PAC News

Thiefery said:
lol funny how this was the same sense of reasoning over a decade ago for them to leave the Big12 to the Pac12.. (High number of Alumnus in CA, better geographical fit, Academics, etc)
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Not really. It was more about the academics and the alumni that live in California. Geographically and historically they are more aligned with the Big 12 (although the Big 12 is starting to lose that regional identity).

They're going to have the lowest threshold to jump to the Big 12 because of that. It's going to be tougher to get Arizona to jump IMO.
 
duckboy33 said:
Colorado is the most likely to jump because the Big 12 makes sense for them historically and geographically. It's going to be harder for any of the other 9 members to make the jump IMO. Not impossible, but harder.
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Mileage wise, it looks like the Arizona schools are as close to most of the B12 members as Colorado is. Utah is just another 300 miles. I think all 4 of them make good geographic sense. But how much TV revenue would be split between a larger number of schools, now that they have UCF, Cinci, Houston, and BYU? And how is travel impacted with being in 4 time zones?

Honestly, that's not a great conference once TX and OU have left, even with adding the 4 Corners. Where is the line of diminishing returns for adding more schools in terms of stability/revenue?

One final thought: does BYU and Utah want to be in the same league?
 
Hu War Yu said:
Mileage wise, it looks like the Arizona schools are as close to most of the B12 members as Colorado is. Utah is just another 300 miles. I think all 4 of them make good geographic sense. But how much TV revenue would be split between a larger number of schools, now that they have UCF, Cinci, Houston, and BYU? And how is travel impacted with being in 4 time zones?

Honestly, that's not a great conference once TX and OU have left, even with adding the 4 Corners. Where is the line of diminishing returns for adding more schools in terms of stability/revenue?

One final thought: does BYU and Utah want to be in the same league?
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Good questions. I don't think the corner 4 really bring that much value to the Big 12 other than kneecapping the PAC 12 moving forward. Outside of Utah, none of them have really done anything of note in football over the last 20 years. But eliminating the PAC from competition eliminates one of the second tier conferences that the Big 12 would have to compete with moving forward.

As for Utah/BYU, I'm not sure what's real and what's just fans being fans online. But it seems like Utah much prefers the PAC 12 to the Big 12. I don't think Utah makes the jump unless there's no viable PAC 12 to play in.
 
duckboy33 said:
Good questions. I don't think the corner 4 really bring that much value to the Big 12 other than kneecapping the PAC 12 moving forward. Outside of Utah, none of them have really done anything of note in football over the last 20 years. But eliminating the PAC from competition eliminates one of the second tier conferences that the Big 12 would have to compete with moving forward.

As for Utah/BYU, I'm not sure what's real and what's just fans being fans online. But it seems like Utah much prefers the PAC 12 to the Big 12. I don't think Utah makes the jump unless there's no viable PAC 12 to play in.
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Yep, main point would be to hobble a competitor league, but might end up backfiring a few seasons down the road. I'm sure the lawyers and bean counters in the B12 are crunching all these figures.
 
Wild Turkey said:
Oh you had UNC on your list.

Don’t think I missed that.
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Not sure what you mean but I have always said that UNC was borderline. ND, FSU, and Clemson were obvious. UNC and Miami were the borderline cases. UVa, VaTech, NC State are always mentioned but aren't close.
 
duckboy33 said:
Only 4 schools in the country averaged 4+ million last season
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You don't have to average 4+ million ... as you state, only 4 did that. 4+ million games are the ones the move the needle and there aren't a lot of teams who can drive those types of eyeballs. Keep in mind there are those who can drive 4+ mil on their own, and those like Texas who have a brand that coupled with the other team will drive 4+ million.
 
duckboy33 said:
Not really. It was more about the academics and the alumni that live in California. Geographically and historically they are more aligned with the Big 12 (although the Big 12 is starting to lose that regional identity).

