USC and UCLA planning to leave for B10 by 2024!

trojanfan12 said:
Shhhh, the Ducks don't know that.
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Yeah they do but they just can’t face the reality of the situation.

They are a delusional bunch and feel the B1G or SEC will give them an invite. If that doesn’t work then they are convinced they can carry the rest of the PAC.

After more schools bolt and they have no other choice but beg the Big 12 to take them it will be a humbling experience.
 
Goldbug said:
If you ever studied Ancient Rome you will notice the amazing similarities between Gavin Newsom and Lucius Sergius Catalina. Marcus Tullius Cicero finally put the kibosh on Catalina but it was a close run thing. Catalina was extremely handsome, super intelligent and absolutely determined to either rule Rome or destroy it. He would stoop to anything to accomplish what he wanted and deal with the worst scum of society so long as they would be his ally. Same thing with Newsom. I don't want to see USC left hanging if UCLA gets the word that leaving the PAC 12 will impact their appropriations immensely. It would put the Trojans in an impossible situation. Newsom would do it in a heartbeat if there were more people on the side of keeping USC and UCLA tethered to the PAC 12 than letting them go. Dude's a snake, man.
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B1G would just invite Oregon or Washington instead. They aren’t going to let USC get away it would be too humiliating facing the SEC under that scenario.
 
ericd7633 said:
1) My stance is having something is better than nothing in regards to a conference joining NBC. It would hopefully make the network invest a little more resources into CFB, which can only in turn help the ND publicity. I was hoping it would be the B1G, similar to what the ESPN package is, but I doubt it will be that.

2) I don't see the harm in letting it be known what it will keep to have ND on NBC. We played one of the weakest home schedules I can remember last year.

3) As for the schedule moving forward, if ND stays independent, it all depends on how many league games those conferences play. If it's 9, I feel pretty confident the Michigan, Michigan States, and Purdue's of the world would still schedule ND. USC has already stated they are keeping the annual game with ND. So their schedule shouldn't be impacted that much if teams play 9 league games. You'll only need to fill 4 games with USC, Navy and Stanford + the ACC 5.

4) If the CFP eventually moves to 12, ND is essentially assured a spot with 10 wins, so I'm not too concerned with SoS.
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1. I agree. Any game before or after would help ND with viewers. I'm guessing it'd have to be a Big12 game though, as the monster contract Fox is supposedly giving out to the B1G -- that will be where those games are.

2. There is definitely no harm, but $75 million is a huge number. If ND gets that -- I could see a team like Oregon going the Independent route. -- they essentially pulled in the same amount of viewers as ND last year. So they'd make a heck of a lot more than what they'd get simply being in the PAC.

3. I keep hearing about the conferences going to "pod's" -- If they set USC up with cross rivalry games with OSU, Michigan, PSU, etc. to go along with whoever is in their pod. It is going to be a ridiculous tough schedule, especially when they will have to make multiple 2,000 mile trips across multiple times zones each year for football. I could see it being phased out.

4. I agree with the CFP comment if they move to 12. Will be interesting to see if the CFP survives these super conferences or if the BIG/SEC breakoff and simply have their own CFP. I liked it much better when their was just 5 major conferences. This super conference stuff is getting out of hand
 
ericd7633 said:
As for the inventory of games. ND will typically play 7 homes games. So if the 75 million number is correct, it comes out to a little under 10 million. On average, you'll probably expect to get around 4 million viewers/game. Some games you'll see a massive rating(10+ million viewers for Clem/ND in 2020) and others you'll see a lower rating(GT/ND 2021).
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Your numbers are substantially off.

