USC and Oregon To B1G rumor....

Thiefery · Apr 15, 2022

WhosYourDawggy said:
The numbers don't work. ND currently gets $15 million for the TV rights. That will get renegotiated in 2025. And they get some TV money from the ACC in non-football sports. About $5 million. So that's $20 million. Let's call it $25 and double it in 2025. That won't happen, but I am being way optimistic to show you why the numbers don't work for anyone else to be independent. If ND get's $50 million, no one will get close to that as an independent ... they are the top of the market. By 2026, even the B12 will be getting $55 million a year. So no school can get even as much as teams in the B12 will get without OU and TX. That's too much money to give up.

in total???

WhosYourDawggy · Apr 16, 2022

Thiefery said:
in total???

Each team.

Thiefery · Apr 16, 2022

WhosYourDawggy said:
Each team.

lol man i cannot see them grabbing that much per team.. they don't even make that now WITH UT and ou in the conference

Deep Creek · Apr 16, 2022

WhosYourDawggy said:
The numbers don't work. ND currently gets $15 million for the TV rights. That will get renegotiated in 2025. And they get some TV money from the ACC in non-football sports. About $5 million. So that's $20 million. Let's call it $25 and double it in 2025. That won't happen, but I am being way optimistic to show you why the numbers don't work for anyone else to be independent. If ND get's $50 million, no one will get close to that as an independent ... they are the top of the market. By 2026, even the B12 will be getting $55 million a year. So no school can get even as much as teams in the B12 will get without OU and TX. That's too much money to give up.

The idea was to sell each game ala carte for a lot of independents. I'm not good at researching it but I believe the 4 million viewer mark has been set as the point where media partners are willing to pay premium prices.

If the market value of all twelve games were broken down on an individual basis, I don't see USC's current schedule busting that 4 mil mark with the possible exception of the USC/Notre Dame game. So they really only play one game the broadcasters desire enough to pay up. (Maybe two with the UCLA game.) But, if their schedule included say UCLA (Cross town rival ya know) #1ACC team (Clem, FSU, Miami), #2 B1G (tOSU, Michigan, Penn State), #1 Big 12 (Okie Lite, Baylor,), #3SEC (LSU, A&M, Florida), Notre Dame, BYU plus five mid range teams from the P5 schoos, one would think that would be more attractive than their current schedule of Rice, Stanford, Fresno State, Oregon State, AZ State, Wazzou, Utah, Arizona, Colorado. Of course those other P5 teams listed would have to be independent or willing to schedule USC. Again, each game would be negotiated individually.

I've just been under the impression the media is willing to pay for some less attractive matchups just to get the attractive ones. Like they really want tOSU/Michigan but are willing to broadcast Illinois/Rutgers just to get the former. No?

Deep Creek · Apr 16, 2022

Thiefery said:
in total???

WhosYourDawggy said:
Each team.

Thiefery said:
lol man i cannot see them grabbing that much per team.. they don't even make that now WITH UT and ou in the conference

I'm with that rusty cow on this you ya old hairy dawg. I just don't see the attractiveness of the four additions being enough to make up for the loss of OU and Texas. Yeah, maybe Cincy will bring some Ohio/Northern Kentucky eyeballs and UCF some Florida eyeballs (they are the third best draw out of Florida), but neither of those are going to draw the national casual CFB eyeballs from Montana or Connecticut like Texas and Oklahoma do.

BYU will draw the LDS eyeballs from all over the globe so that will help offset it a little. Houston brings zero new eyeballs. The conference was already Texas heavy with Tech, Baylor and TCU.

Hope you are right and the rusty cow is wrong for the sake of the minor sports at the remaining 8. But I'm afraid they have HUGE budget cuts coming across the board.

duckboy33 · Apr 16, 2022

Deep Creek said:
I'm with that rusty cow on this you ya old hairy dawg. I just don't see the attractiveness of the four additions being enough to make up for the loss of OU and Texas. Yeah, maybe Cincy will bring some Ohio/Northern Kentucky eyeballs and UCF some Florida eyeballs (they are the third best draw out of Florida), but neither of those are going to draw the national casual CFB eyeballs from Montana or Connecticut like Texas and Oklahoma do.

