Volbound1700 Playoff Watch - Week 8

the loser of Michigan/Ohio State should be eliminated from playoff contention, tbh. Both of those schedules are super weak this year, they won't have the resume.

ultimately, i think we're going to see

Clemson
two SEC teams
winner of Michigan/Ohio State

i doubt TCU goes undefeated
 
Hitman Hart said:
the loser of Michigan/Ohio State should be eliminated from playoff contention, tbh. Both of those schedules are super weak this year, they won't have the resume.

ultimately, i think we're going to see

Clemson
two SEC teams
winner of Michigan/Ohio State

i doubt TCU goes undefeated
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Regarding the top, I think it will depend on who loses that game. If the SEC has a little more chaos and Ohio State is the loser, I think the media will push to get Ohio State in.

If Michigan loses, I think they are out.

Don't underestimate the love for Ohio State right now (and frankly they look like a playoff team). I think there will be efforts to get Ohio State in the CFB Playoffs.
 


Finebaum even says Ohio State is top team.
 
Volbound1700 said:
@WhosYourDawggy - I see your point and I think it will be mute in that scenario because I think there will be a slot open without kicking out Pac12 for 2-loss champion.

However, I do think the opening loss to FSU looms large for LSU. If FSU wins 8-9 games, I think it would look better for LSU's resume. If FSU is a 6-6 team, then that may draw some questions.

LSU's home loss to Tennessee also looks very ugly for them.

Tennessee gets questioned about the Pittsburgh game now because Pitt is crapping the bed hard in ACC so that overtime win looks more bad at this point than a solid win like it was at the time. (Pitt was by far our worse game of the season if you watch us. Hendon Hooker was off and we scored only 3 points in the second half. We also had several stupid turnovers in second half including a fumble to give Pitt the ball in our red zone off a punt return).

Edit: Keep in mind that the 2007 2-loss LSU team had a solid OOC win over Virginia Tech and they only loss to ranked teams (both games in OT off fluke plays). Also 2007 saw a lot of chaos with no undefeated teams and only a single 1-loss team in the Power 6 (Ohio State).

For LSU to make it, there would need to be some chaos.
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I am going to type it one last time ...

1. The committee's job is to find the 4 best teams at the end of the year to play in the CFP. That's in writing, it's not open to dispute, it's what they have done since it's inception.

2. Because of that, they have taken 2 teams from the same conference twice, they have left conferences out, they have taken a team that lost badly in their first game, they have taken teams that didn't even get to the conference championship (at least twice), and they have left off teams that appear to have been good enough to make it (TCU). All of that is because their primary stated mission is to put the 4 best teams as they see them in the CFP.

3. It's only after they find certain teams "comparable" that they start looking at H2H, SOS, CCs, etc.

4. A ton can and will happen between now and the end of the season.

5. The only point I have been making is that if LSU, who has looked really good in their most recent two games, has turned a corner and runs off 7 straight that includes 2 wins against Bama and UGA/UTjr, they will have the best wins of any teams being considered. They will be the SECCC, which right or wrong carries weight. If the committee sticks to their stated mission to put the best 4 teams in the CFP, it would be hard to put Bama, UGA, or UTjr ahead of them.

To your post, while the UTjr game will be looked at, obviously, it's all about where they are in week 13, not week 5. That's how this works. And, 2007 is irrelevant as that was not CFP and the rules they follow.
 
Deep Creek said:
Counselor, you just described Oregon.

But only if that ass whooping they got from your hairy dawgs even qualifies as "bad" and they finish the "come back". :beer2:
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Which is why if they win out they will have a shot at the CFP, and should have a shot at the CFP the way the rules are currently written.
 
michaeljordan_fan said:
Based on what you are posting about 2-loss teams getting in...it's clear you have no idea.

Feel free to link to an instance of a 2-loss SEC champ getting into the playoff over a 1-loss P5 champ.
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The fact that it has never happened does not mean it can't. It's not as likely, I've only stated that a ton of times. But you show me the rules that state that a 2 loss team can't get in. Feel free to link to that rule. Because that rule doesn't exist because I do know what I am talking about. Just because I know what I am talking about doesn't mean I will be right, nor does it mean that LSU will get in. But their run of 7 games and wins over Bama and UTjr/UGA and an SECC will most certainly put them in the mix to be one of the best 4 standing at week 13. And that is what counts.
 
i dont think its impossible but can LSU make up enough ground in the time there left tho. like we can look at the teams ahead of them that will play but games like USC and UCLA, Ohio State vs Michigan happen late so a loss might not drop them that far unless LSU was already closer.
 
OlyDuck said:
i dont think its impossible but can LSU make up enough ground in the time there left tho. like we can look at the teams ahead of them that will play but games like USC and UCLA, Ohio State vs Michigan happen late so a loss might not drop them that far unless LSU was already closer.
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I really think it will be a mute point because I don't think LSU is good enough to win the SEC anyways.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
The fact that it has never happened does not mean it can't. It's not as likely, I've only stated that a ton of times. But you show me the rules that state that a 2 loss team can't get in. Feel free to link to that rule. Because that rule doesn't exist because I do know what I am talking about. Just because I know what I am talking about doesn't mean I will be right, nor does it mean that LSU will get in. But their run of 7 games and wins over Bama and UTjr/UGA and an SECC will most certainly put them in the mix to be one of the best 4 standing at week 13. And that is what counts.
Click to expand...

