Thee PAC 12, Big 10, and ACC (Alliance) are Dividing Up tOrphaned 8 As We Plorst.

[Red_Alert]

I will also say this about Big12 reputation. The Kansas State and Iowa State losses to Sunbelt teams last year did not do the league any favors.

College Football Scores Week 2, Big 12 Conference 2020 Regular Season - ESPN

Live scores for week 2 of the Big 12 Conference 2020 NCAAF Regular Season on ESPN. Includes box scores, video highlights, play breakdowns and updated odds.

www.espn.com

So we base all media rights contracts on last year as opposed to the last 50 years?

 

[Red_Alert]

Good question. All of the sudden those teams are now "unworthy" but they were "worthy" when Texas and OU were playing them.

It doesn't even take the mental gymnastics some here are playing does it?

 

[Volbound1700]

That I can agree with. However, those teams would still be viewed as G5 competition for the first few years. Similar to when TCU and Utah made the jump.

The orphans already have P5 status in the eyes of college football fans. Not top tier or even 2nd tier, but P5 none-the-less.
The transitions to PAC, Big 10, ACC would be de minimis in the eyes of the average viewer.

I don't disagree with anything in this post. In fact, the Pac12's reputation might actually be enhanced by adding Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. The issue is what do they bring when it comes to fan base and $$$. That is why they are longshots to make it in.

Keep in mind that Houston and SMU would have been P5 programs back in the Southwest Days, at one time the SEC had Georgia Tech, Tulane, and Sewanee as members, and the B1G had University of Chicago as a member. The key is once you lose P5 status, it is harder to get back to that level of play with regarding to coaching and recruiting (although not impossible as 1-2 G5 teams tend to have breakout seasons every year).

 

[Deep Creek]

Great points. I don't necessarily disagree but I present the following counter-arguments:

1. They would not be P5 grind once they stop getting their current paychecks because they would not be able to afford P5 level coaches and facilities

2. OU fans, especially, have been critical of the current Big12 schedule as not being on part, difficulty wise, as other leagues

I will say one thing about current Big12, once you get past OU and Texas, you don't have the road environments with 80-100k fans screaming at you like you see in the B1G and SEC. In the past, teams have struggled playing in Neyland Stadium, for example, when they were not used to it. 2006 Cal was a great example. That team was probably better than their performance at Neyland and more on par with Tennessee but the road atmosphere got to them. I am not sure that is universal though and sometimes road teams actually thrive and play better in hostile atmospheres depending on the players.

All of this is just speculation and you make solid points that, right now, some of these teams like Iowa State, TCU, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State are competitive from a P5 perspective.

Only 5 of the 14 meet that criteria in the B1G...and Wisconsin is just barely over at 80,321. In fact, the B1G has several stadiums in the 50,000s and one in the 40,000s. But they do have a couple in the 70,000s.

Let's be real here, a lot of schools aren't even filling up their stadiums to capacity unless a rival or a top brand are coming to town.

 

[Deep Creek]

Not really but there are G5 teams that would be competitive in other leagues as well such as Boise State, Cincinnati, and UCF.

Granted, I don't see any of the remaining 8 competing for a Conference Championship or Playoff appearance. The exception might be the Pac12 which has been down for 5-6 years. Pac12 is the brunt of a lot of jokes at the moment but I am not sure that trend continues. It just takes the right coaching and recruiting to get back to respectability. Oregon looks like they are on the rise.

Do you see ALL the current members of the other P5s competing for a Conference Championship or Playoff appearance?

Can you imagine a year that featured Illinois, Miss State, Boston College and Cal as the four teams in the CFP? Must see TV right there.

 

[Red_Alert]

Only 5 of the 14 meet that criteria in the B1G...and Wisconsin is just barely over at 80,321. In fact, the B1G has several stadiums in the 50,000s and one in the 40,000s. But they do have a couple in the 70,000s.

Let's be real here, a lot of schools aren't even filling up their stadiums to capacity unless a rival or a top brand are coming to town.

Yeah but 'mental gymnastics'.

 

[Volbound1700]

Only 5 of the 14 meet that criteria in the B1G...and Wisconsin is just barely over at 80,321. In fact, the B1G has several stadiums in the 50,000s and one in the 40,000s. But they do have a couple in the 70,000s.

Let's be real here, a lot of schools aren't even filling up their stadiums to capacity unless a rival or a top brand are coming to town.

Here is a list of B1G teams that have more fans, sale more merchandise, and have greater draws than any of the 8 remaining Big12 teams:

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Penn State
4. Nebraska
5. Michigan State
6. Wisconsin
7. Iowa

The only Big12 team that might be competitive with fanbase is West Virginia.