BYU will draw the LDS eyeballs from all over the globe so that will help offset it a little. Houston brings zero new eyeballs. The conference was already Texas heavy with Tech, Baylor and TCU.

Hope you are right and the rusty cow is wrong for the sake of the minor sports at the remaining 8. But I'm afraid they have HUGE budget cuts coming across the board.

Yeah, I've seen projections that the Big 12 won't see a big dip in TV revenue but I honestly don't see how that's possible. The additions don't come anywhere close to what they are going to lose. And now they have to split the pot 12 ways instead of 10.

WhosYourDawggy · Apr 16, 2022

Deep Creek said:
The idea was to sell each game ala carte for a lot of independents. I'm not good at researching it but I believe the 4 million viewer mark has been set as the point where media partners are willing to pay premium prices.

If the market value of all twelve games were broken down on an individual basis, I don't see USC's current schedule busting that 4 mil mark with the possible exception of the USC/Notre Dame game. So they really only play one game the broadcasters desire enough to pay up. (Maybe two with the UCLA game.) But, if their schedule included say UCLA (Cross town rival ya know) #1ACC team (Clem, FSU, Miami), #2 B1G (tOSU, Michigan, Penn State), #1 Big 12 (Okie Lite, Baylor,), #3SEC (LSU, A&M, Florida), Notre Dame, BYU plus five mid range teams from the P5 schoos, one would think that would be more attractive than their current schedule of Rice, Stanford, Fresno State, Oregon State, AZ State, Wazzou, Utah, Arizona, Colorado. Of course those other P5 teams listed would have to be independent or willing to schedule USC. Again, each game would be negotiated individually.

I've just been under the impression the media is willing to pay for some less attractive matchups just to get the attractive ones. Like they really want tOSU/Michigan but are willing to broadcast Illinois/Rutgers just to get the former. No?

[Edit] - not meaning to be totally negative on this ... the idea is intriguing. If anyone could pull it off, USC might be that team.

Frist, no one would play such a schedule as it would totally preclude you winning a natty. USC would be 6-6 in that schedule. That's why conferences, with some whipping boys makes more money.

I am with you on the marquee matchups being where the money is. I just can't see a team being able to do independently what at least the B1G and SEC can do. Probably not what the others can do.

Also, doubt the PAC would allow them to stay for all other sports but football. That's something ND backed into. Leaving is a different story altogether.

WhosYourDawggy · Apr 16, 2022

duckboy33 said:
Yeah, I've seen projections that the Big 12 won't see a big dip in TV revenue but I honestly don't see how that's possible. The additions don't come anywhere close to what they are going to lose. And now they have to split the pot 12 ways instead of 10.

I posted on this the other day. I'll try and find it. But, they will be the lowest, but still not bad. It was like 52, 55, 56, 110, 116 - B12, PAC, ACC, B1G and SEC.

Knight&Day · Apr 16, 2022

I’m too lazy to do any research, but I thought it was incredibly stupid that the Big 12 picked Houston over a dozen or so other teams. You have some pretty decent choices too IMO.

Army, Air Force, App St., Boise St., Fresno St., Hawaii, LA Lafayette, Liberty, Memphis, Nevada, N. Illinois, San Diego St., UNLV, etc.

And those idiots pick another TX school. I mean, seriously. Wtf, brah.

WhosYourDawggy · Apr 16, 2022

Deep Creek said:
I'm with that rusty cow on this you ya old hairy dawg. I just don't see the attractiveness of the four additions being enough to make up for the loss of OU and Texas. Yeah, maybe Cincy will bring some Ohio/Northern Kentucky eyeballs and UCF some Florida eyeballs (they are the third best draw out of Florida), but neither of those are going to draw the national casual CFB eyeballs from Montana or Connecticut like Texas and Oklahoma do.

BYU will draw the LDS eyeballs from all over the globe so that will help offset it a little. Houston brings zero new eyeballs. The conference was already Texas heavy with Tech, Baylor and TCU.

