PAC News

[Wild Turkey]

This morning's rumors:

PAC-12 Has Brutal Media Deal Outlook, Insider Claims

The PAC-12 continues to tread water to stay alive amid no new media deal. Andrew Marchand reported several major networks are out.

www.outkick.com

“ESPN: unlikely. Amazon: unlikely. CBS: no. NBC/USA: no. Fox: no. Those are the biggest players. Then, you get into Apple. They’re a little bit of a wildcard,” Marchand recently said when breaking down the situation.

John Ourand pushed back a little claiming that ESPN might be out for a big payday, but not entirely out of the picture. Marchand responded he’d be “very surprised” if ESPN matched the Big 12’s media deal for the PAC-12.


Basically, we are way past the original deadline that George Kliavkoff set, about 10 days to the deadline that Washington State's president gave to the media of when a deal would be announced and then you have all the Colorado rumors. Right now it does not look very good for the PAC.

My personal opinion is that if Oregon and Washington were fully on board with the GOR then this deal would have been done but everything points to them holding out and looking to join the B1G at a reduced revenue rate. Once that happens the 4 corners jump to the B12 and the PAC is a G5 conference.

I think the B1G is just sitting back and letting it play out so they have deniability for tampering and make the claim they didn't kill the PAC but that is exactly what they are doing.

 

[Deep Creek]

If you put the Big 12 and PAC 12 together, which teams move the needle enough to draw significant eyeballs w/o having a winning/cinderella season ala TCU last year? Not any IMHO. So why should the media offer big deals?

If you forced me to rank them or pick who I think would be a “must see in Peoria”, I’d say Oregon/Washington are a toss up and then BYU…who might outdraw the first two because of the LDS population. The rest of the them would be a 20+ whatever tie!

 

[duckboy33]

If you put the Big 12 and PAC 12 together, which teams move the needle enough to draw significant eyeballs w/o having a winning/cinderella season ala TCU last year? Not any IMHO. So why should the media offer big deals?

If you forced me to rank them or pick who I think would be a “must see in Peoria”, I’d say Oregon/Washington are a toss up and then BYU…who might outdraw the first two because of the LDS population. The rest of the them would be a 20+ whatever tie!

Top 10 (PAC12/Big12) Most Watched in 2022:
1. Oregon - 2.21M (12th nationally)
2. TCU - 2.20M (13th nationally)
3. Oklahoma state - 1.68M (24th nationally)
4. Baylor - 1.32M (29th nationally)
5. Kansas State - 1.23M (30th nationally)
6. Utah - 1.16M (33rd nationally)
7. Washington - 1.15M (34th nationally)
8. BYU - 997K (38th nationally)
9. Washington State - 907K (41st nationally)
10. Iowa State - 882K (42nd nationally)

Top 10 in 2021:
1. Oregon - 2.57M (10th nationally)
2. Oklahoma State - 1.58M (22nd nationally)
3. Iowa State - 1.22M (27th nationally)
4. Cincinnati - 1.22M (28th nationally)
5. Baylor - 1.16M (30th nationally)
6. Utah - 994K (37th nationally)
7. Washington - 985K (38th nationally)
8. West Virginia - 948K (40th nationally)
9. TCU - 907K (41st nationally)
10. BYU - 893K (42nd nationally)

Based on the last 2 seasons, it looks like Oregon followed by Oklahoma State.

 

[ralphiewvu]

This morning's rumors:

PAC-12 Has Brutal Media Deal Outlook, Insider Claims

The PAC-12 continues to tread water to stay alive amid no new media deal. Andrew Marchand reported several major networks are out.

www.outkick.com

“ESPN: unlikely. Amazon: unlikely. CBS: no. NBC/USA: no. Fox: no. Those are the biggest players. Then, you get into Apple. They’re a little bit of a wildcard,” Marchand recently said when breaking down the situation.

John Ourand pushed back a little claiming that ESPN might be out for a big payday, but not entirely out of the picture. Marchand responded he’d be “very surprised” if ESPN matched the Big 12’s media deal for the PAC-12.


Basically, we are way past the original deadline that George Kliavkoff set, about 10 days to the deadline that Washington State's president gave to the media of when a deal would be announced and then you have all the Colorado rumors. Right now it does not look very good for the PAC.

My personal opinion is that if Oregon and Washington were fully on board with the GOR then this deal would have been done but everything points to them holding out and looking to join the B1G at a reduced revenue rate. Once that happens the 4 corners jump to the B12 and the PAC is a G5 conference.

