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UTjr shook up the CFB world by committing $8 million to a SoCal QB. Was that a wise investment? We've discussed it here, but The Athletic did a deep dive as to where the dollars would be best spent. I won't go into all the details, but it isn't QBs. Not even close. Hint ... it's the secondary.
Staples: Which 5-stars should collectives be spending on? You might be surprised
The number is the talk of college football. A name, image and likeness deal from one of these new school-adjacent collectives worth up to $8 million for a five-star recruit who won’t set foot on a college campus until next year? When Stewart Mandel’s story hit our site March 11, everyone had a guess as to the identity of the player. And 100 percent of those guesses pegged the player’s position as quarterback.
This got me thinking about busts, because that’s a lot of money to gamble on someone who isn’t a sure thing. We know a healthy percentage of five-star quarterbacks don’t pan out. We talk a lot of those guys, and we still remember them even if their college careers don’t live up to the hype. You probably haven’t thought about Mitch Mustain or Gunner Kiel or Bobby Reid much lately, but if you’re a college football fan, you know who those QBs are. And even if that last name doesn’t look entirely familiar, you’ve absolutely heard a Mike Gundy rant inspired by a column written about Reid.
...
To create a score, I tried to combine contribution with raw talent. Each player received one point for each year as a starter, two points for each year as an All-Conference selection (not honorable mention) and five points for each year as an All-America selection (not honorable mention). Each player received 10 points for being a first-round NFL draft pick, five points for being selected in rounds two through four or three points for being selected in rounds five through seven. The All-America and first-round values are so high because those also contribute to NIL demand for the player. I added one more category that is almost purely for NIL purposes; players received 10 points for each year they were a Heisman finalist. In other words, if you got invited to New York, you got 10 points.
• 2 points for each season named to an all-conference team
• 5 points for each season named to an All-America team
• 10 points for each season as a Heisman Trophy finalist
• 3 points for being drafted in rounds 5-7
• 5 points for being drafted in rounds 2-4
• 10 points for being drafted in the first round
....
Top scorers among 5-stars: 2003-17
...
Safeties — Median: 14; Average: 11.9
Cornerbacks — Median: 9; Average: 10.7
Tight ends — Median: 9; Average: 7.2
Offensive line — Median: 8; Average: 9.2
Defensive ends — Median: 8; Average: 8.3
Quarterbacks — Median: 7; Average: 9.3
Wide receivers — Median: 7; Average: 8.3
Defensive tackles — Median: 6.5; Average: 9
Running backs — Median: 5; Average: 8.8
Linebackers — Median: 5; Average: 8.1
...
Only one particular group of players jumped off the page in a good way: the safeties. Though the sample size was smaller (29 versus more than 60 for several position groups), the safeties posted far and away the highest median (14) and average (11.9) scores. More than half the group scored in double digits, and eight wound up getting drafted in the first round. The top five scorers (Tennessee’s Eric Berry, Washington’s Shaq Thompson, Michigan’s Jabrill Peppers, Florida State’s Derwin James and LSU’s Jamal Adams) were great in college specifically because of their versatility. Each made his defensive coordinator’s job much easier by providing a host of options. Thompson, who actually played linebacker at Washington and also plays linebacker in the NFL, also averaged 7.5 yards a carry as a tailback for the Huskies in 2014.
...
The cornerbacks were the second-best group of the bunch with a median score of nine and an average of 10.7. And even though most of the players in the group also played receiver in high school, most of them starred at corner, safety or some hybrid nickel position in college. The notable exception was Theodore Ginn Jr., the player Rivals.com ranked as the No. 1 corner and second-best overall player in the class of 2004. Ted Ginn Jr. certainly became a star, but it was as a Buckeyes receiver. Much of this group made an immediate impact in college. Vernon Hargreaves (29 points) may have committed the single dumbest penalty in Super Bowl history last month, but he erased one side of the field at Florida. Meanwhile, 27-point scorers Patrick Peterson (LSU) and Jalen Ramsey (Florida State) each have taken turns in the NFL as the best corner on the planet. Cornerback also was the only position group in which every player scored at least one point. The others were littered with players who either never made it to campus, transferred because of a lack of playing time or got dismissed without ever contributing. All 47 of the corners started for at least one season at the school where they signed.
That’s remarkable, and it further reinforces the notion that collectives should work extra hard to land deals for highly rated DBs who are considering the programs that are most certainly not officially attached to those collectives. (Sprains an eyelid winking.)
As the CEO of a collective located near an elite program told me recently, the (mostly wealthy) people funding these organizations did not get rich by spending foolishly. Some deals may seem like stretches, but as the market stabilizes, the people funding collectives and the people running them will be rewarding the players who offer the best ROI. As noted above, that ROI can come in the form of money, wins or both. Preferably, it’s both.
So if collectives want to hedge the bets they’re inevitably going to place on QBs, the secondary is the place to start.
Staples: Which 5-stars should collectives be spending on? You might be surprised
The number is the talk of college football. A name, image and likeness deal from one of these new school-adjacent collectives worth up to $8 million for a five-star recruit who won’t set foot on a college campus until next year? When Stewart Mandel’s story hit our site March 11, everyone had a guess as to the identity of the player. And 100 percent of those guesses pegged the player’s position as quarterback.
