USC and UCLA planning to leave for B10 by 2024!

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

All that happens in the SEC is Saban retires. The Saban run is unprecedent in college football. However, the SEC has shown that when Saban is not on top, typically another SEC Program is in the running. Those recruits would be at other SEC schools if not at Alabama. You will then see more variance at the top similar to how the SEC looked from 2000-2010.

In the 1990s it was mostly Florida/Tennessee driven due to both those programs have stable systems and coaches while Auburn, Alabama (with the exception of first half of 1990s), Georgia, and LSU having poor coaching, unstable systems, etc. Things change. They don't change up in 5-6 year span because in the scheme of sports, that is a short time period. It is only 5 seasons or 5 teams to prove yourself. Look at it in a long-term trend. Long-term, the B1G just hasn't been that good over a 20-30 year span

That is wishful thinking on your part. College football is absolutely nothing like the 90's, when they didn't have internet, they didn't thhave recruiting services ranking recruits, they didn't national football camps, they didn't advanced coaching and strength/conditioning coaches at the high school level.

So yes -- if CFB goes back to how it was in the 90's -- then i wholeheartedly agree -- teams like Nebraska, Tennessee, Michigan (my team), etc. could reach the top of CFB again. I, personally, don't see that ever happening, because all the things I have mentioned is big business now at the high school level. It is also why the best players end up going to a select few schools, because those best players have been going to camps, playing in 7 on 7's, following each other on social media for most of their life.

It is why a rich recruiting footprint in your home state is absolutely necessary if you want to compete on a yearly basis nationally. So I can see Florida reaching the top if they find the right coach, I could see Texas if they got it together, but Nebraska, I don't see any way possible in today's CFB. Same goes for Tennessee, as their top players seem to go elsewhere anyways. And Michigan is a pipe dream -- i think they will get thru the B1G, like last year, once in a while, but winning a title, I don't see that happening unless one of the dozens of billionaire alumni we have decides to buy us a lot of classes.

 

[Volbound1700]

That is wishful thinking on your part. College football is absolutely nothing like the 90's, when they didn't have internet, they didn't thhave recruiting services ranking recruits, they didn't national football camps, they didn't advanced coaching and strength/conditioning coaches at the high school level.

So yes -- if CFB goes back to how it was in the 90's -- then i wholeheartedly agree -- teams like Nebraska, Tennessee, Michigan (my team), etc. could reach the top of CFB again. I, personally, don't see that ever happening, because all the things I have mentioned is big business now at the high school level. It is also why the best players end up going to a select few schools, because those best players have been going to camps, playing in 7 on 7's, following each other on social media for most of their life.

It is why a rich recruiting footprint in your home state is absolutely necessary if you want to compete on a yearly basis nationally. So I can see Florida reaching the top if they find the right coach, I could see Texas if they got it together, but Nebraska, I don't see any way possible in today's CFB. Same goes for Tennessee, as their top players seem to go elsewhere anyways. And Michigan is a pipe dream -- i think they will get thru the B1G, like last year, once in a while, but winning a title, I don't see that happening unless one of the dozens of billionaire alumni we have decides to buy us a lot of classes.

I can see your point. This is where Tennessee is a little different. They can recruit Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, Florida, etc. but they have to be up and the teams in those areas have to be down.

However, I think Tennessee is at a disadvantage. Nebraska is pretty hard, I give you that one but not impossible. Michigan could do it but they will likely have to do it when Ohio State is down and they can take the players that are now going to Ohio State.

There are other teams on radar such as Penn State, etc.

However, I don't see it happening as long as Saban and to a degree, Kirby Smart and Jimbo Fisher are grabbing up all the 4 and 5 stars in the South.

 

[Deep Creek]

Temple was a lot easier to give the boot to, because they were only in the Big East for football. I can't see the B10 kicking out IU and Purdue. Or Rutgers.

I agree. As long as the resl money generators are okay with it, they all stay.

