Poll Call your shot - 4th 1 seed edition

[Mr.Hockey]

I just don't see it I guess. I think they'll end up getting it but there's too many other resume builders out there for the other B10 teams still. I think if they beat OSU the odds increase exponentially though but even then if they lose in the semis and Iowa wins the tourney I wouldn't be feeling safe as an Illinois fan

Obviously they've given themselves a nice cushion though and a win over OSU pretty much makes it a 50/50 worst case for them

Committee takes conference tournies into consideration so much less than everyone expects every year.

And if Illinois gets that OSU win. Just don't think there is any path where Iowa or anyone else can get the wins to match them.

A first round blunder would be the only possibility.

 

[ericd7633]

Ya think? I'm not there yet especially if OSU or Iowa win out through the tourney. Clearly they've got a nice advantage though

Yeah. I think so. I think even if OSU or Iowa wins the B1G tournament, Illinois will still get it with just one win. Historically, the B1G tournament hasn't mattered that much when determining seeding on teams at the top of the bracket. Plus at that point Illinois I still think will have a better resume over the other two.

 

[rmilia1]

Yeah. I think so. I think even if OSU or Iowa wins the B1G tournament, Illinois will still get it with just one win. Historically, the B1G tournament hasn't mattered that much when determining seeding on teams at the top of the bracket. Plus at that point Illinois I still think will have a better resume over the other two.

Let's run through it

If Illinois beats OSU, wins a B10 tourney game then loses to Iowa AND Iowa wins out ( huge IF obviously)

Illinois is 21-7 , likely a top 5 NET) , 11-7 in Q1 games

Iowa is 23-7, likely top 5 NET, 10-6 in Q1 games

IF OSU bests Illinois then Illinois wins 1 B10 tourney game and OSU wins tourney

Illinois 20-8, likely top 6/7 NET, 10-8 in Q1 and OSU is 22-7, likely top 5 NET and 12-6 in Q1

Or Illinois loses to OSU and wins 1 B10 tourney game and Iowa wins the tourney . Illinois 20-8, likely top 5/6 in NET, 10-8 and Iowa 23-7, top 5 in NET and 10-6

Obviously these are estimations and other stuff is involved or could change but I really dont think Illinois is a lock in either 3 scenarios. In my opinion they obviously really help themselves by beating OSU. If that happens I think 1 win on the B10 tourney eliminates everyone other than an Iowa if they win out ( and even then I think it's still 50/50 )

A loss to OSU imo opens the door for teams if they win out and Illinois doesn't make the finals .

All that said there's too much ball left and now my brain hurts lol

 

[ericd7633]

Let's run through it

If Illinois beats OSU, wins a B10 tourney game then loses to Iowa AND Iowa wins out ( huge IF obviously)

Illinois is 21-7 , likely a top 5 NET) , 11-7 in Q1 games

Iowa is 23-7, likely top 5 NET, 10-6 in Q1 games

IF OSU bests Illinois then Illinois wins 1 B10 tourney game and OSU wins tourney

Illinois 20-8, likely top 6/7 NET, 10-8 in Q1 and OSU is 22-7, likely top 5 NET and 12-6 in Q1

Or Illinois loses to OSU and wins 1 B10 tourney game and Iowa wins the tourney . Illinois 20-8, likely top 5/6 in NET, 10-8 and Iowa 23-7, top 5 in NET and 10-6

Obviously these are estimations and other stuff is involved or could change but I really dont think Illinois is a lock in either 3 scenarios. In my opinion they obviously really help themselves by beating OSU. If that happens I think 1 win on the B10 tourney eliminates everyone other than an Iowa if they win out ( and even then I think it's still 50/50 )

A loss to OSU imo opens the door for teams if they win out and Illinois doesn't make the finals .

