USC and UCLA planning to leave for B10 by 2024!

Wild Turkey said:
I actually think ND will agree to a lower number but not much less. You hit the nail on the head with two points:

1. ND floated the number - To me that says a lot and that there is an internal discussion going on that change is on the horizon and ND wants a confirmed number to do a full analysis. Surprised the number was made public but that is probably a sign things are moving quicker than we believed.

2. ND values their independence and would prefer not to be in a conference unless they don't have a choice but we may be seeing that they feel the pressure of possibly not having a choice.

ND is EVERYONE's fly in the ointment right now and the lynchpin of what happens next. Would be crazy if they are the ones that decide to challenge the ACC agreement first. This is the story to follow.
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Agree with your points. Regarding #1, it might have been leaked.

I am still a firm believer that the SEC didn't want to go public about OU and Texas until 2023 or 2024.
 
Volbound1700 said:
Notre Dame seems to be your fly in the ointment when we do analysis. Notre Dame seems very willing to leave money on the table to stay Independent. It does not make sense from a Financial perspective but it is a lesson that I learned from law school. There was a famous Common Law case (@WhosYourDawggy might remember the name) about a man killing a fox on another person's land. The owner of the land claimed the fox was his and the two went back and forth going all of the way to the Higher Courts and spending tons of $$$ over this stupid fox. It was all related to just a petty hatred for each other.

$$$$ drives most people but not everyone. Notre Dame asks for $ 75 Million. If NBC agrees, I think Notre Dame stays independent.
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I don't recall the case, but the googler says its

en.wikipedia.org

Pierson v. Post - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
outofyourmind said:
Yes
But I could see Oklahoma pulling back on the OOC some
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You'll have to or you won't have the depth to finish a season.

You guys give me a hard time about Auburn's loss to OU in the Sugar Bowl but it's no joke when your QB goes out on the first drive and your only running back is only 75% healthy. We've had recent seasons where we lost both starting tackles for part of the year.

It is going to blow your mind how brutal it is.
 
outofyourmind said:
Yes
But I could see Oklahoma pulling back on the OOC some
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The only think I could see is just having one badass OOC per year. We have some seasons where we play tSOU and OU (that will take care of itself), then FSU and Clemson, and some crazy shit like that. I can see that going away if we go to a 9 game IC.
 
Volbound1700 said:
Agree with your points. Regarding #1, it might have been leaked.

I am still a firm believer that the SEC didn't want to go public about OU and Texas until 2023 or 2024.
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The SEC didn't want to go public period or risk a tampering lawsuit. It was always Texas and OU's decision to make it public and it doesn't surprise me it was aTm that pretty much broke it because no one can keep their mouth shut.

I think the goal was to get through SEC media days last year and then break it but they didn't make it. The result was no one remembers what anyone else said it was all about OU and TX. For the record, I doubt many in the PAC have a clue what anyone said at their media days except USC and UCLA.
 
I don't think it is always about scheduling hard teams or not, I think it is a lot about who is available to schedule and also trying to get more home games.

Now teams like Kentucky seem to load up their schedule with cupcakes to make bowl games. Heck, Tennessee has dropped out of a couple of series right now to make their schedule easier (although we do a terrible job of it. We drop BYU and UNC but keep Oregon and Oklahoma, go figure).
 
Volbound1700 said:
That is the one, thank you. Our professor made a comment to the effect that not everyone makes the BEST Financial decisions in a litigation matter.
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I spent $1.3 million in attorney fees in an IP case we won. We would have settled at any time during the 4 years but the other side actually thought they could win their counter-claims. They actually had the counter-claims stricken due to discovery abuse. We won after a 2-week trial that was running me $2500 per hour. We won $600K in attorney fees which was the largest award of attorney fees in the NC Business Court at that time. I've never collected a dime. Shit happens, even when you are right.
 
outofyourmind said:
Are you under some impression that I don't know what depth is/means.

You keep saying it like Oklahoma fans have no comprehension of it.

Stop It
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Don't say I didn't warn you when you are starting a freshman at running back with a WR converted that week in practice to back him up.
 
Wild Turkey said:
Don't say I didn't warn you when you are starting a freshman at running back with a WR converted that week in practice to back him up.
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You say that like I have never ever seen it before.
I'm all too familiar with it.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
I spent $1.3 million in attorney fees in an IP case we won. We would have settled at any time during the 4 years but the other side actually thought they could win their counter-claims. They actually had the counter-claims stricken due to discovery abuse. We won after a 2-week trial that was running me $2500 per hour. We won $600K in attorney fees which was the largest award of attorney fees in the NC Business Court at that time. I've never collected a dime. Shit happens, even when you are right.
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Don't get me started on collecting.

I was involved in a case that went to the Alabama Supreme Court and that guy had to put a bond up for what he owed me and I collected on the bond because he lost the case and defaulted on the bond so I was big fan of that situation.
 
Wild Turkey said:
The 75 million might be a problem though the more I think about it because when are saying the B1G and SEC are worth 100 million a school for all sports. The problem is that NBC only owns ND's home games and it won't include any other sports. We go on and on about how the other sports aren't worth anything but that simply is not true because they provide the network with thousands of hours of fresh live programming that they need to fill dead space. For example, NBC couldn't televise an ND basketball game if they wanted to.

At least when a network does a deal with the SEC they get the majority of games from teams like Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, and aTm if it is at home or away. In other words, they have the potential to get Alabama 10 games a year.