 

[Volbound1700]

That is wishful thinking on your part. College football is absolutely nothing like the 90's, when they didn't have internet, they didn't thhave recruiting services ranking recruits, they didn't national football camps, they didn't advanced coaching and strength/conditioning coaches at the high school level.

So yes -- if CFB goes back to how it was in the 90's -- then i wholeheartedly agree -- teams like Nebraska, Tennessee, Michigan (my team), etc. could reach the top of CFB again. I, personally, don't see that ever happening, because all the things I have mentioned is big business now at the high school level. It is also why the best players end up going to a select few schools, because those best players have been going to camps, playing in 7 on 7's, following each other on social media for most of their life.

It is why a rich recruiting footprint in your home state is absolutely necessary if you want to compete on a yearly basis nationally. So I can see Florida reaching the top if they find the right coach, I could see Texas if they got it together, but Nebraska, I don't see any way possible in today's CFB. Same goes for Tennessee, as their top players seem to go elsewhere anyways. And Michigan is a pipe dream -- i think they will get thru the B1G, like last year, once in a while, but winning a title, I don't see that happening unless one of the dozens of billionaire alumni we have decides to buy us a lot of classes.

BTW, this turned into a pretty damn discussion after an initial poor trolling attempt (or more likely friendly jab) from me .

 

[cwerph]

I read the entire thread. Some things about this move by the B1G - - -

- This puts the B1G in 5 of the 7 largest TV markets in the country.
- The B1G tv rights were estimated to be $1B before the move. This move will increase that to $1.5B at least.
- Apple TV, which was OUT, is now back IN the negotiations and so is Amazon Prime.
- As was pointed out earlier, the big driver in this is not the B1G teams. It is Fox Sports. Look for a split of the TV rights between them and one or both of the streaming services.
- I believe the B1G is waiting for a decision from ND. If ND joins, the B1G may also add Oregon and Washington.
- UNC, Duke and Virginia are also candidates.

 

[Volbound1700]

I read the entire thread. Some things about this move by the B1G - - -

- This puts the B1G in 5 of the 7 largest TV markets in the country.
- The B1G tv rights were estimated to be $1B before the move. This move will increase that to $1.5B at least.
- Apple TV, which was OUT, is now back IN the negotiations and so is Amazon Prime.
- As was pointed out earlier, the big driver in this is not the B1G teams. It is Fox Sports. Look for a split of the TV rights between them and one or both of the streaming services.
- I believe the B1G is waiting for a decision from ND. If ND joins, the B1G may also add Oregon and Washington.
- UNC, Duke and Virginia are also candidates.

Good points. At some point, the B1G TV Contract earnings could be so strong that the contract with the ACC teams doesn't seem so daunting to break.

Then again, I think the ACC has some time with its contract to try to get Notre Dame. If they don't do anything, expect B1G and SEC to poach ACC apart once their TV deal comes up for renewal.

 

[trojanfan12]

How many of those historical wins took place in the snow and below zero temps in the Midwest?

And you guys will fit in just fine in the B1G -- you can talk about the past with everyone else.

Im more concerned about all the travel than I am the weather. The weather is the weather and players will adjust.

I get the move from a financial perspective, but logistically, that is a lot of cross country flights.

But, from what I read, the tv revenue they will get is something like $100 million compared to $30 million in the pac. So I get it. Wish Larry Scott hadnt been the worst commissioner in history. Its like he was destroying the pac on purpose.

 

[cwerph]

Good points. At some point, the B1G TV Contract earnings could be so strong that the contract with the ACC teams doesn't seem so daunting to break.

Then again, I think the ACC has some time with its contract to try to get Notre Dame. If they don't do anything, expect B1G and SEC to poach ACC apart once their TV deal comes up for renewal.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

BTW, this turned into a pretty damn discussion after an initial poor trolling attempt (or more likely friendly jab) from me .