All that said there's too much ball left and now my brain hurts lol

You've definitely laid it out very well. I think it's close enough that they'll go with the team that had better regular season success(although very slim margins here). The committee, for whatever reason, just doesn't usually take into account the B1G tournament winner. 2019 MSU had a really strong case for a 1 seed and got a 2. Same thing with MSU in 2016 as well. It will be interesting to see it play out. But I think the gap is pretty big right now.

 

[Mr.Hockey]

You've definitely laid it out very well. I think it's close enough that they'll go with the team that had better regular season success(although very slim margins here). The committee, for whatever reason, just doesn't usually take into account the B1G tournament winner. 2019 MSU had a really strong case for a 1 seed and got a 2. Same thing with MSU in 2016 as well. It will be interesting to see it play out. But I think the gap is pretty big right now.

Yeah I said it above, conference tournies dont do much.

 

[rmilia1]

Bad loss for the Terps. Gotta give Collins credit in that NW has played hard all year

 

[Mistaken4193]

We won’t get that last 1 seed because we lost to WKU at home(which isn’t a bad team) but As a LONG LONG suffering Bama Basketball fan I am proud of this.

 

[SJ76]

Hell I don’t know. Let’s just get this party started and play ball

 

[ericd7633]

We won’t get that last 1 seed because we lost to WKU at home(which isn’t a bad team) but As a LONG LONG suffering Bama Basketball fan I am proud of this.

Bama's OOC is what's going to do them in as far as getting a 1 seed.

 

[Mistaken4193]

Bama's OOC is what's going to do them in as far as getting a 1 seed.

Yeah. It took that WKU loss to get us going though so it ended up being for the best. Also didn’t help Providence ended up being Shit and we couldn’t fucking hit an open shot to save our lives against Stanford and Clemson.

 

[Mr.Hockey]

Illinois basically got it.

Win Thursday just to make sure

 

[rmilia1]

Illinois basically got it.

Win Thursday just to make sure

Agreed .

 

[ericd7633]

It is locked up for Illinois.

 

[rmilia1]

Itll be interesting to see how the 2 seeds break down now . Even with their losses today I'd think OSU and WVU are still 2s with Nova losing. Just can't see Houston getting to the 2 with their resume

 

[ericd7633]

Itll be interesting to see how the 2 seeds break down now . Even with their losses today I'd think OSU and WVU are still 2s with Nova losing. Just can't see Houston getting to the 2 with their resume

It sucks for Iowa that, them being the #5 overall at this point is going to automatically get stuck with Gonzaga/Baylor because of procedures.

 

[rmilia1]

It sucks for Iowa that, them being the #5 overall at this point is going to automatically get stuck with Gonzaga/Baylor because of procedures.

Yeah but if you want to win a title you gotta beat those teams either way so it's not all bad. In fact if it's Baylor I prefer playing them on short turnaround as I think we are a tough team to scheme on 1 days notice

 

[ericd7633]

Yeah but if you want to win a title you gotta beat those teams either way so it's not all bad. In fact if it's Baylor I prefer playing them on short turnaround as I think we are a tough team to scheme on 1 days notice

I don't think Baylor is good matchup for Iowa given their guards they have. But I could be wrong about that. Lol.

 

[rmilia1]

I don't think Baylor is good matchup for Iowa given their guards they have. But I could be wrong about that. Lol.

I think they pose problems for us but we pose problems for them too.

 

[ralphiewvu]

Itll be interesting to see how the 2 seeds break down now . Even with their losses today I'd think OSU and WVU are still 2s with Nova losing. Just can't see Houston getting to the 2 with their resume

If WVU loses their first game in the B12 tourney they are likely a 4 seed. They need to win the B12 tourney (which won’t happen) to get a 2.

 

[Mr.Hockey]

I don't think Baylor is good matchup for Iowa given their guards they have. But I could be wrong about that. Lol.

Ha as I said in the Big10 thread. It think Baylor is the ideal match up.

I'd bet Iowa.

Im taking MIchigan or Gonzaga over Iowa. Illinois not sure.