Week 10 Playoff Projections

[Codaxx]

Take the teams with the 2 best conference records. The tiebreaker eliminates the team with the weaker schedule.

If Indiana beats osu, they deserve to go to the ccg. If they lose, then they don't.

Take Georgia. They could have 2 losses in the SEC and be the best team. They are playing everyone. Teams like Texas, T A&M, Mizzu, and Ole Miss play way weaker schedules. It will likely work itself out, but lot of potential for weak teams to get in.

It’s crazy that PSU, Indiana, and Oregon only play 1 conference contender. They all play OSU, but not each other. That is just a terrible schedule to try and rank those teams.

 

[stakesarehigh]

Take Georgia. They could have 2 losses in the SEC and be the best team. They are playing everyone. Teams like Texas, T A&M, Mizzu, and Ole Miss play way weaker schedules. It will likely work itself out, but lot of potential for weak teams to get in.

It’s crazy that PSU, Indiana, and Oregon only play 1 conference contender. They all play OSU, but not each other. That is just a terrible schedule to try and rank those teams.

But again, not sure how divisions help your situation. In the BIG the issue was long that the West was much worse. We wouldve had OSU 4 times 16, 21, 22, and 23 and Michigan once in 2018 over the West rep in the 11 years it was East vs West.

4 of the 5 years wouldve been a UM and OSU rematch and the other year it was PSU and OSU.

Instead we got Northwestern, Purdue and Iowa

They all lost, usually badly.

 

[Codaxx]

But again, not sure how divisions help your situation. In the BIG the issue was long that the West was much worse. We wouldve had OSU 4 times 16, 21, 22, and 23 and PSU once 2018 over the West rep in the 11 years it was East vs West.

Just even out scheduling a bit. In the new format, it isn’t bad being the 2nd team in the strong division. Being a 5 seed is pretty good. That is something I am going to be watching. Do we see the conference champion losers penalized for the extra game? (Will they get 8-9 seeds or 5-6?)

 

[osubuckeye89]

The ACC is so bad. SMU will likely be playing Miami for a spot in the playoffs.

Miami should have at least 1 loss too, the fucking ACC refs have bailed them out like crazy

 

[stakesarehigh]

Just even out scheduling a bit. In the new format, it isn’t bad being the 2nd team in the strong division. Being a 5 seed is pretty good. That is something I am going to be watching. Do we see the conference champion losers penalized for the extra game? (Will they get 8-9 seeds or 5-6?)

How do you know what evening out the schedule is

We didnt know Indiana was going to be this good at all. Or SMU in the ACC

 

[Codaxx]

How do you know what evening out the schedule is

We didnt know Indiana was going to be this good at all. Or SMU in the ACC

16 teams, 2 divisions..
each division schedule inherently has massive overlap.
I think we eventually get even bigger conferences and perhaps a conference playoff at some point

 

[osubuckeye89]

Can’t wait for the seeding manipulation to prevent SEC teams from having to play on the road in cold weather environments

 

[ericd7633]

Can’t wait for the seeding manipulation to prevent SEC teams from having to play on the road in cold weather environments

Don't really think it would be manipulation. One of OSU/Oregon is almost assuredly going to be the #5 seed(#6 at worst). But after that it's wide open. Would PSU/IU deserve a home game with no ranked wins(assuming OSU beats IU). ND, if they won out, could probably make a claim to being a #7 or #8 seed, which I think would be about right.

Right now, it's probably gonna shake out like this, assuming no major upsets in the CCG.

#5 seed - B1G CG loser
#6 seed - SECCG loser
#7-#11 seeds - some combination of Tennessee, ND, PSU, IU, Bama/LSU winner. Maybe A&M, maybe Ole Miss if they get upsets to close out the year. PSU and IU wouldn't have great resumes.

 

[Deep Creek]

Colorado at Texas Tech - The opportunity presented itself to Coach Prime and the Buffs with ISU and KSU losing last week. Weird things happen in Lubbock and this Red Raiders team can score.

Yep and the schedule definitely favors the Primers. Not only who they play, but when and where they played them. Baylor, UCF, K-State, Zona, Cincy, Tech, Utah, Kansas, Okie Lite. Avoided BYU, ISU and the trip to West Virginia would have been difficult. They got Baylor early. Bears look better now. They get Utah late. Utes look bad now.