So NBC would be committing to pay ND 12.5 million for their home games which not all of them are blockbusters. Take pre-season games played at a neutral site where teams are typically paid around 5 million each to participate and those games are almost guaranteed to get 4 million views. So that means NBC would be paying 12.5 million to air ND vs Boston College when Alabama vs USC is costing 10 million.

What NBC is trying to do is pick up another conference so they can spread out some of the production costs and make the expense side better through bulk buys and ad sells. People want to believe a school has a 100 million dollar value but that isn't the case because that value is created through synergies with other schools and leveraging combined fans as a base. They also feed this content into other mediums like websites and pick up additional revenue and it is tough to do that with one school. NBC wants to combine ND with another conference to get revenue strength and opportunities through numbers.

NBC wants this deal but are 6 home ND games worth 75 million when other networks are getting Bama, Ohio State, Texas, OU, Georgia, etc for 10 games a year plus basketball for 100 million.
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You definitely raise some good points.

I'll first start off with addressing the CBB issue. NBC has never been a major player in CBB. They've cut back on expenses(CBT is no longer a thing), NBCSN went away, so you're left with having to put games on USA Network, which they simply wouldn't do IMO. Maybe this is where Peacock could come into play, and maybe that's the thought process for them if they acquire conference rights. I can see them putting CFB games on USA Network, but not CBB games.

As for the inventory of games. ND will typically play 7 homes games. So if the 75 million number is correct, it comes out to a little under 10 million. On average, you'll probably expect to get around 4 million viewers/game. Some games you'll see a massive rating(10+ million viewers for Clem/ND in 2020) and others you'll see a lower rating(GT/ND 2021).

Also, if I was NBC, I'd make it be known that if they are paying that much, teams like Marshall, UNLV, Central Michigan etc...need to come off the schedule. Which I would be okay with. Give me 10 P5 games, Navy and one other G5 team and call it a schedule. That makes the inventory of games much more attractive. The year's ND has been in true CFP/BCSCG contention, they garner huge ratings. Even games against the likes of Ball St, Vandy and Duke have drawn huge numbers.
 
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ericd7633 said:
You definitely raise some good points.

I'll first start off with addressing the CBB issue. NBC has never been a major player in CBB. They've cut back on expenses(CBT is no longer a thing), NBCSN went away, so you're left with having to put games on USA Network, which they simply wouldn't do IMO. Maybe this is where Peacock could come into play, and maybe that's the thought process for them if they acquire conference rights. I can see them putting CFB games on USA Network, but not CBB games.

As for the inventory of games. ND will typically play 7 homes games. So if the 75 million number is correct, it comes out to a little under 10 million. On average, you'll probably expect to get around 4 million viewers/game. Some games you'll see a massive rating(10+ million viewers for Clem/ND in 2020) and others you'll see a lower rating(GT/ND 2021).

Also, if I was NBC, I'd make it be known that if they are paying that much, teams like Marshall, UNLV, Central Michigan etc...need to come off the schedule. Which I would be okay with. Give me 10 P5 games, Navy and one other G5 team and call it a schedule. That makes the inventory of games much more attractive. The year's ND has been in true CFP/BCSCG contention, they garner huge ratings. Even games against the likes of Ball St, Vandy and Duke have drawn huge numbers.
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1. ND has given the rights to their basketball and other sports to the ACC as a full participant so that is off the table. NBC can't broadcast those games period.

2. ND average a 4.8 rating per game in 2020 but in 2021 no game drew more than a 4 and the best game was vs Cincinnati at 3.8 which people watched to see you lose. Those are good ratings and why ND is the most attractive on the board but at 75 million a year NBC is paying top dollar for 7 games a year and 700K more than networks pay to air neutral site games. Last year the only game that made it into the Top 10 highest rated was ND vs FSU but it was an FSU home game so NBC didn't get it. If you were pulling 10 million plus viewers for your games then all of them would be top 10 games. To put it in perspective for you the Auburn vs Alabama game was number 2 last year and 10.4 million watched it (that game went to 4 OTs and the entire world was wanting Bama to lose). You just aren't pulling those numbers or 75 million would be a no-brainer.

Cincy being your highest-rated home game isn't going to move the needle much.
 
Maybe NBC needs to tell ND to relax their admission standards a little, if they are going to fork over that kind of money
 
OlyDuck said:
oregon's value to the Big 10 vs the value to the Big XII are different things. as well as to the Pac 10
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Apparently neither the B1G, nor the Big 12 see much value in Oregon. The B1G has said that if they add anyone else it will the Domers and the Big 12 doesn't appear to want them either.
 
trojanfan12 said:
Don't know how accurate it is, but from what I've been hearing, there really isn't much he can do to stop it. He's just mad that he had to find out the same way everyone else did.
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If you ever studied Ancient Rome you will notice the amazing similarities between Gavin Newsom and Lucius Sergius Catalina. Marcus Tullius Cicero finally put the kibosh on Catalina but it was a close run thing. Catalina was extremely handsome, super intelligent and absolutely determined to either rule Rome or destroy it. He would stoop to anything to accomplish what he wanted and deal with the worst scum of society so long as they would be his ally. Same thing with Newsom. I don't want to see USC left hanging if UCLA gets the word that leaving the PAC 12 will impact their appropriations immensely. It would put the Trojans in an impossible situation. Newsom would do it in a heartbeat if there were more people on the side of keeping USC and UCLA tethered to the PAC 12 than letting them go. Dude's a snake, man.
 
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