They're going to have the lowest threshold to jump to the Big 12 because of that. It's going to be tougher to get Arizona to jump IMO.
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again this was the same shit they were saying about the PAC move a decade before.. also mixed in with the guaranteed spot in a game of musical chairs statements

After the move CU really believe the move was going to boost the football program.. honestly I did too, and it never happened
 
ericd7633 said:
I'd say there are only 3 that truly do not matter who they are playing, Michigan, Ohio State and Bama. Everyone else is a product of who the opponent is.
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I agree with your top 3, but the next half dozen are more whether they are playing well. UGA, PSU, OU, UF ... they will solid numbers all the time, really good numbers when playing well. Pretty much everyone else depends on who they play.

Here are the numbers going back to 2015

The 2022 “4 million club”​

Here are all of the games that broke 4 million viewers this season:
  1. Michigan at Ohio State — 17.14M
  2. Tennessee at Georgia — 13.06M
  3. Alabama at Tennessee — 11.56M
  4. Alabama at Texas — 10.60M
  5. Notre Dame vs. Ohio State — 10.53M
  6. Alabama at Mississippi — 8.71M
  7. Ohio State at Penn State — 8.27M
  8. Alabama at LSU — 7.58M
  9. Florida State vs. LSU — 7.55M
  10. Texas A&M at Alabama — 7.15M
  11. Army vs. Navy — 6.94M
  12. Florida at Florida State — 6.71M
  13. Notre Dame at Southern Cal, 6.68M
  14. Ohio State at Maryland — 6.60M
  15. Penn State at Michigan — 6.45M
  16. Auburn at Alabama — 6.27M
  17. Oregon vs. Georgia — 6.20M
  18. Alabama at Arkansas — 5.83M
  19. Florida at Georgia — 5.62M
  20. Michigan State at Michigan — 5.58M
  21. Florida at Tennessee — 5.57M
  22. Illinois at Michigan — 5.47M
  23. TCU at Texas — 5.03M
  24. NC State at Clemson — 4.98M
  25. Tennessee at South Carolina — 4.87M
  26. Clemson at Georgia Tech — 4.86M
  27. Ohio State at Northwestern — 4.76M
  28. Syracuse at Clemson — 4.75M
  29. Wisconsin at Ohio State — 4.59M
  30. Southern Cal at UCLA — 4.53M
  31. Georgia at Kentucky — 4.48M
  32. Tennessee at Pittsburgh — 4.46M
  33. Texas at Oklahoma State — 4.46M
  34. Ohio State at Michigan State — 4.44M
  35. Nebraska vs. Northwestern — 4.42M
  36. Maryland at Michigan — 4.38M
  37. Iowa at Ohio State — 4.38M
  38. TCU at Baylor — 4.35M
  39. Iowa State at TCU — 4.34M
  40. Kentucky at Florida — 4.33M
  41. Auburn at Georgia — 4.24M
  42. Michigan at Iowa — 4.20M
  43. Penn State at Auburn — 4.05M
  44. Kentucky at Tennessee — 4.04M
  45. Michigan at Indiana — 4.01M
There were 39 teams that played in at least one game that cracked 4 million viewers:

8 — Ohio State

7 — Alabama, Michigan

6 — Tennessee

5 — Georgia

4 — Florida

3 — Auburn, Clemson, Kentucky, Penn State, TCU, Texas

2 — Florida State, Iowa, LSU, Maryland, Michigan State, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Southern Cal

1 — Arkansas, Army, Baylor, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa State, Mississippi, Navy, NC State, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UCLA, Wisconsin

Top 25 for 2021:

  1. Ohio State — 5.22M
  2. Michigan — 4.74M
  3. Alabama — 4.64M
  4. Penn State — 3.87M
  5. Georgia — 3.61M
  6. Oklahoma — 3.46M
  7. Auburn — 3.22M
  8. Michigan State — 2.89M
  9. Notre Dame — 2.84M
  10. Oregon — 2.57M
  11. Wisconsin — 2.41M
  12. Nebraska — 2.29M
  13. Texas — 2.26M
  14. Florida — 2.21M
  15. Arkansas — 2.03M
  16. LSU — 1.90M
  17. Texas A&M — 1.86M
  18. Mississippi — 1.81M
  19. Clemson — 1.74M
  20. Iowa — 1.64M
  21. Purdue — 1.63M
  22. Oklahoma State — 1.58M
  23. Tennessee — 1.51M
  24. Minnesota — 1.28M
  25. Florida State — 1.27M

The 2021 “4 million club”​

Here are all of the games that broke 4 million viewers this season:

  1. Ohio State at Michigan — 15.89M
  2. Alabama at Auburn — 10.37M
  3. Michigan at Michigan State — 9.29M
  4. Georgia at Clemson — 8.87M
  5. Alabama at Texas A&M — 8.33M
  6. Alabama at Florida — 7.86M
  7. Notre Dame at Florida State — 7.75M
  8. Oregon at Ohio State — 7.73M
  9. Auburn at Penn State — 7.61M
  10. Army vs. Navy — 7.57M
  11. Penn State at Ohio State — 7.05M
  12. Penn State at Iowa — 6.90M
  13. Oklahoma at Oklahoma State — 6.49M
  14. Kentucky at Georgia — 6.37M
  15. Ohio State at Minnesota — 6.30M
  16. Georgia at Florida — 6.12M
  17. Michigan at Penn State — 5.942M
  18. Oklahoma at Texas — 5.940M
  19. Georgia at Tennessee — 5.78M
  20. Alabama at Miami — 5.67M
  21. Arkansas at Alabama — 5.46M
  22. Penn State at Wisconsin — 5.41M
  23. Notre Dame at Wisconsin — 5.37M
  24. Ohio State at Nebraska — 5.33M
  25. Michigan State at Ohio State — 5.29M
  26. Wisconsin at Minnesota — 5.05M
  27. LSU at Alabama — 5.00M
  28. Oregon at Utah — 4.82M
  29. Mississippi at Alabama — 4.79M
  30. Washington at Michigan — 4.75M
  31. Purdue at Ohio State — 4.74M
  32. Tennessee at Alabama — 4.68M
  33. Michigan at Nebraska — 4.63M
  34. Georgia at Auburn — 4.58M
  35. Texas A&M at Colorado — 4.50M
  36. West Virginia at Oklahoma —4.50M
  37. Michigan State at Purdue — 4.40M
  38. Michigan at Wisconsin — 4.31M
  39. Nebraska at Oklahoma — 4.21M
  40. Texas A&M at Arkansas — 4.07M
  41. Indiana at Penn State — 4.00M
There were 34 teams that played in at least one game that cracked 4 million viewers 2021:

8— Alabama

7 — Ohio State

6 — Michigan, Penn State

5 — Georgia

4 — Oklahoma, Wisconsin

3 — Auburn, Michigan State, Nebraska, Texas A&M

2 — Arkansas, Florida, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Oregon, Purdue, Tennessee

1 — Army, Clemson, Colorado, Florida State, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, LSU, Miami, Mississippi, Navy, Oklahoma State, Texas, Utah, Washington, West Virginia

Top 25 for 2015-2019:
  1. Ohio State (5.19M)
  2. Alabama (5.09M)
  3. Michigan (4.18M)
  4. Notre Dame (3.61M)
  5. LSU (3.22M)
  6. Auburn (3.12M)
  7. Georgia (2.91M)
  8. Oklahoma (2.90M)
  9. Clemson (2.67M)
  10. Penn State (2.55M)
  11. Florida (2.46M)
  12. Wisconsin (2.27M)
  13. Texas (2.269M)
  14. Florida State (2.23M)
  15. Michigan State (2.20M)
  16. Southern Cal (1.98M)
  17. Texas A&M (1.851M)
  18. Tennessee (1.849M)
  19. Oklahoma State (1.64M)
  20. Mississippi (1.61M)
  21. Iowa (1.57M)
  22. Nebraska (1.51M)
  23. Miami (1.503M)
  24. TCU (1.495M)
  25. Stanford (1.43M)
 
