ACC on life support, 7 members getting ready to pull the plug

[WhosYourDawggy]

Regions and states don’t matter?

This is what has pushed the BIG to expand for the last 30 years. A larger footprint.

Will be the same when they expand again. Whenever that happens to be.

I have no idea what Rutgers “earns” but I’m assuming it’s less than the three schools I assume would top their wish list.

Regions and states don't matter in 2023 and on. They did back in 2008-2012 when expansion was all about expanding the basic cable market. That market has shrunk by 50% or more and within the next 3-4 years will be 75% smaller than it was in 2012. That is why it doesn't matter any more. We have a number of threads here where we discussed this. For example, you might think getting USC was to get LA and Cali. That brough in $16 million a year, which is a rounding error compared to the TV dollars, and will be when compared to a CFP share starting in 2026.

What Rutgers delivers to the B1G today is irrelevant, as they are already in the B1G. Same with Vandy in the SEC. Those already in the club stay in the club even if they aren't big revenue drivers. Totally different calculus when you look at schools trying to get into the SEC and the B1G. They have to earn their way in. FWIW, Rutgers was the gold standard for expansion in 2008-2012 ... when the B1G picked up Rutgers it not only got increased cable fees for all of NJ, but also all of NY. But, that is not the economic model for CFB today.

Here's a thread that goes into a lot of detail about this:

College Football Expansion - Who is Next and Why

I wrote this about a week ago and had it published at Rivals. It's been up for a while there so I wanted to share this with this group. A couple of things: 1. Don't @Me with tldr ... don't care. It's long ... 3200 words. That's on purpose. I spent time on it because this type of thing...

hooplanation.com

 

[rfjeff9]

College-football-expansion-whats-next-power-5-conferences

 

[rfjeff9]

Regions and states don’t matter?

This is what has pushed the BIG to expand for the last 30 years. A larger footprint.

Will be the same when they expand again. Whenever that happens to be.

I have no idea what Rutgers “earns” but I’m assuming it’s less than the three schools I assume would top their wish list.

I don't care to go looking for it but I did see somewhere not long ago that Nebraska, Maryland and Rutgers ramped up over 6-7 years to a full share of payout and they never just raked in the money from day 1 like the other schools already had.

IDK if they are there yes, I'm guessing yes with new TV contracts amd such. I would imagine that this will hold for any new adds.

 

[ralphiewvu]

The SEC is not taking VaTech and NCSU.

Quick CFB economics:
- You have to be able to generate $100+ million to get into the B1G or the SEC. That's really hard to do.
- Basketball doesn't matter.
- What matters is viewership, especially 4 million plus games; CFP involvement (this will be very big as a share or more would be very valuable)
- The state you are in is not very valuable. Proof - getting LA, the second largest market in the US was only worth $16 million per year to the B1G. It's just not as relevant when the numbers are so large.

TV Viewership:

Rank	School and Avg Attendance	Conf	P5/G5
10	Clemson — 2.59M	ACC	P5
15	Florida State — 2.03M	ACC	P5
43	NC State — 881K	ACC	P5
46	North Carolina — 849K	ACC	P5
49	Georgia Tech — 837K	ACC	P5
59	Miami FL— 608K	ACC	P5
76	Virginia Tech — 264K	ACC	P5
79	Virginia — 237K	ACC	P5
91	Duke — 115.7K	ACC	P5

As you can see Clemson and FSU have decent viewership, but everyone else sucks. You mention VaTech, but they are 76th and 79th, worse than 8 G5 schools. Worse than 8 G5 schools - the SEC and the B1G won't have anything to do with those teams.

Well, what about CFP? Clemson and FSU obviously have NCs recently. Miami has been a while. None of the others have hardly sniffed what would be a 12 team CFP.

None are teams that get people excited, so they won't help by playing better teams.

Miami and UNC are marginal because they would have been in at least one 12 team CFP, but that's nothing to rely on.

The SEC is not giving teams full shares to teams who average less viewers than 8 G5 teams, and average users in the 250K range.

Source for conference revenues:

Power 5 Conference Payout Estimates | Navigate

Our team estimated the rise in average Power 5 conference payouts over the next 8 years. You can see from the chart above that each conference’s average payout is expected […]

nvgt.com

Dude you can put whatever graphs you want up, have what ever numbers. It’s not going to convince me the SEC is only ever going to expand to only 2 more. Especially when the B1G comes down sniffing around Tallahassee. Wether that be in 7 months, 7 years or 2036, they ain’t done.

 

[RubinRock]

Meh. Whatever. College sports just isn't what it once was. Pull the cord on it already.

 

[NinerSpartan]

I can't wait to cheer on my TAR HEELS in the Big Ten

 

[Deep Creek]

Need to get rid of all conferences. Its a waste

Football only conferences could help alleviate a lot of the geographic travel issues related to the other sports. No?