Of course a 2 loss team can get in.

They just won't be getting in over a 1-loss p5 champ, especially when one of their losses is to a bad FSU team, and the other is a home blowout.
 
osubuckeye89 said:
@WhosYourDawggy Ohio state had 1 loss to Va Tech that year. That’s the difference

LSU has 2 Florida State and a blowout loss to Tennessee.
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I get that. I don't know how many times I have to say it ... I get that 2 losses is a problem. But a team that wins the SECC, and has wins against UGA/UTjr and Bama is going to get serious consideration for the CFP if you have 2 undefeateds (B1G and ACC), and then 1 loss PAC and B12 champs.

For some reason people can't step back and ponder the idea that if LSU can do what I am hypothetically saying they might do - win 7 in a row after a slow start including wins against the no. 1 team and another team that is top 3-5, and is the SECC will be considered one of the top 4 teams. That is what matters. They previous losses will be discounted because what counts is whether they would be deemed a top 4 team in week 13.

Seriously, think about it ... if LSU does that what does tOSU have in the win column that is close to that? Clemson? B12 or PAC Champs?
 
michaeljordan_fan said:
Of course a 2 loss team can get in.

They just won't be getting in over a 1-loss p5 champ, especially when one of their losses is to a bad FSU team, and the other is a home blowout.
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Let's agree to disagree. We are both repeating ourselves. I've made my point. Others disagree. I'm fine with that.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
I get that. I don't know how many times I have to say it ... I get that 2 losses is a problem. But a team that wins the SECC, and has wins against UGA/UTjr and Bama is going to get serious consideration for the CFP if you have 2 undefeateds (B1G and ACC), and then 1 loss PAC and B12 champs.

For some reason people can't step back and ponder the idea that if LSU can do what I am hypothetically saying they might do - win 7 in a row after a slow start including wins against the no. 1 team and another team that is top 3-5, and is the SECC will be considered one of the top 4 teams. That is what matters. They previous losses will be discounted because what counts is whether they would be deemed a top 4 team in week 13.

Seriously, think about it ... if LSU does that what does tOSU have in the win column that is close to that? Clemson? B12 or PAC Champs?
Click to expand...

They don't have 2 losses, including 1 to a wildly mediocre FSU team and the other loss being a complete non competitive blowout AT HOME

IF they played Tennessee closer I could maybe see it, but they didnt.

You have to look at the losses too, not just the wins.

Are we really going to start pretending that early season losses don't count at all?
 
We are saying Oregon is disqualified for getting blown out by UGA

But LSU with 2 fucking losses is still "VERY MUCH IN IT!" when they got blown out AT HOME by Tennessee and that game was like 2 weeks ago not in week 1

Lol.
 
osubuckeye89 said:
They don't have 2 losses, including 1 to a wildly mediocre FSU team and the other loss being a complete non competitive blowout AT HOME

IF they played Tennessee closer I could maybe see it, but they didnt.

You have to look at the losses too, not just the wins.
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I am aware of that. I am also aware of the fact that LSU would be one of the best 4 teams in week 13. I would suggest that you are putting too much emphasis on losses, instead of looking at the trend line of wins, including who those wins would be against. And you are discounting the bias toward having the SEC champ in the CFP which has never not happened.

Look you are a reasonable poster here. It's not like I don't read a shit ton about this, and it's not like I don't pay an inordinate amount of attention to it. Here is just one article that explains the thought process of the committee, from people who were inside the committee deliberations .. I found this in 1 minute of googling:

5. Wins are more important than losses, but losses do matter.​

Ohio State won the national title in 2014 but a Week 2 loss to 6-6 Virginia Tech nearly kept it out of the field. A year later, Oklahoma’s October loss to a 5-7 Texas team nearly pushed it out of the field, too.

A team’s record versus the AP Top 25 and Top 10 is a key metric that can float teams to the top of the polls. A team that’s 2-1 against the top 10 will have an edge against a team that’s 0-2. A team that’s 0-0 against the top 10 may have an edge over a team that’s 0-2. The latter got its chance against elite competition. Some committee members may feel the former team should get a chance.

But losses to bad teams are discussed heavily in the room, even if they don’t show up in that particular metric. The number of losses isn’t as important in the room as it is in human polls, but bad losses are factored in, even if they ultimately can be outweighed by big wins. That Ohio State team in 2014 edged Baylor and TCU in part because it had two wins over top-20 opponents and a win over a top-25 team. Baylor and TCU had just two wins over top-25 opponents.

That Oklahoma team in 2015 closed its season with three wins over teams the committee ranked in the top 16 and had a road win over a top-25 Tennessee team on its resume.