Hope you are right and the rusty cow is wrong for the sake of the minor sports at the remaining 8. But I'm afraid they have HUGE budget cuts coming across the board.

Here's the post I made that has that info:

Big 12 announces Bob Bowlsby will step down as commissioner later this year

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/tcu-horned-frogs/2022/04/05/big-12-announces-bob-bowlsby-will-be-step-down-as-commissioner-later-this-year/?msclkid=f248ea7bb51f11ec9e44cbd5d09e170d This might open the door for OU and texas to get out sooner.

hooplanation.com

WhosYourDawggy · Apr 16, 2022

Thiefery said:
lol man i cannot see them grabbing that much per team.. they don't even make that now WITH UT and ou in the conference

Here you go. Pretty good sources, and the articles were well researched. Not some undergrad just making up numbers.

Big 12 announces Bob Bowlsby will step down as commissioner later this year

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/tcu-horned-frogs/2022/04/05/big-12-announces-bob-bowlsby-will-be-step-down-as-commissioner-later-this-year/?msclkid=f248ea7bb51f11ec9e44cbd5d09e170d This might open the door for OU and texas to get out sooner.

hooplanation.com

duckboy33 · Apr 16, 2022

WhosYourDawggy said:
I posted on this the other day. I'll try and find it. But, they will be the lowest, but still not bad. It was like 52, 55, 56, 110, 116 - B12, PAC, ACC, B1G and SEC.

Yeah, I saw that posted by you the other day and I’ve seen it on other message boards. I’m sure they know more than me but it seems hard to believe

WhosYourDawggy · Apr 16, 2022

duckboy33 said:
Yeah, I saw that posted by you the other day and I’ve seen it on other message boards. I’m sure they know more than me but it seems hard to believe

I would have thought so, as well. A couple thoughts:

- They probably did a pretty good job with their additions.
- BYU will draw really well for all games they are in ... the LDS connection.
- UCF has a huge alumni base
- Houston may not bring new eyeballs, but replaces some lost from UT
- Cincy making the CFP will have to help with some interest ... Baylor v. Cincy is more exciting today than it would have been a few years ago.

Keep in mind they are still last, and had OU and TX stayed, they would have been a solid middle between the lowly ACC and PAC, and the highly B1G and SEC. So they are making way less than with OU and UT, just not way less than I think many of us thought.

duckboy33 · Apr 16, 2022

WhosYourDawggy said:
I would have thought so, as well. A couple thoughts:

- They probably did a pretty good job with their additions.
- BYU will draw really well for all games they are in ... the LDS connection.
- UCF has a huge alumni base
- Houston may not bring new eyeballs, but replaces some lost from UT
- Cincy making the CFP will have to help with some interest ... Baylor v. Cincy is more exciting today than it would have been a few years ago.

Keep in mind they are still last, and had OU and TX stayed, they would have been a solid middle between the lowly ACC and PAC, and the highly B1G and SEC. So they are making way less than with OU and UT, just not way less than I think many of us thought.

I get all that but right now they are much closer to the PAC and ACC than they are to the Big Ten or SEC. It’s hard to believe losing OU and UT is only going to cause a modest drop comparatively. Especially now that the pie is split up 12 ways compared to 10.

Like I said, I could be wrong. I don’t follow this stuff as closely as others do. It just seems hard to believe.

WhosYourDawggy · Apr 16, 2022

duckboy33 said:
I get all that but right now they are much closer to the PAC and ACC than they are to the Big Ten or SEC. It’s hard to believe losing OU and UT is only going to cause a modest drop comparatively. Especially now that the pie is split up 12 ways compared to 10.

Like I said, I could be wrong. I don’t follow this stuff as closely as others do. It just seems hard to believe.

Good point on the 12 v. 10 pieces of pie. Yeah, I thought they would take a 50% hit. Time will tell.

They are getting to renegotiate the contract, so perhaps the contract was a little low before, and now it'll get back up to where it should have been.