I'd love to be wrong in my thought process. Unfortunately, I follow recruiting pretty closely and follow college football religiously. I'd give up my first born to have UM be nationally elite. The only road I could see UM getting there is pulling a Texas A&M and buying a recruiting class or multiple classes. With very few truly elite players on a year to year basis in state -- they are fighting an uphill battle, then you throw in an administration who follows archaic rules of yesteryear and Michigan is screwed. We can't even bring players in from the transfer portal unless they are grad transfers, because UM won't accept credits from other schools for their degrees.

I'd agree -- Tennessee being located in the SEC footprint could be elite in the future if they find a way to sign Georgia, Bama and Florida kids, but the truly elite recruits from those areas are next to impossible to get from the grasp of the local schools.

 

[Volbound1700]

I'd love to be wrong in my thought process. Unfortunately, I follow recruiting pretty closely and follow college football religiously. I'd give up my first born to have UM be nationally elite. The only road I could see UM getting there is pulling a Texas A&M and buying a recruiting class or multiple classes. With very few truly elite players on a year to year basis in state -- they are fighting an uphill battle, then you throw in an administration who follows archaic rules of yesteryear and Michigan is screwed. We can't even bring players in from the transfer portal unless they are grad transfers, because UM won't accept credits from other schools for their degrees.

I'd agree -- Tennessee being located in the SEC footprint could be elite in the future if they find a way to sign Georgia, Bama and Florida kids, but the truly elite recruits from those areas are next to impossible to get from the grasp of the local schools.

We did it in the 1990s. Heck we were doing it with Butch Jones just 7-8 years ago. The problem is he couldn't develop that talent properly. Even Jeremy Pruitt had decent classes but failed to develop them.

Go back and actually watch our 2015 and 2016 seasons and consider if the ball had bounced a different way in some of those key games. Everyone on this board probably has a different perspective about Tennessee. Sometimes these teams are not as far off as you think they are in the scheme of things. Also 5-6 seasons is not that long. It seems long because it is 5-6 years but those are only teams. It takes 4 years for just a senior class to obtain maturity.

I think Tennessee's fate is going to be impacted by Saban. I think Tennessee will be fighting an uphill battle as long as Saban is at Alabama. Once he leaves, if Alabama takes a dive, I can see Tennessee start to climb back to 1990s level.

I think Michigan's fate also hinges on Ohio State. If Ohio State takes a dive, where are those players going to go? Likely to Michigan.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

Im more concerned about all the travel than I am the weather. The weather is the weather and players will adjust.

I get the move from a financial perspective, but logistically, that is a lot of cross country flights.

But, from what I read, the tv revenue they will get is something like $100 million compared to $30 million in the pac. So I get it. Wish Larry Scott hadnt been the worst commissioner in history. Its like he was destroying the pac on purpose.

I will tell you this -- the players will disagree with you wholeheartedly. If you are coming from Sunny and 80 degrees, flying across the US to Ann Arbor, Columbus, Madison, etc. in November and it is 0 degrees with a negative degree wind chill -- they will be playing an entirely different game.

Cold and Snow is going to be WAAAAAAY tougher to adjust to than playing a game after a 6 hour flight. Alot of kids on the West Coast have never even seen or dealt with the snow or cold.

 

[Kburjr]

We did it in the 1990s. Heck we were doing it with Butch Jones just 7-8 years ago. The problem is he couldn't develop that talent properly. Even Jeremy Pruitt had decent classes but failed to develop them.

Go back and actually watch our 2015 and 2016 seasons and consider if the ball had bounced a different way in some of those key games. Everyone on this board probably has a different perspective about Tennessee. Sometimes these teams are not as far off as you think they are in the scheme of things. Also 5-6 seasons is not that long. It seems long because it is 5-6 years but those are only teams. It takes 4 years for just a senior class to obtain maturity.



I think Michigan's fate also hinges on Ohio State. If Ohio State takes a dive, where are those players going to go? Likely to Michigan.

Cincinnati

 

[Deep Creek]

I don't think you will find anyone arguing that the SEC footprints is grossly more talented in terms of recruiting than anywhere else. That being said -- Bama is the one carrying the SEC. Georgia has a chance to take over that role.