A loss to a top-10 or top-25 team matters because it’s a missed opportunity to add a key resume bullet point that might push a team into the Playoff field. There are only so many chances like that in a season.

It does not matter what a team was ranked when a team played it. All that matters is how the committee ranks a team in the present moment. TCU’s 2014 team beat No. 4 Oklahoma, but the Sooners went 8-5 and finished outside the committee’s top 25. A huge win at the moment didn’t count as a top-25 win by the season’s end.

theathletic.com

Inside the room where College Football Playoff teams are chosen: 13 things they don’t tell you about the committee

Why are there 13 College Football Playoff committee members? How do they pick their top 25 and get down to four teams? And more.
theathletic.com theathletic.com
 
osubuckeye89 said:
We are saying Oregon is disqualified for getting blown out by UGA

But LSU with 2 fucking losses is still "VERY MUCH IN IT!" when they got blown out AT HOME by Tennessee and that game was like 2 weeks ago not in week 1

Lol.
Click to expand...

I think only 1-2 posters are saying that to be honest. I think all of this is mute discussion as I think both LSU and Oregon will lose a game.
 
osubuckeye89 said:
We are saying Oregon is disqualified for getting blown out by UGA

But LSU with 2 fucking losses is still "VERY MUCH IN IT!" when they got blown out AT HOME by Tennessee and that game was like 2 weeks ago not in week 1

Lol.
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I am not saying Oregon is out of it, FWIW. If Oregon runs the table and their only loss is to UGA, I believe they will be in it depending on what happens elsewhere.
 
Volbound1700 said:
I think only 1-2 posters are saying that to be honest. I think all of this is mute discussion as I think both LSU and Oregon will lose a game.
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Of course all this is moot if they loose games. That's a given in these types of discussions.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
I am aware of that. I am also aware of the fact that LSU would be one of the best 4 teams in week 13. I would suggest that you are putting too much emphasis on losses, instead of looking at the trend line of wins, including who those wins would be against. And you are discounting the bias toward having the SEC champ in the CFP which has never not happened.

Look you are a reasonable poster here. It's not like I don't read a shit ton about this, and it's not like I don't pay an inordinate amount of attention to it. Here is just one article that explains the thought process of the committee, from people who were inside the committee deliberations .. I found this in 1 minute of googling:

5. Wins are more important than losses, but losses do matter.​

Ohio State won the national title in 2014 but a Week 2 loss to 6-6 Virginia Tech nearly kept it out of the field. A year later, Oklahoma’s October loss to a 5-7 Texas team nearly pushed it out of the field, too.

A team’s record versus the AP Top 25 and Top 10 is a key metric that can float teams to the top of the polls. A team that’s 2-1 against the top 10 will have an edge against a team that’s 0-2. A team that’s 0-0 against the top 10 may have an edge over a team that’s 0-2. The latter got its chance against elite competition. Some committee members may feel the former team should get a chance.

But losses to bad teams are discussed heavily in the room, even if they don’t show up in that particular metric. The number of losses isn’t as important in the room as it is in human polls, but bad losses are factored in, even if they ultimately can be outweighed by big wins. That Ohio State team in 2014 edged Baylor and TCU in part because it had two wins over top-20 opponents and a win over a top-25 team. Baylor and TCU had just two wins over top-25 opponents.

That Oklahoma team in 2015 closed its season with three wins over teams the committee ranked in the top 16 and had a road win over a top-25 Tennessee team on its resume.

A loss to a top-10 or top-25 team matters because it’s a missed opportunity to add a key resume bullet point that might push a team into the Playoff field. There are only so many chances like that in a season.

It does not matter what a team was ranked when a team played it. All that matters is how the committee ranks a team in the present moment. TCU’s 2014 team beat No. 4 Oklahoma, but the Sooners went 8-5 and finished outside the committee’s top 25. A huge win at the moment didn’t count as a top-25 win by the season’s end.

theathletic.com

Inside the room where College Football Playoff teams are chosen: 13 things they don’t tell you about the committee

Why are there 13 College Football Playoff committee members? How do they pick their top 25 and get down to four teams? And more.
theathletic.com theathletic.com
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Oh no, I never discount the SEC bias. Lol.

I'm just saying they are going to cause a giant shit storm if they put a 2 loss team in over 1 loss P5 champs purely because SEC!

Ive said before the only reason Ohio State got in in 2014 was because the competition was TCU and Baylor

If it was Texas and Oklahoma we dont get in
 
osubuckeye89 said:
Oh no, I never discount the SEC bias. Lol.

I'm just saying they are going to cause a giant shit storm if they put a 2 loss team in over 1 loss P5 champs purely because SEC!

Ive said before the only reason Ohio State got in in 2014 was because the competition was TCU and Baylor

If it was Texas and Oklahoma we dont get in
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Which is the only way a 2 loss SECC would get in ... if the competition was TCU/Baylor or a 1-loss USC/Oregon. Lack of respect. Which is why I can't wait for 12 teams ... then we will see the lack of respect due to results on the field H2H.
 
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