You have a valid point but does the SEC really want the B1G to have a solid footprint in the South?
If the SEC were to take the teams I listed they lock every major team in the south up and there is no one of worth left with the exception of Miami that is debatable.
I think the SEC has the pull to make it happen without lowering the compensation for the other schools.
Would they want to do it? I think they probably would if the decision was being made today. Now if we go 10 years before any of the teams can leave would they be viable at that point? A decade of under funding could decimate them to nothing more than names of the past.
When the GOR is up (whenever that is) I think the SEC takes 4 teams. You can make a case they won’t but I see it happening because more than likely everything will move to a streaming platform and the inventory will be valuable.
Before I respond to your points, tell me why the bottom 8 teams in the SEC would want to continue to bring in teams better than them. There comes a point where the bottom 8 are going to say "stop, enough." We've probably already reached that point what with the new 9 game IC schedule that they have stated they don't like.
To your points:
The South footprint argument is really the only thing the "expand for expansion" folks can come up with. And it doesn't make sense. Who cares? We already have the ACC in our geographic footprint, and several G5 conferences. It's not like if the B1G gets Clemson and FSU that the numbers will drop off for any SEC school. That's not how it works. They won't become a "southern league." And the B1G getting a few more teams doesn't affect the SEC's profits, or the quality of the SEC in any way. We will still have more top teams, and the most rabid fans, and make the most money.
Regarding compensation, you can't come up with an extra $450 million per year bringing in UNC and NSCU/UVA/VaTech. You will barely be able to do a per share increase with Clemson and FSU. The others don't move the needle, and I just don't see the SEC going to discounted shares. There is a unity in the SEC I don't think will go away. What exactly is the way they do this without lowering everyone else's money?
4 teams don't make sense. After many years they are just about to get to a 3-6-6 schedule that relies on having 16. The beauty of the schedule is that it fits perfectly - it's symmetrical in a way that is awesome - almost all rivalries are maintained, and you get to play each team every other year (instead of every 6 years). With ESPN handling all the games, the schedules are going to be announced way further in advance, which is great for fans and students. You will know that you play X team the 7th week of every year. Fans and schools can make plans years in advance. If you blow up the symmetrical aspect of that and go with 18 teams, now you can't do 6-6 anymore and will have to do something like 6-6-2+4, etc. which will make scheduling uncertain and difficult. They don't want anything to do with that.
The last paragraph you just pulled out of your ass. You criticized someone else for throwing shit on the wall. That's what you did there. You and I and everyone else have no idea what CFB will be like in 13 years. If you go back 13 years to 2010, think what was going on ... totally different from today. So, no, you have no idea how or if some shitty program that gets less than 500K viewers will be worth $110+ million per year. If you do, let's hear it.
I am not trying to be overly critical when I say this, but you are really having to stretch to make these arguments. The most obvious thing is for the SEC to take a decade or more to absorb the two new teams, the expanded CFP, NIL, transfer portal, and likely players' employee status in the next 10 years. I wold also point out that they have to figure out how to keep coaches when burnout is getting worse and worse. Future expansion will only make sense if the economic model changes drastically in a way none of us can foresee.
Meanwhile, the ACC should be studying how the fuck they can make their fans like football better, or if they can't, become basketball only or something like that. Do that instead of trying to jump somewhere else.
