PAC News

[Hu War Yu]

From what I've heard Miami is a hard no because the SEC doesn't want 3 teams in Florida and FSU would get the 2nd slot. My guess is because Florida plays them anyway and doesn't have to play Miami but that's just a guess.

Also: Miami sucks

 

[OlyDuck]

You have to get a TV contract at some point in time. It can't go on forever. If all those people are out, and OU and UW aren't willing to sign a GOR, the other schools will scramble sooner rather than later to get something from the B12.

there has still never been 1 ounce of proof showing that UO (not OU) and UW arent willing to sign a GOR. only speculation.

 

[OlyDuck]

Mileage wise, it looks like the Arizona schools are as close to most of the B12 members as Colorado is. Utah is just another 300 miles. I think all 4 of them make good geographic sense. But how much TV revenue would be split between a larger number of schools, now that they have UCF, Cinci, Houston, and BYU? And how is travel impacted with being in 4 time zones?

Honestly, that's not a great conference once TX and OU have left, even with adding the 4 Corners. Where is the line of diminishing returns for adding more schools in terms of stability/revenue?

One final thought: does BYU and Utah want to be in the same league?

That would still only be 3 time zones.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

there has still never been 1 ounce of proof showing that UO (not OU) and UW arent willing to sign a GOR. only speculation.

They would be idiots to sign one, IMO.

 

[Hu War Yu]

That would still only be 3 time zones.

I forget which one is it that Arizona doesn't do: the one in the fall, or the one in the spring?

 

[duckboy33]

They would be idiots to sign one, IMO.

Maybe a short term one (2-3 years) but nothing that's going to keep them in the PAC long term. And I don't think the media partners want that short of a deal. That's what's preventing the PAC 12 deal from getting done IMO.

 

[Wild Turkey]

In the article I wrote for Rivals, I have UNC in if the expansion were to be to 20 or 22:

College Football Expansion - Who is Next and Why

I wrote this about a week ago and had it published at Rivals. It's been up for a while there so I wanted to share this with this group. A couple of things: 1. Don't @Me with tldr ... don't care. It's long ... 3200 words. That's on purpose. I spent time on it because this type of thing...

hooplanation.com

SEC: will stay within their existing footprint, or states contiguous thereto.
22 Teams:
Clemson
FSU
Miami
UNC
Oklahoma State
One of Lousiville, Duke, UVa, or Kansas (that's my order of preference)

20 Teams:
Clemson
FSU
Miami
UNC
First team out: Oklahoma State

My position has always been that outside of ND, FSU, and Clemson, no other teams including UNC can earn a full share. But there are realities that say you wouldn't go to 18 or 19 ... 20 or 22 are the better numbers for scheduling. In that case, UNC makes sense sort of like UCLA made sense.

I only disagree with you on two points:

1. Miami doesn't get an invite and I don't know the particulars but insiders have been saying for years it would never happen and the SEC won't take 3 schools from one state.

2. I think down the road Basketball will become a bigger factor than you think because at some point the P2 is going to kill off the NCAA and make a run at forming their own post-season tournament. Right now that tournament is worth 1 billion to the NCAA and that's too much revenue to ignore. If that becomes a true goal then properties like Duke and Kansas start bringing a lot more value to the table. I would not be surprised if this happens before 2036 because if the B1G, SEC, ACC and B12 formed a partnership then you have 90% of the money teams locked and the conferences could potentially split 250mm each.

Honestly, at some point, the P2 forms a super division and cuts everyone else out of the football playoff as well. This only happens if or when the PAC and ACC fold but those scenarios are seeming more and more likely.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I only disagree with you on two points:

1. Miami doesn't get an invite and I don't know the particulars but insiders have been saying for years it would never happen and the SEC won't take 3 schools from one state.

2. I think down the road Basketball will become a bigger factor than you think because at some point the P2 is going to kill off the NCAA and make a run at forming their own post-season tournament. Right now that tournament is worth 1 billion to the NCAA and that's too much revenue to ignore. If that becomes a true goal then properties like Duke and Kansas start bringing a lot more value to the table. I would not be surprised if this happens before 2036 because if the B1G, SEC, ACC and B12 formed a partnership then you have 90% of the money teams locked and the conferences could potentially split 250mm each.

Honestly, at some point, the P2 forms a super division and cuts everyone else out of the football playoff as well. This only happens if or when the PAC and ACC fold but those scenarios are seeming more and more likely.