Not always. Tech's offense can turn completely to crap at times. Their OC goes brain dead at times. Baylor beat Tech in Lubbock three weeks ago by 24!

And then there's Tech's defense. Baylor scored 59 on them in Lubbock that day. They did hold ISU to 22. But they probably had as much to do with ISU's offense as Tech's defense.

Unless they can beat a ranked team in the CCG, they won't have a win over a ranked team.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

Take Georgia. They could have 2 losses in the SEC and be the best team. They are playing everyone. Teams like Texas, T A&M, Mizzu, and Ole Miss play way weaker schedules. It will likely work itself out, but lot of potential for weak teams to get in.

It’s crazy that PSU, Indiana, and Oregon only play 1 conference contender. They all play OSU, but not each other. That is just a terrible schedule to try and rank those teams.

If Georgia has two losses, they can only blame themselves.

 

[Deep Creek]

Just even out scheduling a bit. In the new format, it isn’t bad being the 2nd team in the strong division. Being a 5 seed is pretty good. That is something I am going to be watching. Do we see the conference champion losers penalized for the extra game? (Will they get 8-9 seeds or 5-6?)

I definitely think this can happen. Especially when one of their conference mates doesn't have to play the CCG and ends up higher ranked then the CCG loser. Hope not but.........

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

I definitely think this can happen. Especially when one of their conference mates doesn't have to play the CCG and ends up higher ranked then the CCG loser. Hope not but.........

It's an extra data point. You have to consider it.

At the same time, all losses are not equal. A close loss has less impact than getting blown out.

 

[Deep Creek]

It's an extra data point. You have to consider it.

At the same time, all losses are not equal. A close loss has less impact than getting blown out.

I didn't say it will happen. I said it "can" happen.

 

[osubuckeye89]

Don't really think it would be manipulation. One of OSU/Oregon is almost assuredly going to be the #5 seed(#6 at worst). But after that it's wide open. Would PSU/IU deserve a home game with no ranked wins(assuming OSU beats IU). ND, if they won out, could probably make a claim to being a #7 or #8 seed, which I think would be about right.

Right now, it's probably gonna shake out like this, assuming no major upsets in the CCG.

#5 seed - B1G CG loser
#6 seed - SECCG loser
#7-#11 seeds - some combination of Tennessee, ND, PSU, IU, Bama/LSU winner. Maybe A&M, maybe Ole Miss if they get upsets to close out the year. PSU and IU wouldn't have great resumes.

So


Do losses just not matter anymore?

Bama and LSU (even though they are already trying to memory hole USC as a “quality loss” lol) both have by far a worse than Penn State would. So does Texas A&M

 

[78Cyclones]

If Georgia has two losses, they can only blame themselves.

And their tough schedule. Already played @ Alabama and @ Texas and have @ Ole Miss and Tennessee coming up. Not a Georgia fan at all, but that is a tough slate right there even if the other 8 games are fluff city.

 

[osubuckeye89]

And their tough schedule. Already played @ Alabama and @ Texas and have @ Ole Miss and Tennessee coming up. Not a Georgia fan at all, but that is a tough slate right there even if the other 8 games are fluff city.

Georgia has a lot more problems than their schedule.

 

[osubuckeye89]

It cracks me up when people pretend teams like Florida are only mediocre because of their SEC SCHEDULE! Florida would still be a mediocre team if they were in the ACC or Big 12 too.

 

[Boise4Life]

How do you know what evening out the schedule is

We didnt know Indiana was going to be this good at all. Or SMU in the ACC

True although in SMU’s case they were supposed to be good. They returned a lot from an already solid 2023 team and if I remember correctly started just barely outside the top 25.

 

[ericd7633]

So


Do losses just not matter anymore?

Bama and LSU (even though they are already trying to memory hole USC as a “quality loss” lol) both have by far a worse than Penn State would. So does Texas A&M

I don't really care what they say is more important, as long as it's consistent. I would tend to lean towards a team with better wins, even if they have an extra loss, over a team with no good wins and a good loss. Which is appears IU and PSU will likely have.

 

[Deep Creek]

It cracks me up when people pretend teams like Florida are only mediocre because of their SEC SCHEDULE! Florida would still be a mediocre team if they were in the ACC or Big 12 too.

I was going to dispute this with you but after looking at things, you are probably 50% correct. Using Miami, they beat Florida as bad or worse than many of their ACC brethren. Nothing to go on regarding the Big 12 one way or the other.