Knight&Day · Apr 16, 2022

I can definitely see Utah being competitive in the B1G. Stanford too.

Not so much for teams like UCLA, USC, WSU, ASU etc.

Thiefery · Apr 16, 2022

WhosYourDawggy said:
Here you go. Pretty good sources, and the articles were well researched. Not some undergrad just making up numbers.

Big 12 announces Bob Bowlsby will step down as commissioner later this year

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/tcu-horned-frogs/2022/04/05/big-12-announces-bob-bowlsby-will-be-step-down-as-commissioner-later-this-year/?msclkid=f248ea7bb51f11ec9e44cbd5d09e170d This might open the door for OU and texas to get out sooner.

hooplanation.com

i still don't understand how they project that when ESPN said they weren't even going to entertain early talks just a year ago. Like what makes them project that the new deal will pay them more now that UT and ou are gone? UH/Cincy/UCF/BYU that much of an addition? 12 schools are now going to make more than when it was just 10?

I don't know, man.. guess I gotta see what the new contract is for whenever they begin negotiating.. (which again, is probably THE biggest reason Bowlsby was canned)

WhosYourDawggy · Apr 16, 2022

Thiefery said:
i still don't understand how they project that when ESPN said they weren't even going to entertain early talks just a year ago. Like what makes them project that the new deal will pay them more now that UT and ou are gone? UH/Cincy/UCF/BYU that much of an addition? 12 schools are now going to make more than when it was just 10?

I don't know, man.. guess I gotta see what the new contract is for whenever they begin negotiating.. (which again, is probably THE biggest reason Bowlsby was canned)

First, all the contracts being renewed are for a way higher amounts .... the SEC was going way up, even before OU and TX came in. Even the PAC sees their money going up from the last contract. It's the nature of the situation ... even without OU and TX, whatever football they play, it's worth more today.

Then, the 4 teams the added appear to be well distributed, good markets (UH to take up some of losing TX ... not a lot, but some; BYU brings in the LDS market which is probably pretty large and predictable; UCF is in Florida ... more and more fans, and a huge fanbase even if not one that is fully engaged; then Cincy ... just played in the CFP. That's all I got, LOL.

Thiefery · Apr 17, 2022

WhosYourDawggy said:
First, all the contracts being renewed are for a way higher amounts .... the SEC was going way up, even before OU and TX came in. Even the PAC sees their money going up from the last contract. It's the nature of the situation ... even without OU and TX, whatever football they play, it's worth more today.

Then, the 4 teams the added appear to be well distributed, good markets (UH to take up some of losing TX ... not a lot, but some; BYU brings in the LDS market which is probably pretty large and predictable; UCF is in Florida ... more and more fans, and a huge fanbase even if not one that is fully engaged; then Cincy ... just played in the CFP. That's all I got, LOL.

lol EVERYONE knew the SEC and BiG contracts were going to be much bigger. The day it was announced that ESPN offered more than what CBS was willing to pay (which, being honest CBS was getting a huge discount) was a sign that they were about to get PAID.

But "they" are saying that the new Big12..with 12 schools, are going to be making more money even without UT/ou? Knowing that the Big12 was getting paid for 12 schools, despite there only being 10?

WhosYourDawggy · Apr 17, 2022

Thiefery said:
lol EVERYONE knew the SEC and BiG contracts were going to be much bigger. The day it was announced that ESPN offered more than what CBS was willing to pay (which, being honest CBS was getting a huge discount) was a sign that they were about to get PAID.

But "they" are saying that the new Big12..with 12 schools, are going to be making more money even without UT/ou? Knowing that the Big12 was getting paid for 12 schools, despite there only being 10?

I think the point is that with OU and TX, the B12 would have been in the 70 million range, between the ACC/PAC and B1G/SEC. Without them, they will only be at low 50s. This is all 2026 dollars that include an expanded CFP which the B12 will still have at least one entry per year, sometimes 2. I was expecting their contract to decline greatly, but like I said, CFB in general, no matter what conference you are is more valuable today than it was 10 years ago when the last contract was negotiated.