Bitcoin

[HammerDown]

IF it gets down to $15K (or below) I'll probably pick up 1 or 2, but would rather see it get down to under $10K and I would definitely "splurge" then!!

I’m happy to buy more at $17,600

 

[Handicappers]

Just dumped another load for 1.5 Bitcoins

My CRO money has all but disappeared.

 

[JuiceTheGator]

Testing the support level again today, for the 5th time this year. Will she hold.....

 

[Wild Turkey]

Bitcoin briefly drops to its lowest level in 3 months as risk assets continue to get crushed

Bitcoin fell to its lowest level in three months on Monday as investors continued to dump risk assets amid expectations of higher interest rates.

www.cnbc.com

“Regulatory pressure, rising base rates, and inflation are pressing heavily on riskier asset classes, especially crypto, and are thus forcing liquidations, reducing capital available for investment, and increasing concerns over undefined regulatory controls,” said Sadie Raney, co-founder and head of operations at Strix Leviathan. “These forces may mute the overall crypto complex until the financial system stabilizes and a regulatory framework becomes more clear.”

Regulatory pressure is just starting.

 

[JuiceTheGator]

Bitcoin briefly drops to its lowest level in 3 months as risk assets continue to get crushed

Bitcoin fell to its lowest level in three months on Monday as investors continued to dump risk assets amid expectations of higher interest rates.

www.cnbc.com

“Regulatory pressure, rising base rates, and inflation are pressing heavily on riskier asset classes, especially crypto, and are thus forcing liquidations, reducing capital available for investment, and increasing concerns over undefined regulatory controls,” said Sadie Raney, co-founder and head of operations at Strix Leviathan. “These forces may mute the overall crypto complex until the financial system stabilizes and a regulatory framework becomes more clear.”

Regulatory pressure is just starting.

I thought an unstable financial system was the reason FOR Bitcoin?! You'd think it would head upward as everything goes to shit? Gold as well, but it's also in the crapper.

 

[dbldwn711]

I thought an unstable financial system was the reason FOR Bitcoin?! You'd think it would head upward as everything goes to shit? Gold as well, but it's also in the crapper.

Gold not going up is a surprise. Any thoughts there as to why?

 

[Wild Turkey]

Gold not going up is a surprise. Any thoughts there as to why?

It’s been high for quite sometime and when that happens people that mine it go big so my guess would be supply increased.

 

[JuiceTheGator]

Gold not going up is a surprise. Any thoughts there as to why?

Usually gold spikes when things go to shit, there's inflation and threats of foreign strife. Of course, we have all those now and gold continues to take a shit.

 

[Fish]

Usually gold spikes when things go to shit, there's inflation and threats of foreign strife. Of course, we have all those now and gold continues to take a shit.
View attachment 85401

It's hard to fuck up everything, Biden's a pure genius.

 

[dbldwn711]

Usually gold spikes when things go to shit, there's inflation and threats of foreign strife. Of course, we have all those now and gold continues to take a shit.
View attachment 85401

I agree. That tells me that the underlying economy is still strong. Do you agree or disagree?

 

[JuiceTheGator]

I agree. That tells me that the underlying economy is still strong. Do you agree or disagree?

Tells me speculators think the Fed will back off. So, they have $ ready to buy stocks.
The Fed has always been childishly stupid and always fucks up. So, those investors might be making a mistake.

 

[dbldwn711]

Tells me speculators think the Fed will back off. So, they have $ ready to buy stocks.
The Fed has always been childishly stupid and always fucks up. So, those investors might be making a mistake.

Appreciate the insight. I see more fed rate hikes coming. He’s gotten the housing market under control but there are other harder to reach sectors which are still too strong.

 

[Wild Turkey]

I agree. That tells me that the underlying economy is still strong. Do you agree or disagree?

I don't understand this economy.

Inflation is high
Unemployment is low
There are people with cash and they are spending it
We have a weird supply chain issue

I think several things are at work:
1. Gas prices and the oil companies that started shutting things down when COVID hit (which is understandable) are having too hard of a time ramping back up because they can't find the labor and can't get the materials to expand drilling. Add in Russia and we have high gas prices which raise the price of everything.
2. China has interrupted its manufacturing base with COVID shutdowns and the end result is we can't get resupplied here because we became too dependent on China.
3. There are plenty of companies that are happy with their profit margins while producing less. I think it may take years before car dealerships carry the inventory they used to because they are just as profitable because they are getting full price and sometimes plus for their vehicles. The average new car is selling for 48K right now.

