The byes and the home team hosting the first round are also genius because they provide even more regular season incentives. For those who say the regular season doesn't matter, or the CCGs don't matter, they matter more than ever. You want badly to get a bye, and if you can't get that you want to have a home game.
A 12-team format also really opens up the number of teams who will be in the hunt at the end of the year. I have seen some estimates that in late October you could have as many as 30 teams still in contention for the 12th seed, or for a conference championship. At least 20 teams will be in conference championship games with at least 12 competing for 6 AQs. Then you have late-season games that matter to see if they can squeeze into that 12th spot.
At the end of the day, we knew this was going to happen once the adults were in charge. The Alliance commissioners embarrassed themselves delaying this change and it took the Presidents to get it done. With this done, what does CFB look like in the next 5 years?
Keep an open mind and read through this. I'd like to think I've thought of most objections. What do you say?
Cliffs on what the expansion will look like
- There will be a committee.
- There will be 12 teams.
- The top 6 conference champions (CCs) are automatically qualified (AQs). This can be 5 P5s, plus 1 G5, or it could be 4 P5s and 2 G5s. But, after conference championship week (CCW) the top 6 ranked CCs are in.
- Then the next 6 ranked teams are in.
- The top 4 ranked CCs get a bye.
- The next 4 ranked teams (5-8) will host home games against teams ranked 9-12. So you will get 5 v. 12, 6 v. 11, 7 v. 10, and 8 v. 9. If a team wants, they can host the game at an indoor stadium instead of their home field. Think of those in the quarter-finals
- The quarter finals will be 1 v. winner of 8/9, 2 v. 7/10, 3 v. 6/11, and then 4 v. 5/12. There has been some indication that they won't reseed. For example, let's say that 8 beats 9, but 10, 11, and 12 all win. Shouldn't the no. 1 team get to play the 12th ranked team and not the 8th ranked team? Reseeding typically doesn't happen in playoffs in other sports, but let's see if it does.
- The quarter-finals would likely be played at 4 of the NY6 Bowls.
- The semi-finals would be played at the other 2 NY6 bowls.
- The NC game would be bid out as it is now.
- Who will broadcast it? I think you can count on ESPN, Fox, and others. The success of the B1G with their TV contract, plus the way the pro sports all do multiple media partners means this is a given.
- What about the Rose Bowl which always wants to play on January 1? Personally, they can kiss my ...
- How is the money divided?
- How do they make sure player safety is covered in that there will be 16 games, the possibility of a team playing 17?
- When will it take place? If the schedule isn't changed, it would be the first set of games on the second weekend of December. Then Finals week, and then quarter finals around January 1, semis around January 8, and then the NC around January 15. This does pose some conflicts with the Army/Navy game in December, and the NFL in January. Those have to be worked out. Or, they could start the season in what is now called week 0, with Conference Championships over Thanksgiving weekend, and then round 1 the first week of December. Then depending on the bowls' involvement, you might do the quarters the second week of December. I have to think all that through. You have the NFL to consider, and then there's the idea that the month break is good or bad for teams.
- This will definitely make the regular season less meaningful.
- In the old days "pre BCS and even during the BCS", every game was hugely important during the season. Lose one in September and 99% of the time championship aspirations went "poof". Now, those upsets we love to see of top 10 teams will never be as impactful. Sudden death had more drama.
- So goodbye to everything that makes college football so much better than the NFL.
Look at the SEC schedule and forget the OOC games we will play. Instead of playing Vandy, UK, and Missouri each year, we will get AU, UF, and USCjr every year, and rotate everyone else every other year. That means we will play Bama, LSU, OU, TX, ATM, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and the rest in some type of rotating schedule that guarantees about 6 premiere games per year. Not 1 or 2. Right now the SEC is lucky to have 2 premiere games on any given weekend. Now we will get 4 or games like that per week.
Finally, the argument that this makes for a less meaningful regular season ignores that for almost all schools the regular season is meaningless before it even starts. After the first week, 66 teams are eliminated. By the end of September, 90% of the teams in CFB are eliminated from the CFP. By the end of October, you are down to 4 - 6 teams. That means that the bulk of the regular season games are meaningless. That's what I call a terrible regular season. The minute that the BCS era began and focus turned more to the national champ than, say, the winner of the conferences and the top bowls, the regular season games became more and more irrelevant. With a 12-team playoff, 20-30 (25%) teams will be in the hunt for one of the 12 slots. That makes the regular season way more relevant than it is now. And, because the 12-team CFP has byes to play for, and home field advantage to play for, it makes the regular season games and conference championships more important not less. So we have more teams in all season long, and far more to play for up until the end. That's a feature, not a bug.
