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It seems crazy to want to fire a coach but not know who to bring in if plan A fails.
i think people focus too much on the downside. If you are convinced your current coach can not get your program to its ceiling does it matter if the next guy is a risk? What are you risking? 4 more years of mediocrity? More recruiting losses? Every hire is a risk for a program, odds are you will eventually get it right. Question is does it take 1 roll of the dice to fix the program or 5?