Problems ahead:
- Retail is going to take a beating because disposable income is dropping dramatically for the working and lower middle class because basics have increased so much
- With high-interest rates, the housing market is going to slow down and that supports a big number of jobs from actual construction to materials
- Commercial construction will take big hits also
- Municipalities still have not dealt with the massive cost of COVID in regards to lost sales tax revenues as they have been kicking the can down the road
- We really don't know how bad the government spending spree is going to affect the economy because honestly we've been propping it up with borrowed money but that well is dry

We need gas to come down and materials to start following so supply will increase and demand will decrease. If we can get those two issues solved then we can work our way out of this problem. I do think people are finally going back to work as I noticed staffing increases and more regular working hours so that is a positive.

I went to the grocery store yesterday and here are some of the prices:

Lean ground beef - $9.32 a lb
Dozen eggs - $3.99
12 pack of Coke was the regular price (I haven't bought Coke Zero at the regular price in years there is always a promotion going on)
Sliced Deli meat was $11.99 a lb

What should have been a grocery bill of about $220 was $286. My wife and I can afford it but working families with 3 to 4 kids are going to be hurting.

 

[dbldwn711]

I don't understand this economy.

Inflation is high
Unemployment is low
There are people with cash and they are spending it
We have a weird supply chain issue

I think several things are at work:
1. Gas prices and the oil companies that started shutting things down when COVID hit (which is understandable) are having too hard of a time ramping back up because they can't find the labor and can't get the materials to expand drilling. Add in Russia and we have high gas prices which raise the price of everything.
2. China has interrupted its manufacturing base with COVID shutdowns and the end result is we can't get resupplied here because we became too dependent on China.
3. There are plenty of companies that are happy with their profit margins while producing less. I think it may take years before car dealerships carry the inventory they used to because they are just as profitable because they are getting full price and sometimes plus for their vehicles. The average new car is selling for 48K right now.

Problems ahead:
- Retail is going to take a beating because disposable income is dropping dramatically for the working and lower middle class because basics have increased so much
- With high-interest rates, the housing market is going to slow down and that supports a big number of jobs from actual construction to materials
- Commercial construction will take big hits also
- Municipalities still have not dealt with the massive cost of COVID in regards to lost sales tax revenues as they have been kicking the can down the road
- We really don't know how bad the government spending spree is going to affect the economy because honestly we've been propping it up with borrowed money but that well is dry

We need gas to come down and materials to start following so supply will increase and demand will decrease. If we can get those two issues solved then we can work our way out of this problem. I do think people are finally going back to work as I noticed staffing increases and more regular working hours so that is a positive.

I went to the grocery store yesterday and here are some of the prices:

Lean ground beef - $9.32 a lb
Dozen eggs - $3.99
12 pack of Coke was the regular price (I haven't bought Coke Zero at the regular price in years there is always a promotion going on)
Sliced Deli meat was $11.99 a lb

What should have been a grocery bill of about $220 was $286. My wife and I can afford it but working families with 3 to 4 kids are going to be hurting.

Wow. Lot there. Appreciate the post. I agree with a lot of it. I especially agree with the comment about car dealerships. I think this is the new business model. It sucks.

Unemployment is low and entire industries can’t staff their companies with workers. Does that sound like a recession to you? It doesn’t to me.

@SlinkyRedfoot talks a lot about the supply chain issues and I agree with him. It’s not just the ports. It’s long truck haulers and the railroads.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

@SlinkyRedfoot talks a lot about the supply chain issues and I agree with him. It’s not just the ports. It’s long truck haulers and the railroads.

I have a lot of experience moving goods from Asia to the US, and then all over the US. Transportation is a total clusterfuck. It's better than it was a year and a half ago, but it's still a far cry from what it used to be.

Not enough ocean containers, not enough vessel space, not enough rail chassis, not enough over-the-road chassis, not enough truck drivers, not enough workers at carrier terminals, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. Customer service in the trucking industry has never been that great but it's straight garbage these days.

 

[Dolemite censored]

I don't understand this economy.

Inflation is high
Unemployment is low
There are people with cash and they are spending it
We have a weird supply chain issue

I think several things are at work:
1. Gas prices and the oil companies that started shutting things down when COVID hit (which is understandable) are having too hard of a time ramping back up because they can't find the labor and can't get the materials to expand drilling. Add in Russia and we have high gas prices which raise the price of everything.
2. China has interrupted its manufacturing base with COVID shutdowns and the end result is we can't get resupplied here because we became too dependent on China.
3. There are plenty of companies that are happy with their profit margins while producing less. I think it may take years before car dealerships carry the inventory they used to because they are just as profitable because they are getting full price and sometimes plus for their vehicles. The average new car is selling for 48K right now.

