Updated Bracketology 1.6.25

ericd7633

ericd7633

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SOUTH REGIONAL (Atlanta, GA)

1. AUBURN (SEC)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI (OVC)
- Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY)
8. Nebraska
9. Baylor

5. UTAH STATE (MTN. WEST)
12. BRADLEY (MVC)
- Ball Arena (Denver, CO)
4. Michigan State
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)

6. Purdue
11. UC SAN DIEGO (BIG WEST)
- Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse (Cleveland, OH)
3. Florida
14. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NEC)

7. Ole Miss
10. Cincinnati
- Amica Mutual Pavilion (Providence, RI)
2. DUKE (ACC)
15. NORTHERN COLORADO (BIG SKY)

EAST REGIONAL (NEWARK, NJ)

1. Iowa State
16. NAVY (PATRIOT)/MERRIMACK (MAAC)
- Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee, WI)
8. Vanderbilt
9. Arizona State

5. Uconn
12. MCNESSE (SOUTHLAND)
- Amica Mutual Pavilion (Providence, RI)
4. Illinois
13. SAMFORD (SO. CON)

6. Pittsburgh
11. Ohio State/Dayton
- Intrust Bank Arena (Wichita, KS)
3. Texas A&M
14. UTEP (CONF USA)

7. UCLA
10. Arizona
- Lenovo Center (Raleigh, NC)
2. Kentucky
15. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)

MIDWEST REGIONAL (INDIANAPOLIS, IN)

1. Tennessee
16. UNC ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)
- Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY)
8. Clemson
9. St. Mary’s

5. Oklahoma
12. LIPSCOMB (ASUN)
- Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle, WA)
4. Gonzaga
13. GRAND CANYON (WAC)

6. Houston
11. Arkansas
- Intrust Bank Arena (Wichita, KS)
3. Mississippi State
14. ELON (CAA)

7. West Virginia
10. Louisville
- Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle, WA)
2. Oregon
15. AKRON (MAC)

WEST REGIONAL (SAN FRANCISCO, CA)

1. MARQUETTE (BIG EAST)
16. YOUNGSTOWN STATE (HORIZON)
- Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse (Cleveland, OH)
8. Maryland
9. Georgia

5. MICHIGAN (B1G)
12. ST. BONAVENTURE (A10)
- Ball Arena (Denver, CO)
4. Kansas
13. YALE (IVY)

6. Wisconsin
11. Washington State/North Carolina
- Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee, WI)
3. MEMPHIS (AAC)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

7. San Diego State
10. St. John’s
- Lenovo Center (Raleigh, NC)
2. Alabama
15. UMASS LOWELL (AM. EAST)

Top 10 on “S” Curve: Auburn, Tennessee, Iowa State, Marquette, Alabama, Duke, Kentucky, Oregon, Florida, Texas A&M
Last 4 BYES: Cincinnati, St. John’s, Arizona, Louisville
Last 4 IN: Ohio State, Washington State, North Carolina, Dayton
First 4 OUT: New Mexico, Missouri, Texas Tech, Georgetown
Next 4 OUT: Texas, SMU, Penn State, Creighton

Bids By Conference:

SEC: 12
B1G: 10
Big 12: 8
ACC: 5
Big East: 3
WCC: 3
Mtn. West: 2
A10: 2
 
a 3 seed and we get to beat up on Jexas (sorta)?

Score.
 
My analysis:

At the top of the bracket: The first 3 #1 seeds have already separated themselves from the pack just a bit. Auburn with the amount of truly elite wins, Tennessee with being undefeated, and Iowa State with a good combination of wins/metrics and the lone loss being to the #1 overall seed. The last #1 seed (Marquette in this projection) through the overall #11 seed Mississippi State, there is very little separation. It makes it incredibly difficult to seed, along with all the SEC teams in the top half of the bracket.

Given all the SEC teams, and Duke that are very good and given the pod locations, fighting to get Raleigh and Lexington will be interesting. In this projection, Auburn and Tennessee go to Rupp Arena and Bama and Kentucky to Raleigh for location preference. Because of that Duke travels to Rhode Island and Florida to Cleveland (the next closest geographical preference) Duke would obviously prefer Raleigh then Rupp, but as now would be behind those 4 SEC teams. Same with Florida.