This got me thinking about busts, because that’s a lot of money to gamble on someone who isn’t a sure thing. We know a healthy percentage of five-star quarterbacks don’t pan out. We talk a lot of those guys, and we still remember them even if their college careers don’t live up to the hype. You probably haven’t thought about Mitch Mustain or Gunner Kiel or Bobby Reid much lately, but if you’re a college football fan, you know who those QBs are. And even if that last name doesn’t look entirely familiar, you’ve absolutely heard a Mike Gundy rant inspired by a column written about Reid.
...
To create a score, I tried to combine contribution with raw talent. Each player received one point for each year as a starter, two points for each year as an All-Conference selection (not honorable mention) and five points for each year as an All-America selection (not honorable mention). Each player received 10 points for being a first-round NFL draft pick, five points for being selected in rounds two through four or three points for being selected in rounds five through seven. The All-America and first-round values are so high because those also contribute to NIL demand for the player. I added one more category that is almost purely for NIL purposes; players received 10 points for each year they were a Heisman finalist. In other words, if you got invited to New York, you got 10 points.
Scoring System
• 1 point for each season as an FBS starter• 2 points for each season named to an all-conference team
• 5 points for each season named to an All-America team
• 10 points for each season as a Heisman Trophy finalist
• 3 points for being drafted in rounds 5-7
• 5 points for being drafted in rounds 2-4
• 10 points for being drafted in the first round
....
Top scorers among 5-stars: 2003-17
| CLASS | PLAYER | SCHOOL | FBS STARTER | ALL-AMERICA | ALL-CONFERENCE | NFL DRAFT | HEISMAN FINALIST | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | QB Tim Tebow | Florida | 3 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 30 | 59 |
| 2005 | RB Darren McFadden | Arkansas | 3 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 49 |
| 2003 | RB Reggie Bush | USC | 3 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 47 |
| 2015 | DT Christian Wilkins | Clemson | 4 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 35 |
| 2016 | DT Ed Oliver | Houston | 3 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 34 |
| 2004 | RB Adrian Peterson | Oklahoma | 3 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 34 |
| 2012 | QB Jameis Winston | Florida State | 2 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 31 |
| 2017 | QB Tua Tagovailoa | Alabama | 2 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 31 |
| 2009 | RB Trent Richardson | Alabama | 2 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 31 |
| 2004 | CB Ted Ginn Jr. | Ohio State | 3 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 30 |
...
Position breakdown
All players — Median: 7; Average: 9Safeties — Median: 14; Average: 11.9
Cornerbacks — Median: 9; Average: 10.7
Tight ends — Median: 9; Average: 7.2
Offensive line — Median: 8; Average: 9.2
Defensive ends — Median: 8; Average: 8.3
Quarterbacks — Median: 7; Average: 9.3
Wide receivers — Median: 7; Average: 8.3
Defensive tackles — Median: 6.5; Average: 9
Running backs — Median: 5; Average: 8.8
Linebackers — Median: 5; Average: 8.1
...
Only one particular group of players jumped off the page in a good way: the safeties. Though the sample size was smaller (29 versus more than 60 for several position groups), the safeties posted far and away the highest median (14) and average (11.9) scores. More than half the group scored in double digits, and eight wound up getting drafted in the first round. The top five scorers (Tennessee’s Eric Berry, Washington’s Shaq Thompson, Michigan’s Jabrill Peppers, Florida State’s Derwin James and LSU’s Jamal Adams) were great in college specifically because of their versatility. Each made his defensive coordinator’s job much easier by providing a host of options. Thompson, who actually played linebacker at Washington and also plays linebacker in the NFL, also averaged 7.5 yards a carry as a tailback for the Huskies in 2014.
...
The cornerbacks were the second-best group of the bunch with a median score of nine and an average of 10.7. And even though most of the players in the group also played receiver in high school, most of them starred at corner, safety or some hybrid nickel position in college. The notable exception was Theodore Ginn Jr., the player Rivals.com ranked as the No. 1 corner and second-best overall player in the class of 2004. Ted Ginn Jr. certainly became a star, but it was as a Buckeyes receiver. Much of this group made an immediate impact in college. Vernon Hargreaves (29 points) may have committed the single dumbest penalty in Super Bowl history last month, but he erased one side of the field at Florida. Meanwhile, 27-point scorers Patrick Peterson (LSU) and Jalen Ramsey (Florida State) each have taken turns in the NFL as the best corner on the planet. Cornerback also was the only position group in which every player scored at least one point. The others were littered with players who either never made it to campus, transferred because of a lack of playing time or got dismissed without ever contributing. All 47 of the corners started for at least one season at the school where they signed.
That’s remarkable, and it further reinforces the notion that collectives should work extra hard to land deals for highly rated DBs who are considering the programs that are most certainly not officially attached to those collectives. (Sprains an eyelid winking.)
As the CEO of a collective located near an elite program told me recently, the (mostly wealthy) people funding these organizations did not get rich by spending foolishly. Some deals may seem like stretches, but as the market stabilizes, the people funding collectives and the people running them will be rewarding the players who offer the best ROI. As noted above, that ROI can come in the form of money, wins or both. Preferably, it’s both.
So if collectives want to hedge the bets they’re inevitably going to place on QBs, the secondary is the place to start.