Problems ahead:
- Retail is going to take a beating because disposable income is dropping dramatically for the working and lower middle class because basics have increased so much
- With high-interest rates, the housing market is going to slow down and that supports a big number of jobs from actual construction to materials
- Commercial construction will take big hits also
- Municipalities still have not dealt with the massive cost of COVID in regards to lost sales tax revenues as they have been kicking the can down the road
- We really don't know how bad the government spending spree is going to affect the economy because honestly we've been propping it up with borrowed money but that well is dry

We need gas to come down and materials to start following so supply will increase and demand will decrease. If we can get those two issues solved then we can work our way out of this problem. I do think people are finally going back to work as I noticed staffing increases and more regular working hours so that is a positive.

I went to the grocery store yesterday and here are some of the prices:

Lean ground beef - $9.32 a lb
Dozen eggs - $3.99
12 pack of Coke was the regular price (I haven't bought Coke Zero at the regular price in years there is always a promotion going on)
Sliced Deli meat was $11.99 a lb

What should have been a grocery bill of about $220 was $286. My wife and I can afford it but working families with 3 to 4 kids are going to be hurting.

Good points. Some of the food prices are so out of line that I'm seeing a lot of product go unsold and therefor sharply discounted toward the "sell by" dates.

You are right about retail, especially clothes and some furnishings. Lots of 50% to 75% "discounts on clothes at Macy's a couple of days ago.

 

[Dolemite censored]

I have a lot of experience moving goods from Asia to the US, and then all over the US. Transportation is a total clusterfuck. It's better than it was a year and a half ago, but it's still a far cry from what it used to be.

Not enough ocean containers, not enough vessel space, not enough rail chassis, not enough over-the-road chassis, not enough truck drivers, not enough workers at carrier terminals, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. Customer service in the trucking industry has never been that great but it's straight garbage these days.

Stop bringing in fentanyl.

 

[Wild Turkey]

Wow. Lot there. Appreciate the post. I agree with a lot of it. I especially agree with the comment about car dealerships. I think this is the new business model. It sucks.

Unemployment is low and entire industries can’t staff their companies with workers. Does that sound like a recession to you? It doesn’t to me.

@SlinkyRedfoot talks a lot about the supply chain issues and I agree with him. It’s not just the ports. It’s long truck haulers and the railroads.

I think we need a new name for what we are in because it meets the definition of a recession but the underlining issues don't measure up. Everyone agrees inflation is an issue the problem is in the past the biggest weapon the fed had to fight inflation was to raise interest rates which typically cooled inflation. However, our problem with inflation is more of a supply chain issue than anything else and like Slinky said we need more equipment to help fix that. Now if you are in the business of moving material and you have all the business you can handle and it cost you more to expand because of interest rates are you going to do it? I don't think you are.

I am concerned the fed playbook in this economy will have the opposite effect of what they are trying to achieve and they will end up extending the period of inflation. However, that is just a guess because no one knows how to truly combat what we are in. Peace between Ukraine and Russia would help considerably if oil started flowing freely from Russia but honestly, my suspicion is that it is already going to India and China so Europe would get relief but I don't think it solves the global issue.

 

[dbldwn711]

I think we need a new name for what we are in because it meets the definition of a recession but the underlining issues don't measure up. Everyone agrees inflation is an issue the problem is in the past the biggest weapon the fed had to fight inflation was to raise interest rates which typically cooled inflation. However, our problem with inflation is more of a supply chain issue than anything else and like Slinky said we need more equipment to help fix that. Now if you are in the business of moving material and you have all the business you can handle and it cost you more to expand because of interest rates are you going to do it? I don't think you are.

I am concerned the fed playbook in this economy will have the opposite effect of what they are trying to achieve and they will end up extending the period of inflation. However, that is just a guess because no one knows how to truly combat what we are in. Peace between Ukraine and Russia would help considerably if oil started flowing freely from Russia but honestly, my suspicion is that it is already going to India and China so Europe would get relief but I don't think it solves the global issue.

IMO this inflation is more a product of pumping too much money into the system during Covid than was necessary. No doubt supply chain issues are preventing the easier fix to that problem but there was simply too much money put into the system. Need to “pay for that” fix the supply chain issues and see how we are gonna replace the energy Russia supplied before things get back to normal.

 

[Fish]

New cars are ridiculous, used cars not so much as before. Seems like the demand for cars has decreased, used car market responding, new car market well dealers are kind of locked into what the manufacturers say.