This years mid major pool of teams is much shorter than last season. Last year mid major schools accounted for 8 total at larges. This projection only has 4 with two of them being among the last 4 IN. There isn't a ton of potential either on the outside looking in. New Mexico has a great win against UCLA, but a Q4 loss vs. NMSU. Nobody else has really stepped forward in the Mtn. West, A10, WCC or American. Drake took a huge step back in MVC play with two bad losses already.

At the bottom of the bracket are teams consisting of gaudy record, but few quality wins. Out of the teams on the outside right now, I think Georgetown has the best path to play themselves up into the bracket, with a fairly comfortable seed. They're much improved and have a Big East schedule to do. They will need to avoid being in the cut line, because if it's close they'll likely get pushed out because of their terrible OOC.

The SEC, B1G and B12 combined for 30 teams in this projection. If I put an o/u on the teams from those conferences I'd put it at 29.5 for now. And the over might be a great bet.
 
Notable bracket games this week:

Monday, January 6th:

Ohio State (Last 4 IN) at Minnesota - 9:00 | FS1

Tuesday, January 7th:

St. John's (Last 4 BYES) at Xavier - 6:30 | FS1
#1 Tennessee at #8 Florida - 7:00 | ESPN2
Pitt at #4 Duke - 7:00 | ESPN
#6 Kentucky at UGA - 7:00 | SECN
Arizona (Last 4 BYES) at #21 West Virginia - 7:00 | ESPN+
Clemson at Louisville (Last 4 BYES) - 7:00 | ESPNU
Georgetown (First 4 OUT) at #7 Marquette - 8:00 | CBSSN
Cincinnati (Last 4 BYES) at Baylor - 8:00 | ESPN+
#2 Auburn at Texas (Next 4 OUT) - 9:00 | ESPN2
#14 Mississippi State at Vanderbilt - 9:00 | ESPNU
Texas Tech (First 4 OUT) at BYU - 9:00 | ESPN+
SMU (Next 4 OUT) at North Carolina (Last 4 IN) - 9:00 | ACCN
LSU at Missouri (First 4 OUT) - 9:00 | SECN
#24 Michigan at #22 UCLA - 10:00 | Peacock
New Mexico (First 4 OUT) at Wyoming - 10:00 | CBSSN

Wednesday, January 8th:

#23 Ole Miss at Arkansas - 7:00 | ESPN2
Dayton (Last 4 IN) at Umass - 7:00 | Peacock
#10 Texas A&M at #17 Oklahoma - 9:00 | SECN
Arizona State at #11 Kansas - 9:00 | ESPN2
Penn State (Next 4 OUT) at #13 Illinois - 9:00 | BTN

Thursday, January 9th:

#15 Oregon at Ohio State (Last 4 IN) - 6:00 | BTN

Friday, January 9th:

#22 UCLA at Maryland - 8:00 | FOX

Saturday, January 11th:

#3 Iowa State at Texas Tech (First 4 OUT) - 2:00 | ESPN
#9 Uconn at Georgetown (First 4 OUT) - 2:00
#11 Kansas at Cincinnati (Last 4 BYES) - 2:00 | ESPN+
Vanderbilt at Missouri (First 4 OUT) - 3:30 | SECN
#8 Florida at Arkansas - 4:00 | ESPN
North Carolina (Last 4 IN) at NC State - 4:00 | ACCN
#1 Tennessee at Texas (Next 4 OUT) - 6:00 | ESPN
#17 Oklahoma at Georgia - 6:00
Villanova at St. John's (Last 4 BYES) - 7:00 | CBSSN
#5 Alabama at #10 Texas A&M - 8:00 | ESPN
#6 Kentucky at #14 Mississippi State - 8:30 | SECN
Washington State (Last 4 IN) at #18 Gonzaga - 9:00 | EPSN+

Sunday, January 12th:

#15 Oregon at Penn State (Next 4 OUT) - 4:00 | BTN
 
ericd7633 said:
Huge win. Seed line bump up the bracket for sure. 19 wins should be enough to get a bid.
Click to expand...
It would be nice to at least make the tourney. Despite this season, UGA football is a top program and the baseball program finally seems to be waking up too
 
Illustrious Potentate said:
It would be nice to at least make the tourney. Despite this season, UGA football is a top program and the baseball program finally seems to be waking up too
Click to expand...

I'd be pretty surprised if uga didn't make it. Newell is a beast. I've only seen UGA a couple times this year, last night and the ND game, but they've been impressive both times.
 
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