With the SEC, it is easier to list the have NOTs than the haves. The SEC has only the following have nots: Kentucky (although different story for basketball and they do fill football when good), Vanderbilt, Missouri (although they have had more attendance since joining SEC), and Mississippi State.

I would argue that Miss State fanbase is still pretty passionate as they do fill their stadium although it is small.

 

[Red_Alert]

Do you see ALL the current members of the other P5s competing for a Conference Championship or Playoff appearance?

Can you imagine a year that featured Illinois, Miss State, Boston College and Cal as the four teams in the CFP? Must see TV right there.

Dude.....You need to get onboard the low hanging fruit thought process.

 

[Red_Alert]

With the SEC, it is easier to list the have NOTs than the haves. The SEC has only the following have nots: Kentucky (although different story for basketball and they do fill football when good), Vanderbilt, Missouri (although they have had more attendance since joining SEC), and Mississippi State.

I would argue that Miss State fanbase is still pretty passionate as they do fill their stadium although it is small.

Get out of your bubble.

 

[Wild Turkey]

4 to PAC
2 to Big 10
2 to ACC?

Some are more obvious than others. i.e. The Big 10's got Iowa St and Kansas (AAU and regional)
ACC's got WVU (regional).
Your guess as to what 4 of the 5 the PAC goes with, which leaves one Odd Man Out. It's most likely one tejas school (Baylor, T Tech, TCU) being out of the PAC. K. State is adjacent to Colorado with a Big 8/12 history therefore likely in the PAC.

Who would that 'Odd Man Out' be and would the ACC even want them considering they've already got ND for baseball/basketball and for 5 games in football? Odd Man Out would be a poor regional fit to the ACC, but not much a poorer regional fit than WVU was to the Big 12.

The SEC news broke over a month ago. Zee papers from all 3 parties were signed, sealed, and delivered 3 weeks ago. They'd kept their plan super double (SCI level) secret for 7 months before the bomb got dropped. The SEC commissioner was even on the 4 member working group working the play-off expansion and never uttered a word. OU/TX also kept it in the upper echelons to prevent any leak.

That being said the PAC 12, Big 10, ACC commissioners and AD's are also keeping the split of the Orphan 8 super double secret. Do you really think they've been sitting on their hands while the rest of us morons run through 50 scenarios of "OMG G5" status on message boards? If so I've got a bridge to sell you.

The Orphan 8 were all P5 teams when playing each other and TX/OU in the Big 8/12. All of the sudden without TX/OU on their annual schedule They're NOT? LOL Give me a break. Every Orphan 8 was considered a tough enough grind for TX/OU to get BCS and CFP consideration. This has changed how? Go to the PAC they'll be playing USC, Washington. Go to the Big 10 they'll be playing tOSU, Wisconsin, go to the ACC they'll be playing Clemson. There's no fucking difference than what was the old Big 12. NONE!!!

The PAC 12, Big 10, ACC, and Orphan 8 will wait out TX/OU cutting their GOR checks (most likely early 2022) before the official division of the Orphan 7/8 is announced.
All parties not OU/TX/SEC would be idiots to commit to anything official on paper at this point. Let everyone leave with a $50+ million payday first.

I would like this to happen for the sake of the teams but I don’t necessarily see it happening.

1. Kansas and Iowa State to the B1G could very well happen based on the AAU reasons you listed. I don’t necessarily think that is the best move from a sports perspective but that isn’t how they measure such moves but the downside is it dilutes the brand.

 

[Deep Creek]

Here is a list of B1G teams that have more fans, sale more merchandise, and have greater draws than any of the 8 remaining Big12 teams:

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Penn State
4. Nebraska
5. Michigan State
6. Wisconsin
7. Iowa

The only Big12 team that might be competitive with fanbase is West Virginia.

With the SEC, it is easier to list the have NOTs than the haves. The SEC has only the following have nots: Kentucky (although different story for basketball and they do fill football when good), Vanderbilt, Missouri (although they have had more attendance since joining SEC), and Mississippi State.

I would argue that Miss State fanbase is still pretty passionate as they do fill their stadium although it is small.

Iowa State's fans are very loyal. They filled their stadium in many of those years they sucked.

The SEC's fans are definitely more passionate than any other conference. But, only an SEC can have a school with a smaller stadium but a passionate fan base? Get that shit out of here.

 

[Deep Creek]

Dude.....You need to get onboard the low hanging fruit thought process.

Nah, all the low life varmints gnaw on the low hanging stuff!

 

[Volbound1700]

Do you see ALL the current members of the other P5s competing for a Conference Championship or Playoff appearance?

Can you imagine a year that featured Illinois, Miss State, Boston College and Cal as the four teams in the CFP? Must see TV right there.

At the moment, Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and sometimes a Georgia/LSU type team are the only ones in the mix.