Texas will def get the boost with the new SEC schedule next year. Outside of UT fans.. I don't expect much of the country to tune into us lollygagging into another loss vs okie st or playing a thriller vs Iowa St at home
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
You don't have to average 4+ million ... as you state, only 4 did that. 4+ million games are the ones the move the needle and there aren't a lot of teams who can drive those types of eyeballs. Keep in mind there are those who can drive 4+ mil on their own, and those like Texas who have a brand that coupled with the other team will drive 4+ million.
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Correct. That's why the networks are consolidating. Most values aren't static. It's very much dependent on their opponents, which is why the networks are trying to create more high profile matchups.
 
duckboy33 said:
Correct. That's why the networks are consolidating. Most values aren't static. It's very much dependent on their opponents, which is why the networks are trying to create more high profile matchups.
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Let's use teams like OU, TX, USC, FSU, and Clemson. When they play the best teams in the SEC and B1G, they will drive numbers even if they need the brand of the other teams. But, when they play the lower teams, they won't so much. Teams like UNC and UVa and VaTech that people love to talk about won't drive numbers even when they play the better teams ... they will get to 4+ million from time to time, but they don't add anything that other similarly situated teams couldn't also do.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
Not sure what you mean but I have always said that UNC was borderline. ND, FSU, and Clemson were obvious. UNC and Miami were the borderline cases. UVa, VaTech, NC State are always mentioned but aren't close.
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I've always had UNC on my list as a potential SEC add if the opportunity came up and you have chastised me for that.

From what I've heard Miami is a hard no because the SEC doesn't want 3 teams in Florida and FSU would get the 2nd slot. My guess is because Florida plays them anyway and doesn't have to play Miami but that's just a guess.

If the ACC goes bottom up in 2036 I see Clemson (assuming they don't go completely down the toilet), FSU and UNC as teams that would be added and they will have to pick one more team to balance them.

Who that 4th team would be will be interesting because I would imagine teams outside the ACC would also "apply" so who knows.
 
Wild Turkey said:
I've always had UNC on my list as a potential SEC add if the opportunity came up and you have chastised me for that.

From what I've heard Miami is a hard no because the SEC doesn't want 3 teams in Florida and FSU would get the 2nd slot. My guess is because Florida plays them anyway and doesn't have to play Miami but that's just a guess.

If the ACC goes bottom up in 2036 I see Clemson (assuming they don't go completely down the toilet), FSU and UNC as teams that would be added and they will have to pick one more team to balance them.

Who that 4th team would be will be interesting because I would imagine teams outside the ACC would also "apply" so who knows.
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UVA or VaTech?
 
Wild Turkey said:
I've always had UNC on my list as a potential SEC add if the opportunity came up and you have chastised me for that.

From what I've heard Miami is a hard no because the SEC doesn't want 3 teams in Florida and FSU would get the 2nd slot. My guess is because Florida plays them anyway and doesn't have to play Miami but that's just a guess.

If the ACC goes bottom up in 2036 I see Clemson (assuming they don't go completely down the toilet), FSU and UNC as teams that would be added and they will have to pick one more team to balance them.

