Stanford, Cal, SMU have been extended offers to the ACC

[Red_Alert]

My thinking is (and it may well be wrong) that if their exit from the ACC is imminent anyway, maybe they let them leave early with a big buyout similar to the Texas/OU deal but instead of a lump sum and go, a pay a lump now (not as big as TX/OU) then several payments over the years to compensate other members of the ACC until the deal expires.

We're talking a half billion dollars through the life (13 more years) of the GOR.

$39.4 million X 13 = $512 million

TX/OU paid nearly double ($50 million each) the annual Big 12 payout just to get out one year early.

So a deal similar to TX/OU could approach a billion dollars per exiting team.

To top that off the GOR states the ACC can collect the media rights of any exiting teams paid by the SEC or Big 10. Therefore the billion dollars could be a conservative number.

Say FSU, Clemson, and UNC bolt.....
That's $3 billion to be dispersed to the remaining 11 ACC teams over the 13 years remaining on the GOR.
i.e. A $24.7 million annual pay raise for the 11 remaining ACC teams.

$39.4 million + $24.7 million (pay raise) = $64.1 million annual payout to the remaining ACC teams.

I'm sure they're saying "Yeah, get the fuck out" to FSU, Clemson, UNC.

I'm not going to guesstimate how much of that will go to the newbs Cal, Stanford, SMU. I'm just keeping it simple here. I believe SMU gets none of it for 9 years though.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

As long as the revenue gap is as large as it is, it is Power 2. Maybe not in performance, but definitely in who controls things.

Probably both over time. Until the new CFP money kicks in in 2026 the difference will be manageable but ungood. Once the CFP money kicks in in 2026 it's going to get ugly. There will be a $50-$60 million difference. The B1G and the SEC will control things with the fear that they could simply break off. I think they know that would not be good so they will do what is reasonable:

(1) decent base CFP money to the G6 conferences, plus 1 guaranteed spot in the CFP
(2) base money to all P4 conferences, but based on the number of teams in each conference
(2) the majority of money split by shares or units based on participation and wins - with the B1G and SEC getting 7-8 in each CFP, that means they will control about 66% of the revenue.

More money means better facilities, training, S&C, diet, recruiting budget, coaches salaries. For now, still can't spend it on NIL. If players get paid and there isn't some structure, that is where it will get really ugly.

 

[rfjeff9]

We're talking a half billion dollars through the life (13 more years) of the GOR.

$39.4 million X 13 = $512 million

TX/OU paid nearly double ($50 million each) the annual Big 12 payout just to get out one year early.

So a deal similar to TX/OU could approach a billion dollars per exiting team.

To top that off the GOR states the ACC can collect the media rights of any exiting teams paid by the SEC or Big 10. Therefore the billion dollars could be a conservative number.

Say FSU, Clemson, and UNC bolt.....
That's $3 billion to be dispersed to the remaining 11 ACC teams over the 13 years remaining on the GOR.
i.e. A $24.7 million annual pay raise for the 11 remaining ACC teams.

$39.4 million + $24.7 million (pay raise) = $64.1 million annual payout to the remaining ACC teams.

I'm sure they're saying "Yeah, get the fuck out" to FSU, Clemson, UNC.

I'm not going to guesstimate how much of that will go to the newbs Cal, Stanford, SMU. I'm just keeping it simple here. I believe SMU gets none of it for 9 years though.

It's for this reason I am more than willing to see them bail.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

This move makes sense once you've come to the realization that school are going to start leaving the ACC in the next couple of years. As McMurphy reported, if the ACC can remain above 15 schools, that prevents ESPN from negotiating their contract down. This means the rest of the ACC will continue to make money on par with the Big 12, even if they end up losing Florida State, Clemson and/or UNC.

As for who is going to leave the ACC over the next few years, just look at who voted no.

For the umpteenth time, teams can't leave the ACC in the next couple of years. The GOR is in the way, and there are no landing spots. Absolutely nothing happens until a few years after the 2026 CFP restructuring goes into place, and then they have to deal with the GOR. B1G renegotiates their contract for 2030 season, SEC for the 2034 season. Those are the dates that are important. At the earliest, you could see the B1G wanting to do something in the 2030 season. Even then there would be 6 years and about $300 million in cost for ACC schools.

So, no, no one is leaving the ACC over the next few years. The expansion made it even less likely ... just look at who voted yes.

 

[Deep Creek]

Probably both over time. Until the new CFP money kicks in in 2026 the difference will be manageable but ungood. Once the CFP money kicks in in 2026 it's going to get ugly. There will be a $50-$60 million difference. The B1G and the SEC will control things with the fear that they could simply break off. I think they know that would not be good so they will do what is reasonable:

(1) decent base CFP money to the G6 conferences, plus 1 guaranteed spot in the CFP
(2) base money to all P4 conferences, but based on the number of teams in each conference
(2) the majority of money split by shares or units based on participation and wins - with the B1G and SEC getting 7-8 in each CFP, that means they will control about 66% of the revenue.

More money means better facilities, training, S&C, diet, recruiting budget, coaches salaries. For now, still can't spend it on NIL. If players get paid and there isn't some structure, that is where it will get really ugly.

I think the biggest issue is the lower level P2 teams have enough money to pick off the top coaching talent at other schools....in the lower profile sports as much as football and hoops. Not many are going to stay at a Utah, TCU, etc if they have success.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

We're talking a half billion dollars through the life (13 more years) of the GOR.

$39.4 million X 13 = $512 million

TX/OU paid nearly double ($50 million each) the annual Big 12 payout just to get out one year early.

So a deal similar to TX/OU could approach a billion dollars per exiting team.

To top that off the GOR states the ACC can collect the media rights of any exiting teams paid by the SEC or Big 10. Therefore the billion dollars could be a conservative number.

Say FSU, Clemson, and UNC bolt.....
That's $3 billion to be dispersed to the remaining 11 ACC teams over the 13 years remaining on the GOR.
i.e. A $24.7 million annual pay raise for the 11 remaining ACC teams.

$39.4 million + $24.7 million (pay raise) = $64.1 million annual payout to the remaining ACC teams.

I'm sure they're saying "Yeah, get the fuck out" to FSU, Clemson, UNC.

I'm not going to guesstimate how much of that will go to the newbs Cal, Stanford, SMU. I'm just keeping it simple here. I believe SMU gets none of it for 9 years though.

Add another $120 million for the departure fee and you are at $632 million. This guy gets the math.

 

[Red_Alert]

Add another $120 million for the departure fee and you are at $632 million. This guy gets the math.

I could be wrong but I think the $120 million departure fee only applies to Notre Dame, since they aren't bound to the GOR.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I could be wrong but I think the $120 million departure fee only applies to Notre Dame, since they aren't bound to the GOR.

Could be, but there is a fee ... quick look and it might be closer to $52 million.

Found this when I was looking, LOL. This is what the Clemson President had to say in 2016 when they signed what is now looked at as a horrible deal:

The conference's grant of rights makes it financially untenable for a school to leave, guaranteeing in the 20 years of the deal that a school's media rights, including revenue, for all home games would remain with the ACC regardless of the school's affiliation.

"The ACC is a great conference, and this increases the national exposure, brings in additional revenue and offers greater opportunity for student-athletes," Clemson president Jim Clements said. "For us and the Florida States and others, it stabilizes the conference long term."

ESPN-backed ACC Network launches in 2019

The ACC, in partnership with ESPN, is launching its own conference network by August 2019.

www.espn.com