ND @ Stanford - 2.7
ND GT - 1.5
ND @ UVA - 3.7
ND Navy - 1.8
ND UNC - 2.3
ND USC - 2.9
ND Cincy - 3.8
ND @ Wisky - 5.4
ND Purdue - 2.6
ND Todledo - na
ND @ FSU - 7.8
12th game not measured

Home average - 2.12 million.
No home Four Million Club games.

www.sportsmediawatch.com

College Football TV Ratings

College football TV ratings for the 2024 regular season, bowls, College Football Playoff and National Championship.
www.sportsmediawatch.com www.sportsmediawatch.com
 
Wild Turkey said:
I wouldn't bet against ND getting the money because they still draw big ratings for their bigger games. I don't see a scenerio where teams in the B1G or SEC would stop playing the OOC. They can pretty much call anyone they want a game with and get it.
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In 2021 -- they ranked 9th in average viewers per game, right behind Michigan State and just ahead of Oregon. Personally I was shocked by those numbers. I'd think ND would be up with the Bama, Ohio State, Michigan's of CFB. Those 3 programs averaged almost 2 million more viewers than ND.

It is why I think with the Super Conferences and high impact cross division games teams will now have -- I could see the team being phased out of schedules being ND. If you are Auburn and you have to face Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia and say Oklahoma or Texas. Are you really going to say -- Let's schedule an OOC game with ND? Or if you are Michigan and you have to play Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State, Nebraska (if they ever find a coach) or Wisconsin -- then a crossover game with USC -- are you really going to want to play an OOC with ND?

The super confereneces, IMO, remove the necessity of such OOC games. Each team is going to be playing a gauntlet of teams in the conference matchups, so OOC will be used as essentially cupcake games to get the teams ready for the conference slate.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
Your numbers are substantially off.

ND @ Stanford - 2.7
ND GT - 1.5
ND @ UVA - 3.7
ND Navy - 1.8
ND UNC - 2.3
ND USC - 2.9
ND Cincy - 3.8
ND @ Wisky - 5.4
ND Purdue - 2.6
ND Todledo - na
ND @ FSU - 7.8
12th game not measured

Home average - 2.12 million.
No home Four Million Club games.

www.sportsmediawatch.com

College Football TV Ratings

College football TV ratings for the 2024 regular season, bowls, College Football Playoff and National Championship.
www.sportsmediawatch.com www.sportsmediawatch.com
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So what kind of money is NBC going to pay for that ??
 
Wild Turkey said:
B1G would just invite Oregon or Washington instead. They aren’t going to let USC get away it would be too humiliating facing the SEC under that scenario.
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Which would cause all kinds of problems in another state. Newsom wouldn't care. But if USC had to go to the B1G with an out of state partner is would suck big time for them. They want a partner from across town, not hundreds of miles away. It wouldn't be an easy-peasy situation like you're making it out to be.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
I totally disagree with this. Those are the very schools that have been loading up on great OOC. I believe it was all done knowing that the CFP will expand to 12 in 2026. We really haven't gotten to super conferences ... SEC just added 2, B1G added 2.

Also, all of this big money is predicated on large eyeball games. Those are the teams that can provide those with OOC games.

While the OU and TX games will become IC, UGA ahs the following scheduled:

- Clemson 5 times
- OU
- TX
- FSU
- UCLA
- tOSU
- Louisville
- NCSU
- Oregon

The schools on your list are the ones scheduling better OOC.
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These games were scheduled WAAAAAY in advance for logistical reasons. Texas has a game in 2031 with Florida scheduled -- they will schedule games as much as 15 years in advance.
And I am not saying the teams are going to cut off high profile OOC games immediately. But once the expansion is complete -- they will have way more high profile games/matchups they need in conference. That adding those games to OOC wouldn't help them at all and could actually hinder their chance of making a CFP.
 
Red_Alert said:
Well Charlie Weiss clearly had a schematic advantage on his resume.
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This kind?
Sick Body GIF by The Maury Show
 
Goldbug said:
Which would cause all kinds of problems in another state. Newsom wouldn't care. But if USC had to go to the B1G with an out of state partner is would suck big time for them. They want a partner from across town, not hundreds of miles away. It wouldn't be an easy-peasy situation like you're making it out to be.
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USC will join the B1G period and the B1G will do whatever they can to keep them in the fold. If you think UCLA being kept out by state politics is going to kill USC’s membership then your nuts. The B1G will just find another partner to go with them.
 