I think the B1G is just sitting back and letting it play out so they have deniability for tampering and make the claim they didn't kill the PAC but that is exactly what they are doing.

It sucks for the B12 in that it almost assuredly requires UO and uDub jumping to the B1G to get more then one four corner school. I don’t truly believe Az, ASU and UU jump until those 2 jump to the B1G. At that point the B12 almost has to take them all to completely destroy the PAC as a Power conference. Thing is, it certainly seems as if UO and uDub aren’t able to jump that soon. So this is held in limbo forever as no one wants to be the first to make the move and Colorado leaving doesn’t necessarily start any dominos.

One thing is certain on this end, there is ZERO need to grab ANY G5s right now for the B12. SDSU will be there wanting in if the PAC is gutted.

 

[Wild Turkey]

It sucks for the B12 in that it almost assuredly requires UO and uDub jumping to the B1G to get more then one four corner school. I don’t truly believe Az, ASU and UU jump until those 2 jump to the B1G. At that point the B12 almost has to take them all to completely destroy the PAC as a Power conference. Thing is, it certainly seems as if UO and uDub aren’t able to jump that soon. So this is held in limbo forever as no one wants to be the first to make the move and Colorado leaving doesn’t necessarily start any dominos.

One thing is certain on this end, there is ZERO need to grab ANY G5s right now for the B12. SDSU will be there wanting in if the PAC is gutted.

The above is not true.

If the PAC can't get a network deal equal to the B12 the chances of a Colorado go up substantially and once one team moves it will motivate others to do it as well. A big factor in getting a network deal is having a GOR in place and I don't see Oregon or Washington signing it without an out and don't see a network giving a deal if they aren't in. At some point, one of the 4 corners is going to say enough is enough and jump ship and then the dominoes fall.

I can promise you the B1G is not going to do anything right now because they have a big enough mess with scheduling as it is and can wait for all this to unfold and have two years to figure it out.

 

[ralphiewvu]

The above is not true.

If the PAC can't get a network deal equal to the B12 the chances of a Colorado go up substantially and once one team moves it will motivate others to do it as well. A big factor in getting a network deal is having a GOR in place and I don't see Oregon or Washington signing it without an out and don't see a network giving a deal if they aren't in. At some point, one of the 4 corners is going to say enough is enough and jump ship and then the dominoes fall.

I can promise you the B1G is not going to do anything right now because they have a big enough mess with scheduling as it is and can wait for all this to unfold and have two years to figure it out.

Bull

Colorado moving back still isn’t the linchpin you think it is. It’s obvious most of these teams would rather stick together then go to the B12. The 3 other four corners join the B12 when UO and uDub join the B1G.

 

[Deep Creek]

Top 10 (PAC12/Big12) Most Watched in 2022:
1. Oregon - 2.21M (12th nationally)
2. TCU - 2.20M (13th nationally)
3. Oklahoma state - 1.68M (24th nationally)
4. Baylor - 1.32M (29th nationally)
5. Kansas State - 1.23M (30th nationally)
6. Utah - 1.16M (33rd nationally)
7. Washington - 1.15M (34th nationally)
8. BYU - 997K (38th nationally)
9. Washington State - 907K (41st nationally)
10. Iowa State - 882K (42nd nationally)

Top 10 in 2021:
1. Oregon - 2.57M (10th nationally)
2. Oklahoma State - 1.58M (22nd nationally)
3. Iowa State - 1.22M (27th nationally)
4. Cincinnati - 1.22M (28th nationally)
5. Baylor - 1.16M (30th nationally)
6. Utah - 994K (37th nationally)
7. Washington - 985K (38th nationally)
8. West Virginia - 948K (40th nationally)
9. TCU - 907K (41st nationally)
10. BYU - 893K (42nd nationally)

Based on the last 2 seasons, it looks like Oregon followed by Oklahoma State.

And none of them are even coming close to that +4 million numbers the networks are willing to pay for.

 

[Deep Creek]

The above is not true.

If the PAC can't get a network deal equal to the B12 the chances of a Colorado go up substantially and once one team moves it will motivate others to do it as well. A big factor in getting a network deal is having a GOR in place and I don't see Oregon or Washington signing it without an out and don't see a network giving a deal if they aren't in. At some point, one of the 4 corners is going to say enough is enough and jump ship and then the dominoes fall.

I can promise you the B1G is not going to do anything right now because they have a big enough mess with scheduling as it is and can wait for all this to unfold and have two years to figure it out.

Do you really think Oregon and Washington are "that attractive"? Or any other school that isn't already in the B1G or SEC. There isn't one school out there outside of Notre Dame that moves the national viewer needle. AND, there are a lot of teams in the SEC and B1G that don't move it either. They are just enjoying the gravy train as members of the club.