First, as you know, I am of the mind that they won't expand just to expand. I'd have to see some economic models that show shrinking the number of teams playing CFB is a good thing, and that having a huge conference that inherently would have to be broken out into divisions makes you more money. I just can't see it, but there are people smarter than me, that's for sure. But most people just say that there are going to be superconferences because for some reason they think it would be cool.

Don't care about Miami ... they make some sense economically, but I don't see what they bring to the table. Terrible fanbase, off campus stadium, never even won an ACC championship. What you say makes sense from having too many Florida teams.

Can't agree on hoops. It just isn't profitable enough to make a difference.

Go here and see how little is made in hoops: Sportico’s Intercollegiate Finance Database

But, Yormark seems to be betting on basketball and he's way smarter than me.

 

[Wild Turkey]

First, as you know, I am of the mind that they won't expand just to expand. I'd have to see some economic models that show shrinking the number of teams playing CFB is a good thing, and that having a huge conference that inherently would have to be broken out into divisions makes you more money. I just can't see it, but there are people smarter than me, that's for sure. But most people just say that there are going to be superconferences because for some reason they think it would be cool.

Don't care about Miami ... they make some sense economically, but I don't see what they bring to the table. Terrible fanbase, off campus stadium, never even won an ACC championship. What you say makes sense from having too many Florida teams.

Can't agree on hoops. It just isn't profitable enough to make a difference.

Go here and see how little is made in hoops: Sportico’s Intercollegiate Finance Database

But, Yormark seems to be betting on basketball and he's way smarter than me.

On finances we disagree because I would argue there is still fruit on the tree and you believe we maxed. When the NFL gets 1.1 billion for Monday Night Football alone which is 65 million per game. Adding a team a 100 million like FSU and you get 12 games is a bargain. The money is there for named brands. Now if we are talking about the B1G adding Cal and Stanford that doesn’t work at all. However if you are talking about FSU, Clemson, UNC and some other lucky bastard then it makes sense. You start airing games like UGA vs Clemson, FSU vs Texas and even UNC vs Auburn and raring start climbing especially when other brands start fading.

You, I and the SEC are in agreement on Miami and it will never happen.

Basketball doesn’t move the needle right now but if the conferences take over March Madness that’s a billion extra dollars potentially split 3 to 4 ways. Everything starts making sense at that point. It just depends on what the long game plan is here and I’m betting it’s too much money for it not to eventually happen. The ACC and PAC really need to fold first for it to work like I laid it out but even if that doesn’t happen we talking less money but sizable.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

On finances we disagree because I would argue there is still fruit on the tree and you believe we maxed. When the NFL gets 1.1 billion for Monday Night Football alone which is 65 million per game. Adding a team a 100 million like FSU and you get 12 games is a bargain. The money is there for named brands. Now if we are talking about the B1G adding Cal and Stanford that doesn’t work at all. However if you are talking about FSU, Clemson, UNC and some other lucky bastard then it makes sense. You start airing games like UGA vs Clemson, FSU vs Texas and even UNC vs Auburn and raring start climbing especially when other brands start fading.

You, I and the SEC are in agreement on Miami and it will never happen.

Basketball doesn’t move the needle right now but if the conferences take over March Madness that’s a billion extra dollars potentially split 3 to 4 ways. Everything starts making sense at that point. It just depends on what the long game plan is here and I’m betting it’s too much money for it not to eventually happen. The ACC and PAC really need to fold first for it to work like I laid it out but even if that doesn’t happen we talking less money but sizable.

UNC v. Auburn ... no one would care outside of Auburn. UNC gets in because of round numbers, but because they can generate eyeballs. Maybe a little in Chapel Hill. No one says, "that football in Chapel Hill is must watch TV," and I live here and both sons have attended or are attending UNC.

SAT Question - wich one does not belong:
A. UGA v. Clemson
B. FSU v. Texas
C. Auburn v. UNC

Answer: C

 

[osubuckeye89]

Lol imagine Miami in the SEC. They've struggled mightily since joining the ACC to be competitive in that weak ass league. They'd be a sub .500 team regularly in the SEC.

 

[Thiefery]

Miami would be a better fit for the BiG.. who really needs another recruiting ground where it's other schools not named tosu can take advantage

 

[duckboy33]

 

[CoalTrain]

Miami would be a better fit for the BiG.. who really needs another recruiting ground where it's other schools not named tosu can take advantage

Agree 100%, in fact I’ll be shocked if the BIG doesn’t wind up with Miami as a member when all the music finally stops… at that point anyway.
BIG loves the big markets and they (Miami) are also good academically.