NewPhoneWhoDis said:
These games were scheduled WAAAAAY in advance for logistical reasons. Texas has a game in 2031 with Florida scheduled -- they will schedule games as much as 15 years in advance.
And I am not saying the teams are going to cut off high profile OOC games immediately. But once the expansion is complete -- they will have way more high profile games/matchups they need in conference. That adding those games to OOC wouldn't help them at all and could actually hinder their chance of making a CFP.
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I understand how college football scheduling works. Let me explain why I don't think this will happen. Those games started getting scheduled about the same time. It was about 3 years ago. I noticed at that time that Smart indicated in an interview he was confident in CFP expansion. I posted at the time that it was clear to the teams that with expansion SOS mattered, and getting an early season tough game wouldn't keep you out of the CFP. Then everyone started scheduling those games. As we found out later, the conferences knew that they had a committee working on expansion.

The TV contracts want big game inventory more than anything. The top teams can afford a tough OOC loss and still get in.

There are two things that could change my mind:

- Perhaps marginal teams - those 8-20 - can't afford a loss. Maybe they won't schedule while the top 1-6/8 will.

- If there aren't automatic qualifiers. I still think we get AQs, but with the SEC and B1G way ahead of the other conferences, they will want more of their teams in. They might insist on top12 teams, regardless of conference. I know the SEC will start negotiations with that. They may use it for leverage to get everything else they want, but they are going to start and say no AQs. If you get no AQs, then the losses will matter.
 
Wild Turkey said:
The 75 million might be a problem though the more I think about it because when are saying the B1G and SEC are worth 100 million a school for all sports.
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Nooooooooo, SOME of the schools are worth 100 million. Others are worth 150 million and a few more are worth 50 million or less. It just averages out to 100 million per school. No way Mizzou and Georgia are worth the same amount. Same for Maryland and Ohio State.
 
Wild Turkey said:
USC will join the B1G period and the B1G will do whatever they can to keep them in the fold. If you think UCLA being kept out by state politics is going to kill USC’s membership then your nuts. The B1G will just find another partner to go with them.
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I never said USC wasn't going to the B1G. Never. My point is it can be made a helluva lot more onerous if Newsom wants to play politics.
 
Wild Turkey said:
USC will join the B1G period and the B1G will do whatever they can to keep them in the fold. If you think UCLA being kept out by state politics is going to kill USC’s membership then your nuts. The B1G will just find another partner to go with them.
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This is what I've been thinking, but what other school though.
Who would go with USC, that they wanted
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
I understand how college football scheduling works. Let me explain why I don't think this will happen. Those games started getting scheduled about the same time. It was about 3 years ago. I noticed at that time that Smart indicated in an interview he was confident in CFP expansion. I posted at the time that it was clear to the teams that with expansion SOS mattered, and getting an early season tough game wouldn't keep you out of the CFP. Then everyone started scheduling those games. As we found out later, the conferences knew that they had a committee working on expansion.

The TV contracts want big game inventory more than anything. The top teams can afford a tough OOC loss and still get in.

There are two things that could change my mind:

- Perhaps marginal teams - those 8-20 - can't afford a loss. Maybe they won't schedule while the top 1-6/8 will.

- If there aren't automatic qualifiers. I still think we get AQs, but with the SEC and B1G way ahead of the other conferences, they will want more of their teams in. They might insist on top12 teams, regardless of conference. I know the SEC will start negotiations with that. They may use it for leverage to get everything else they want, but they are going to start and say no AQs. If you get no AQs, then the losses will matter.
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rumor is that Texas is in talks with psu to replace the UGA series.. Texas has Bama ('23), UM x2, tosu x2 on the horizon.
 
Goldbug said:
I never said USC wasn't going to the B1G. Never. My point is it can be made a helluva lot more onerous if Newsom wants to play politics.
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Over all the years we've heard any number of asshole politicians (but I am being redundant) say they are going to do something like this. I've never seen it come anywhere near a problem. If anything, UCLA has to move to the B1G as they are in 30 million of debt. It would be fiscally imprudent to not allow them to go.
 
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