However, in the course of CFB, there have been a lot of other teams that have competing and won at a high-level. Will Alabama still be elite when Nick Saban retires? Will Clemson be elite when Dabo Sweeney leaves?

As I pointed out in another thread, even Tennessee, despite all of its issues, was a few plays away from being a playoff team in 2015.

Change 1-2 plays in the fourth quarter vs. Florida (who was saved by a Hail Mary pass), Oklahoma (we had a couple of dropped passes and even then it took a score in the last minute for OU to force OT), and Alabama, and Tennessee is in the playoff. That is NOT that we are uncompetitive, that is poor luck and bad coaching.

Mississippi State with Dak Prescott was very close to a playoff team. If Saban and Alabama hadn't been in the way, they would be there.

 

[outofyourmind]

Iowa State to the B1G

Only problem I see is that ISU's success is 'Coaching Reliant' rather than 'Program Reliant'
Iowa State is one step away from falling back into the abyss, and that is Matt Campbell taking another job.

So, for me, I just don't see the BIG taking them.

 

[Red_Alert]

There are 'FAR MORE' P5 teams that have little to no shot at making a 12 team play-off then there are that do.

Yet they're seen as P5 competition for the few that do have a legit shot.

"yEaH BuT nEbRaSkA SuCkS"
"yEaH, BuT dEeZ SeC nUts"

 

[Deep Creek]

I would like this to happen for the sake of the teams but I don’t necessarily see it happening.

1. Kansas and Iowa State to the B1G could very well happen based on the AAU reasons you listed. I don’t necessarily think that is the best move from a sports perspective but that isn’t how they measure such moves but the downside is it dilutes the brand.

True, but that didn't stop them when they asked Rutgers and Maryland to join the club.

 

[Deep Creek]

At the moment, Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and sometimes a Georgia/LSU type team are the only ones in the mix.

However, in the course of CFB, there have been a lot of other teams that have competing and won at a high-level. Will Alabama still be elite when Nick Saban retires? Will Clemson be elite when Dabo Sweeney leaves?

As I pointed out in another thread, even Tennessee, despite all of its issues, was a few plays away from being a playoff team in 2015.

Change 1-2 plays in the fourth quarter vs. Florida (who was saved by a Hail Mary pass), Oklahoma (we had a couple of dropped passes and even then it took a score in the last minute for OU to force OT), and Alabama, and Tennessee is in the playoff. That is NOT that we are uncompetitive, that is poor luck and bad coaching.

Mississippi State with Dak Prescott was very close to a playoff team. If Saban and Alabama hadn't been in the way, they would be there.

You didn't cover ALL the current P5 members. You cherry picked certain situations. Baylor and TCU were close or closer than Dak's bulldogs. Truth is the P5s only have a handful of teams each that have year in/year out chances of a CFP berth. Now, when it goes to 12, that hand gets bigger so the handful becomes more.

 

[Volbound1700]

Iowa State's fans are very loyal. They filled their stadium in many of those years they sucked.

The SEC's fans are definitely more passionate than any other conference. But, only an SEC can have a school with a smaller stadium but a passionate fan base? Get that shit out of here.

In the SEC, it is bigger. That is why NFL franchises like the Saints, Falcons, Bucs, Jaguars, etc. leave in the shadow of their SEC counter-parts in state. That is why the ACC, B1G, and Pac12 is having to make an ALLIANCE against the SEC right now. You can argue that the SEC isn't any better, especially in mid and bottom tier, than the other leagues but you have a hard time arguing fanbase. Only the B1G competes and even they have states that see NFL teams far stronger than College.

Look at a team like Arkansas. They are the only game in town for that state and they have a very large fan base despite their record.

Iowa State lives in the shadow of Iowa, that is their problem. I have been to Iowa several times and 2/3 of the CFB fans that I have met are Hawkeyes.

This is the REASON the Big12 doesn't have any suitors. If Iowa State have an SEC level fanbase, they would be a lock for a P5 league.

 

[Deep Creek]

There are 'FAR MORE' P5 teams that have little to no shot at making a 12 team play-off then there are that do.

Yet they're seen as P5 competition for the few that do have a legit shot.

"yEaH BuT nEbRaSkA SuCkS"
"yEaH, BuT dEeZ SeC nUts"

 

[Red_Alert]

Only problem I see is that ISU's success is 'Coaching Reliant' rather than 'Program Reliant'
Iowa State is one step away from falling back into the abyss, and that is Matt Campbell taking another job.

So, for me, I just don't see the BIG taking them.

They had some decent Dan McCarney teams.

They have invested in their facilities of late and do have a passionate fanbase. I thing that will be considered by the Big 10.

KU brings basketball. A no brainer for what is also a basketball conference.