 

[UbetterDUCK]

Do you really think Oregon and Washington are "that attractive"? Or any other school that isn't already in the B1G or SEC. There isn't one school out there outside of Notre Dame that moves the national viewer needle. AND, there are a lot of teams in the SEC and B1G that don't move it either. They are just enjoying the gravy train as members of the club.

So what you are saying there are only about 10 teams that move the needle?

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Bull

Colorado moving back still isn’t the linchpin you think it is. It’s obvious most of these teams would rather stick together then go to the B12. The 3 other four corners join the B12 when UO and uDub join the B1G.

You have to get a TV contract at some point in time. It can't go on forever. If all those people are out, and OU and UW aren't willing to sign a GOR, the other schools will scramble sooner rather than later to get something from the B12.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

So what you are saying there are only about 10 teams that move the needle?

Teams not in the SEC or B1G already, there are only a few:

- ND is obvious.
- Toss up with Oregon for the B1G, then Clemson, FSU and perhaps UNC.

Those are the only ones who can earn a full share.

 

[Wild Turkey]

Do you really think Oregon and Washington are "that attractive"? Or any other school that isn't already in the B1G or SEC. There isn't one school out there outside of Notre Dame that moves the national viewer needle. AND, there are a lot of teams in the SEC and B1G that don't move it either. They are just enjoying the gravy train as members of the club.

What has become apparent is the B1G has a serious travel issue and two more west coast teams help make that better. If the B1G can get them for 35mm a year then it’s a good deal for the B1G.

 

[Wild Turkey]

Teams not in the SEC or B1G already, there are only a few:

- ND is obvious.
- Toss up with Oregon for the B1G, then Clemson, FSU and perhaps UNC.

Those are the only ones who can earn a full share.

Oh you had UNC on your list.

Don’t think I missed that.

 

[ericd7633]

So what you are saying there are only about 10 teams that move the needle?

I'd say there are only 3 that truly do not matter who they are playing, Michigan, Ohio State and Bama. Everyone else is a product of who the opponent is.

 

[Wild Turkey]

Bull

Colorado moving back still isn’t the linchpin you think it is. It’s obvious most of these teams would rather stick together then go to the B12. The 3 other four corners join the B12 when UO and uDub join the B1G.

I think PAC teams are waiting it out because it’s the smart move for now. They’ve been told a contract is coming and they know what the Big12 offers so they need to show they’ve done due diligence to their schools.

I’m pretty sure they’ve also been told that UO and UW are going to sign a GOR. There are a lot of promises that have to be kept that may not be.

 

[Wild Turkey]

I'd say there are only 3 that truly do not matter who they are playing, Michigan, Ohio State and Bama. Everyone else is a product of who the opponent is.

ND pulls if they are anywhere close to decent.
Michigan pulls when they are good but let them suck and the numbers drop.

Rivalries, top teams, OOC and games with big stakes pull. I’m not sure anyone outside of ND would pull the same as an independent.

 

[ericd7633]

ND pulls if they are anywhere close to decent.
Michigan pulls when they are good but let them suck and the numbers drop.

Rivalries, top teams, OOC and games with big stakes pull. I’m not sure anyone outside of ND would pull the same as an independent.

Michigan wasn't very good in 2017 and still pulled in on avg 5.68 million viewers. Even bad games like against Purdue and Indiana pulled in over 4 million on average. ND doesn't pull in those types of numbers, even when we are good. For comparison our 2018 average viewership(the year we made the CFP) was only 3.68 million. We have too many games in the 2 and 3 million range.

 

[duckboy33]

And none of them are even coming close to that +4 million numbers the networks are willing to pay for.

Only 4 schools in the country averaged 4+ million last season

 

[duckboy33]

Bull

Colorado moving back still isn’t the linchpin you think it is. It’s obvious most of these teams would rather stick together then go to the B12. The 3 other four corners join the B12 when UO and uDub join the B1G.

Colorado is the most likely to jump because the Big 12 makes sense for them historically and geographically. It's going to be harder for any of the other 9 members to make the jump IMO. Not impossible, but harder.

 

[Thiefery]

Colorado is the most likely to jump because the Big 12 makes sense for them historically and geographically. It's going to be harder for any of the other 9 members to make the jump IMO. Not impossible, but harder.

lol funny how this was the same sense of reasoning over a decade ago for them to leave the Big12 to the Pac12.. (High number of Alumnus in CA, better geographical fit, Academics, etc)