I see @WhosYourDawggy and @Wild Turkey points on Miami but at the same time the SEC would get into that market plus keep the BIG out of another big market after they cornered L.A. I mean , I’d be good getting FSU too but the SEC already has several Tallahassee types as is, not to mention already being in that area of Florida. I can’t help but think having the SEC in Miami would raise all boats when it was all said n done and the SEC fans may like a regular road trip to Miami but… I could be wrong.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Agree 100%, in fact I’ll be shocked if the BIG doesn’t wind up with Miami as a member when all the music finally stops… at that point anyway.
BIG loves the big markets and they (Miami) are also good academically.

I see @WhosYourDawggy and @Wild Turkey points on Miami but at the same time the SEC would get into that market plus keep the BIG out of another big market after they cornered L.A. I mean , I’d be good getting FSU too but the SEC already has several Tallahassee types as is, not to mention already being in that area of Florida. I can’t help but think having the SEC in Miami would raise all boats when it was all said n done and the SEC fans may like a regular road trip to Miami but… I could be wrong.

FSU is hugely more valuable than Miami. Those secondary factors you mention would mean something if what Miami had to offer regarding economics was something to talk about. But it isn't. They aren't going to sacrifice millions to try and protect South Florida.

 

[ralphiewvu]

Colorado is the most likely to jump because the Big 12 makes sense for them historically and geographically. It's going to be harder for any of the other 9 members to make the jump IMO. Not impossible, but harder.

Exactly what I think too. Colorado isn’t the lynchpin, ultimately UO and uDub are.

 

[ralphiewvu]

I think PAC teams are waiting it out because it’s the smart move for now. They’ve been told a contract is coming and they know what the Big12 offers so they need to show they’ve done due diligence to their schools.

I’m pretty sure they’ve also been told that UO and UW are going to sign a GOR. There are a lot of promises that have to be kept that may not be.

That’s exactly why I don’t think Colorado is the lynchpin because even if they leave, plug in SDSU and go. Hell, many would consider it an upgrade, soCal market, team that’s not utter shit in Football etc.

 

[ralphiewvu]

You have to get a TV contract at some point in time. It can't go on forever. If all those people are out, and OU and UW aren't willing to sign a GOR, the other schools will scramble sooner rather than later to get something from the B12.

Very true, but I think UO and uDub dont want a long GoR. Also are they really going to do unequal revenue sharing?

I’d also be interesting to see how low the number can get before a team like AZ bounces to the B12.

 

[ralphiewvu]

If I had to bet money I would say that UVA would choose the B1G due to AAU considerations but could be wrong otherwise they will be on the list and probably the leader.

I would put candidates as the following:

UVA - Comment above
ND - Highly unlikely they seem to have a strong aversion to the B1G for some reason but it would wreck their schedule to join the SEC.
VaTech - Honestly the only reason to do it would be to get in the state of Virginia and I'm not sure that is worth it.
Oklahoma State - This is a wildcard that no one thinks about but they have a big fanbase, cultural fit and competitive programs right now the question is will they be able to maintain them with reduced revenue until 2036?
Duke - I'm all alone on this one and know it but I love the idea of having Duke, UNC and KY in the same conference. Strategically if the P2 takes over the NCAA basketball tournament (which I think eventually happens) then it could make sense.
Kansas - Similar thinking as Duke but very long shot.

I think the 4th team could surprise us all like Missouri did. The argument will be none of them bring value but if you are landing 3 bigs then the SEC has the juice to bring in who they want to fill the fourth because they need to balance the league. Most likely UVA or VT but I don't love either of them.

What will be interesting is who does the B1G take? If they add UO and UW then their slots are filling up and you know they want ND so how many more teams can they add? They could be at 18 schools soon with down the road ND being 19 so how big do they go before it's a nightmare?

You seem to be missing someone, fella

 

[ralphiewvu]

Yep, main point would be to hobble a competitor league, but might end up backfiring a few seasons down the road. I'm sure the lawyers and bean counters in the B12 are crunching all these figures.

Honestly Hu, it’d be beyond stupid for the B12 to add any more G5’s at this moment. Looking back if the B12 knew what they know now I’m not sure they would have added 4. I believe 2 of Houston, UCF and Cincy likely wouldn’t be added.