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I'm also high on SMU, even jumping up to a better conference. I can see UF being a loss, but they also obviously have their issues. I think VT could absolutely beat them, Louisville and FSU will definitely be favored, and even the trip out to Cal isn't a guaranteed W (they actually knocked off Ward and WSU last season so they obviously know him well).
End of the day, we always end up seeing Miami get the hype and then eventually lose to the teams that have a pulse and even several who don't. Also, regarding Ward, just remember the season Tyler Van Dyke had in 2021 before Cristobal got there and ruined him.
I blame that more on Gattis being a shitty OC. The system Ward will be running will be very similar to what he's run in his career. I think for sure they've got 8 wins. Split the remaining 4 and they are 10-2. With that said, they could still disappoint, and finish 8-4 or something around there.