 

[NinerSpartan]

Meh. Whatever. College sports just isn't what it once was. Pull the cord on it already.

tbh, there not being an ACC tournament might be a game changer for me. My favorite sporting event since I was ten years old. Could definitely see this turning me off of college sports for good. We will see, though.

 

[CoalTrain]

UNC- SEC
Clemson- SEC
FSU- SEC
VT- SEC

Miami- BIG
GT- BIG
UVA- BIG
Notre Dame- BIG

NCState- Big12
Pitt- Big12
Louisville- Big12
Syracuse- Big12

Wake- AAC
BC- AAC
Duke- AAC

And there ya have it, done deal.

 

[RubinRock]

tbh, there not being an ACC tournament might be a game changer for me. My favorite sporting event since I was ten years old. Could definitely see this turning me off of college sports for good. We will see, though.

I won't say I'll turn off completely from college sports. I'll always watch Clemson. And maybe a game here or there that interests me. But those games already seem to be few and far between now.

Believe you said in the bball thread. What made college appealing was the variety. And the localized smaller conferences did that. If they are just going to put the big brands and better teams into one or two conferences, well thats already been done. And it has a better on field product, by far. Its called the NFL. I'll just stick to that.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Dude you can put whatever graphs you want up, have what ever numbers. It’s not going to convince me the SEC is only ever going to expand to only 2 more. Especially when the B1G comes down sniffing around Tallahassee. Wether that be in 7 months, 7 years or 2036, they ain’t done.

Why? Why would SEC schools take a multi-million dollar hit just to expand. If you can put up charts or graphs or whatever that shows that there is an economic, money reason for expanding, I'll agree with you. But they aren't adding NSCU or VaTech that average 250K viewers per game, just to say they've expanded.

I think we have all agreed here that at the end of the day it's always about money. So, show me the money. Show me how expanding makes money, or that the SEC says they don't care about money. I don't see that happening.

As for Tallahassee, we agree that FSU and Clemson probably make economic sense. But if the B1G starts sniffing around Charlottesville, or wherever the fuck VaTech is, the SEC will have a collective yawn.

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

Negotiation 101.

Make noise about leaving, then settle with a greater share of revenues.

1. They aren't getting out of the GOR.
2. There is nowhere to land. Neither the SEC nor the B1G want to deal with this now. Especially since the only two that can even come remotely close to paying their own way are FSU and Clemson.
3. UVa, VaTech, NCSU and even Miami aren't able to provide enough juice for the squeeze.

IDK, I think the B10 would take North Carolina and maybe FSU in a second to expand the footprint.

 

[Illustrious Potentate]

If there’s 20 team conferences coming, they need to be split into two conferences under the same commish and shared revenue.

I used to think nothing would turn me away from college football, but the mega conferences are turning me off.

Last year was the first year I watched more NFL than college.

And you could probably count the number of non UGA regular season games I watched on one hand(not counting mid week fun belt and maction)

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

IDK, I think the B10 would take North Carolina and maybe FSU in a second to expand the footprint.

I can see FSU from the B1G's perspective, assuming they get AAU. But why would FSU want the B1G? Do they really want to go play games in Illinois, Minn, Wisconsin? Once the ACC GOR runs, FSU and Clemson to the SEC makes sense. UNC is borderline from a $$$ perspective, but it does check most of the other boxes. The 4th team is where it gets a little crazy. Miami? I'd go OkSU to provide another western team. Not sure the $$$ make sense on that, but I am not sure there is another school that moves the needle.

 

[Red_Alert]

The SEC is not taking VaTech and NCSU.

Quick CFB economics:
- You have to be able to generate $100+ million to get into the B1G or the SEC. That's really hard to do.
- Basketball doesn't matter.
- What matters is viewership, especially 4 million plus games; CFP involvement (this will be very big as a share or more would be very valuable)
- The state you are in is not very valuable. Proof - getting LA, the second largest market in the US was only worth $16 million per year to the B1G. It's just not as relevant when the numbers are so large.

TV Viewership:

Rank	School and Avg Attendance	Conf	P5/G5
10	Clemson — 2.59M	ACC	P5
15	Florida State — 2.03M	ACC	P5
43	NC State — 881K	ACC	P5
46	North Carolina — 849K	ACC	P5
49	Georgia Tech — 837K	ACC	P5
59	Miami FL— 608K	ACC	P5
76	Virginia Tech — 264K	ACC	P5
79	Virginia — 237K	ACC	P5
91	Duke — 115.7K	ACC	P5

As you can see Clemson and FSU have decent viewership, but everyone else sucks. You mention VaTech, but they are 76th and 79th, worse than 8 G5 schools. Worse than 8 G5 schools - the SEC and the B1G won't have anything to do with those teams.

Well, what about CFP? Clemson and FSU obviously have NCs recently. Miami has been a while. None of the others have hardly sniffed what would be a 12 team CFP.