But it is always 'the other schools' in the SEC who are the loudest about the SEC.

Jimbo gonna do it.

 

[Deep Creek]

I'm just enjoying a bit of smack talk against conference foes ... note the self-depreciation humor I included.

You'd make a good Miner fan!

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

We did it in the 1990s. Heck we were doing it with Butch Jones just 7-8 years ago. The problem is he couldn't develop that talent properly. Even Jeremy Pruitt had decent classes but failed to develop them.

Go back and actually watch our 2015 and 2016 seasons and consider if the ball had bounced a different way in some of those key games. Everyone on this board probably has a different perspective about Tennessee. Sometimes these teams are not as far off as you think they are in the scheme of things. Also 5-6 seasons is not that long. It seems long because it is 5-6 years but those are only teams. It takes 4 years for just a senior class to obtain maturity.

I think Tennessee's fate is going to be impacted by Saban. I think Tennessee will be fighting an uphill battle as long as Saban is at Alabama. Once he leaves, if Alabama takes a dive, I can see Tennessee start to climb back to 1990s level.

I think Michigan's fate also hinges on Ohio State. If Ohio State takes a dive, where are those players going to go? Likely to Michigan.

Nah -- what Butch was doing is signing huge classes, which you can't do anymore. Michigan would do that from time to time too. They put an end to that a few years ago.

I think Tennessee can pull in top 25, even some top 15 type classes. but there is an enormous difference between top 15-25 and top 5 classes on a regular basis. To put it in perspective -- UM had the #9 class in the country two years ago i think -- OSU had the #3 recruiting class. The best recruit that UM signed that year would have been the 11th best recruit in Ohio State class. 11th!!!!! And we had a top 10 class.

There is an ENORMOUS talent gap between the top 5 recruiting teams and everyone else.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

Jimbo gonna do it.

Jimbo isn't going to do it -- the boosters may though.

 

[OlyDuck]

totally posted in the wrong thread earlier

calling my shot.

Oregon, Washington and Stanford to the Big 10 along with Notre Dame.

West
Illinois
Iowa
Minnesota
Nebraska
Oregon
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Washington
Wisconsin

East
Indiana
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Penn State
Purdue
Rutgers

could also see a 5 team pods
West
West Coast: Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Wash
West Central: Illinois, Iowa, Minn, Neb, Wisc
East Northern : Maryland, Mich, Mich State, Penn Sate, Rutgers
East Great Lakes : Indiana, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Purdue
I dont know about a game break down tho.
4-3-1-1?

 

[duckboy33]

could also see a 5 team pods
West
West Coast: Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Wash
West Central: Illinois, Iowa, Minn, Neb, Wisc
East Northern : Maryland, Mich, Mich State, Penn Sate, Rutgers
East Great Lakes : Indiana, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Purdue
I dont know about a game break down tho.
4-3-1-1?

My guess is 18. Big Ten adds ND and UO.

Uses a 3-7-7 model.

 

[Goldbug]

Im more concerned about all the travel than I am the weather. The weather is the weather and players will adjust.

I get the move from a financial perspective, but logistically, that is a lot of cross country flights.

But, from what I read, the tv revenue they will get is something like $100 million compared to $30 million in the pac. So I get it. Wish Larry Scott hadnt been the worst commissioner in history. Its like he was destroying the pac on purpose.

The other issue that remains to be seen is if USC/UCLA will start getting some resistance from recruits because of all that travel. It plays hell with a person's academics on top of the added stress in sports. Playing on the West Coast and kicking ass is one thing. But playing football in cold weather after long flights for multiple games is something else. And the travel issue will obviously affect all the sports. This move to the B1G is NOT what Riley was expecting for sure. He had everything teed up perfectly and then they suddenly made some huge changes. The effect, if any, on recruiting will be key.

 

[Hu War Yu]

Oregon and UW are fucked if ND doesn't join the B1G. Makes things interesting if ND doesn't join.

This doesn't make any sense; the only conference ND could join right now would be the ACC. Not sure why or how this would hold up any more Big expansion