Who that 4th team would be will be interesting because I would imagine teams outside the ACC would also "apply" so who knows.
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In the article I wrote for Rivals, I have UNC in if the expansion were to be to 20 or 22:

hooplanation.com

College Football Expansion - Who is Next and Why

I wrote this about a week ago and had it published at Rivals. It's been up for a while there so I wanted to share this with this group. A couple of things: 1. Don't @Me with tldr ... don't care. It's long ... 3200 words. That's on purpose. I spent time on it because this type of thing...
hooplanation.com hooplanation.com

SEC: will stay within their existing footprint, or states contiguous thereto.
22 Teams:
Clemson
FSU
Miami
UNC
Oklahoma State
One of Lousiville, Duke, UVa, or Kansas (that's my order of preference)

20 Teams:
Clemson
FSU
Miami
UNC
First team out: Oklahoma State

My position has always been that outside of ND, FSU, and Clemson, no other teams including UNC can earn a full share. But there are realities that say you wouldn't go to 18 or 19 ... 20 or 22 are the better numbers for scheduling. In that case, UNC makes sense sort of like UCLA made sense.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
Those two schools don't come close to earning their way in. They are terrible - small schools and fanbases, very few eyeballs.
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I really do think they would benefit the most in a change of conferences.. UVA baseball and basketball have been solid. The football program once upon a time was solid as well

VaTech football program had been much stronger, til Beamer left. I think joining the SEC would be a boost for them.. a lot of BiG schools are taking players from their state
 
Thiefery said:
I really do think they would benefit the most in a change of conferences.. UVA baseball and basketball have been solid. The football program once upon a time was solid as well

VaTech football program had been much stronger, til Beamer left. I think joining the SEC would be a boost for them.. a lot of BiG schools are taking players from their state
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Nah, it's about footbal,l not basketball.

72 SMU — 312K
73Toledo — 306K
74 East Carolina — 305K
75 Appalachian State — 298K
76 Virginia Tech — 264K
77 Marshall — 262K
78 Houston — 242K
79 Virginia — 237K
80 Fresno State — 220K
81 Ohio — 214K
82 Connecticut — 212K
83 San Diego State — 198K

When the company you keep includes Miami of Ohio, Toledo, and Fresno State, you aren't getting into the SEC.

Pathetic viewership, no chance of generating a 4+ million game, and no chance of a CFP share means you aren't worth shit.
 
UbetterDUCK said:
So what you are saying there are only about 10 teams that move the needle?
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To reach the magic +4 million “national” eyeballs and irrespective of the quality of their current season, yes. Too move the needle “enough”. May not even be that many.

And that’s not a knock on any schools/teams. Put Purdue and South Caolina types in any of the other three conferences, they won’t move the needle enough either.
 
duckboy33 said:
Only 4 schools in the country averaged 4+ million last season
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True.. and I didn’t set that number. It seems media negotiators have. And they are willing to accept lower viewer ratings for the lower conference teams just to get the 4+ million games.

Those schools can draw those numbers against the likes of Rutgers and Mizzou. Rutgers and Mizzou get to enjoy the fruits because of that.
 
Thiefery said:
UVA or VaTech?
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If I had to bet money I would say that UVA would choose the B1G due to AAU considerations but could be wrong otherwise they will be on the list and probably the leader.

I would put candidates as the following:

UVA - Comment above
ND - Highly unlikely they seem to have a strong aversion to the B1G for some reason but it would wreck their schedule to join the SEC.
VaTech - Honestly the only reason to do it would be to get in the state of Virginia and I'm not sure that is worth it.
Oklahoma State - This is a wildcard that no one thinks about but they have a big fanbase, cultural fit and competitive programs right now the question is will they be able to maintain them with reduced revenue until 2036?
Duke - I'm all alone on this one and know it but I love the idea of having Duke, UNC and KY in the same conference. Strategically if the P2 takes over the NCAA basketball tournament (which I think eventually happens) then it could make sense.
Kansas - Similar thinking as Duke but very long shot.

I think the 4th team could surprise us all like Missouri did. The argument will be none of them bring value but if you are landing 3 bigs then the SEC has the juice to bring in who they want to fill the fourth because they need to balance the league. Most likely UVA or VT but I don't love either of them.

What will be interesting is who does the B1G take? If they add UO and UW then their slots are filling up and you know they want ND so how many more teams can they add? They could be at 18 schools soon with down the road ND being 19 so how big do they go before it's a nightmare?
 
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