Wait, Undefeated TCU is a 7 1/2 point dog to 6-3 Texas, did I see that right

outofyourmind

outofyourmind

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Just doing my Pickems and this game just didn't seem right to me.
Are there injuries I don't know about or something.

Is anyone taking Texas in their picks ??
 
outofyourmind said:
Just doing my Pickems and this game just didn't seem right to me.
Are there injuries I don't know about or something.

Is anyone taking Texas in their picks ??
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I have this game marked as one I want to watch. Should be an exciting shootout. Picked TCU to cover though
 
I think TCU covers but I don't think it's a stretch for Texas to be favored. It's at home and despite the records (and I'd argue UT is much better than their 6-3), Texas ranks ahead of TCU in efficiency metrics like FPI and SP+. Texas has played a much tougher schedule than TCU (1st in Sports-Ref's SOS and 16th in FPI's SOS).

That being said... while I do think Texas has a better defense, their pass defense hasn't been great. They've allowed all of their opponents except for OU to complete at least 60% of their passes, and OU was playing without Gabriel. They're going up against one of the best passing attacks in the country. Texas has been much better at defending the run, only two teams have gotten 4+ YPC against them (KSU at 4.0 and Bama at 6.7... and about half of Bama's rushing yards came on one play). TCU has a much lower completion percentage allowed, but they're giving up more yards per pass attempt. Their run defense has been alright, but it did struggle with TTU/KSU/Kansas and now they're going up against one of the best RBs in the country.

I'll say TCU 41-37.
 
outofyourmind said:
Just doing my Pickems and this game just didn't seem right to me.
Are there injuries I don't know about or something.

Is anyone taking Texas in their picks ??
Click to expand...
People are reading too much into TCU’s wins over the two Oklahoma and two Kansas teams. Those wins don’t look too good now. Now they have to play in the Lone Star state.

TCU loses this week AND next week on the Brazos against the Bible Aggies. Bet fat stacks on both of those.
 
Deep Creek said:
People are reading too much into TCU’s wins over the two Oklahoma and two Kansas teams. Those wins don’t look too good now. Now they have to play in the Lone Star state.

TCU loses this week AND next week on the Brazos against the Bible Aggies. Bet fat stacks on both of those.
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TCU hasn't really faced any quality defenses either. KSU is the only defense that they've faced that's in the top 50 in scoring defense (and they're 18th).
 
If it's a close game then that has got to favor TCU. They've gotten through already a couple times and Texas hasn't shown to have that mentality
 
I stay away from betting any kind of "funny line" games. Vegas is too good on these kinds of games.
 
douggie said:
I stay away from betting any kind of "funny line" games. Vegas is too good on these kinds of games.
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Every now and then you get weird ones, especially with big name programs, where the fans can drive some of the betting and Vegas takes advantage of that. I think this could be one of those cases. Like I said, woildnt be shocked if Texas pulls it off. But a TD favorite seems kinda high to me
 
Texas, year after year, is probably a better, or should be, better team than their record. This is why they are the butt of so many jokes.

Texas also has a way of playing great against tough opponents and overlooking the more mediocre opponents on their schedule (see Texas Tech or Iowa State matchup this year or Kansas last year).

Since TCU is ranked in top 4, this seems like a game Texas will come out for and possibly win. However, I have no confidence they finish better than 8-4.
 
I have Texas favored to win but 7.5 is a tough call.
Reasons to pick Texas:
- At home with 100k+ stadium vs #4 team. I think that's 6-7 points by itself.
- Two of Texas loses was from Ewers out and an injuried backup.
- Sark is great at scheming players open. Some of Texas opponents have had success taking the easy reads away and forcing Ewers to go through his reads (something he's still learning to do) but I'm not sure if TCU is that defense.
- Athletically Texas defense could match up with TCU
 
Volbound1700 said:
Texas, year after year, is probably a better, or should be, better team than their record. This is why they are the butt of so many jokes.

Texas also has a way of playing great against tough opponents and overlooking the more mediocre opponents on their schedule (see Texas Tech or Iowa State matchup this year or Kansas last year).

Since TCU is ranked in top 4, this seems like a game Texas will come out for and possibly win. However, I have no confidence they finish better than 8-4.
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Hey, remember that time you said you weren’t an SEC homer and that playing Middle Tennessee and Memphis and Vandy was tantamount to playing TCU Baylor and OKST.
I do.
 
Texas’ lines have seemed so bloated but somehow they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
 
i'm picking Texas to win but if I were putting my money on it.. just take Texas -4 in the first half.. They always cover.. I'll be sweating the 2nd half when TCU scores it's most points compared to Texas not scoring in the 2nd half
 
Big XII officiating has become as bad as the Pac 10. Last week TCU got the benefit of some calls against Texas Tech that were laughable when the game was still in doubt. So, (a) expect the conference to protect its only candidate for the Playoff and (b) expect one of the schools that is leaving the conference to get royally fucked at some critical times. I'd stick with TCU in this one until I see the conference clean up the officiating and Texas announces it's staying in the Big XII.
 
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