- Too many teams are getting in
- Why AQs?
- We don't need byes.
- Boo. I hate the idea of wild cards. Terrible.
- I liked 8.
- So participation trophies have been approved for college football. How sweet.
- A lot of 1-4, 2-3 matchups havent been good.
- I personally agree. Some of these 1-12, 2-11, 3-10 matchups are going to be less than desirable imo.
- 12 seems a bit much but I won’t complain, even though 8 would make more sense to me.
- I would have thought 8 was plenty. Look for at least 3 SEC teams to be in final 6 every year.
- 12 teams is way too much fat. 6-8 is ideal.
- I’ve heard there will be a bye for possibly the top 4 teams. Must be an incentive to compete and finish at the top.
- I'd imagine with it being 12, the top 4 may have a bye. But if not, yeah those matchups will be pretty dumb.
- Hoping 1-4 get byes and 5-12 play. That would be much better than 1 vs 12 etc
Once you decide you want AQs, 8 doesn't work. With 6 AQs, that leaves only 2 at-large/wildcard teams. No way the SEC was going to go from 4 at-large to 2. That's what 8 would have done. Also, 8 doesn't give you byes, and you have to have the byes. If you don't have byes, then teams that get into the CFP that didn't play in a CCG have an advantage. Think of 2017 when Bama didn't get into the SECCG but won the natty. We wouldn't want them getting in with a week off. By giving byes to the top 4 conference champs, a team like 2017 Bama and even 2021 UGA have to work harder for not getting into the CCG, or not winning it. That is a good thing.
The byes also work because they let you match up the 5-12 teams in the first round. Those games will be far more competitive than if you let the best play the worst. Think of the UGA v. Cincinnati Peach Bowl, or the Baylor v. Oklahoma State game last year. Those would be the kinds of games you are going to get in the first round and they will be a blast to watch, especially being on campus.
The byes and the home team hosting the first round are also genius because they provide even more regular season incentives. For those who say the regular season doesn't matter, or the CCGs don't matter, they matter more than ever. You want badly to get a bye, and if you can't get that you want to have a home game.
A 12-team format also really opens up the number of teams who will be in the hunt at the end of the year. I have seen some estimates that in late October you could have as many as 30 teams still in contention for the 12th seed, or for a conference championship. At least 20 teams will be in conference championship games with at least 12 competing for 6 AQs. Then you have late-season games that matter to see if they can squeeze into that 12th spot.
- This is just a cash grab and not for the good of the game
- Just heard that on the radio. Wow. Dawgs will be in the playoffs perpetually.
- 10-game regular season or something?
- I hate a 12-team playoff. The only good thing it will keep a lot of good players on playoff teams from opting out.
- So a team, who wins a conference title game and gets seeded 5th, could play 17 games.
- oh well fingers crossed for on campus playoff games
- So basically new years six bowls are the playoffs. Great.
- My main qualm is that you could have the 5th best team, lose in the opening round, and your season is over in mid-December.
At the end of the day, we knew this was going to happen once the adults were in charge. The Alliance commissioners embarrassed themselves delaying this change and it took the Presidents to get it done. With this done, what does CFB look like in the next 5 years?
- CFP details will get worked out, and we will have a 12-team CFP by 2026, and I'd bet we get it sooner like in 2024.
- The PAC and B12 will work through their realignment issues and new TV contracts.
- OU and TX will move to the SEC as soon as the CFP is done. UCLA and USC to the B1G in 2024.
- NIL will smooth out, but within 5 years there will be direct payments to the players.
- The transfer portal smooths out with set periods and not unlimited transfers - this passed a few days ago.
- The CFP group will take over the management of college football as it splits off from the NCAA. Part of the CFP profits will pay for that management.
- UGA will be in the CFP every year as far as long as CKS is here.
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Nah, the teams with money will continue to dominate recruiting. I think actual team performance and things like national titles will matter less and less to top recruits. They want money and they want the best shot at getting to the NFL. That's why we've started seeing this trend of players sitting out bowl games/end of seasons.