None are teams that get people excited, so they won't help by playing better teams.

Miami and UNC are marginal because they would have been in at least one 12 team CFP, but that's nothing to rely on.

The SEC is not giving teams full shares to teams who average less viewers than 8 G5 teams, and average users in the 250K range.

Source for conference revenues:

Power 5 Conference Payout Estimates | Navigate

Our team estimated the rise in average Power 5 conference payouts over the next 8 years. You can see from the chart above that each conference’s average payout is expected […]

nvgt.com

Those charts aren't accurate. Particularly regarding the Big 10 and Pac 12 payouts.

They were done in March 2022 knowing that tejas and Oklahoma were going to be joining the SEC. They were done without the knowledge that USC/UCLA would be going to the Big 10.

Therefore the Big 10 payouts will be higher than projected, and the PAC 12 payouts will be lower than projected.

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

I can see FSU from the B1G's perspective, assuming they get AAU. But why would FSU want the B1G? Do they really want to go play games in Illinois, Minn, Wisconsin? Once the ACC GOR runs, FSU and Clemson to the SEC makes sense. UNC is borderline from a $$$ perspective, but it does check most of the other boxes. The 4th team is where it gets a little crazy. Miami? I'd go OkSU to provide another western team. Not sure the $$$ make sense on that, but I am not sure there is another school that moves the needle.

Would USC and UCLA really want to go play B10 teams? Seems like they did. I think the SEC would go out and nab Clemson first. Maybe try and get FSU but I could also see them going after Miami as well. UNC the B10 would want for the academics. I think these dominoes are going to happen in even numbers (like we've seen). Could also be that if the ACC starts going the SEC or the B10 starts taking 1 from the ACC and 1 from the remaining Pac12.

 

[rfjeff9]

Would USC and UCLA really want to go play B10 teams? Seems like they did. I think the SEC would go out and nab Clemson first. Maybe try and get FSU but I could also see them going after Miami as well. UNC the B10 would want for the academics. I think these dominoes are going to happen in even numbers (like we've seen). Could also be that if the ACC starts going the SEC or the B10 starts taking 1 from the ACC and 1 from the remaining Pac12.

B1G is not adding any non-AAU school not named Notre Dame. Compared to the AAU annual research grants , the FOX payout per school as well as the money that each school might bring in athletics is small potatoes. The B1G has made it quite clear that this is a sticking point as research sharing amongst the member schools is highly desirable.

Need to stop thinking that B1G is all about the football money a school can bring like the SEC. It's a bit deeper towards the academics and the academic power a school can bring. Athletics and athletic money figures into it, but a mid tier athletic dollar figure isn't a killer, like maybe a UVA or GT (yes, I said it @WhosYourDawggy ).

I balk at saying adding 4 mid tier money programs is not an issue, as that's a step back, but 3 better names and 1 small one might tip the vote. Just depends on which ones and location will also figure in.

But unless Clemson and FSU get AAU, they aren't even in the discussion.

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

B1G is not adding any non-AAU school not named Notre Dame. Compared to the AAU annual research grants , the FOX payout per school as well as the money that each school might bring in athletics is small potatoes. The B1G has made it quite clear that this is a sticking point as research sharing amongst the member schools is highly desirable.

Need to stop thinking that B1G is all about the football money a school can bring like the SEC. It's a bit deeper towards the academics and the academic power a school can bring. Athletics and athletic money figures into it, but a mid tier athletic budget isn't a killer, like maybe a UVA or GT (yes, I said it).

I balk at saying adding 4 mid tier money programs is not an issue, as that's a step back, but 3 big names amd 1 small one might tip the vote. Just depends on which ones and location will also figure in.

But unless Clemson and FSU get AAU, they aren't even in the discussion.

There's a lot of things the B10 has given up on during expansion and changing CFB that I never thought I'd see. So I don't think AAU is as big of a thing as it once was. Can you imagine 10 years ago suggesting USC, a pillar in the Pac12, would be joining the B10?

 

[rfjeff9]

There's a lot of things the B10 has given up on during expansion and changing CFB that I never thought I'd see. So I don't think AAU is as big of a thing as it once was. Can you imagine 10 years ago suggesting USC, a pillar in the Pac12, would be joining the B10?

I see B1G sprawling out a bit more but don't know which direction. The crickets heard from them as Oregon amd Washington were looking for a seat at the table makes me think they are done until ACC teams figure out their GOR or it runs out.

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

I see B1G sprawling out a bit more but don't know which direction. The crickets heard from them as Oregon amd Washington were looking for a seat at the table makes me think they are done until ACC teams figure out their GOR or it runs out.

Yeah, they clearly want the ACC to implode. They'll probably take a swipe at ND and UNC, but they probably also want to expand south if they can because of the talent pool down south. And being able to advertise the B10 in, say, Florida.