Arizona State pulling scholarship offers

[Deep Creek]

OL is a whole different can or worms

I've always heard that and I can see it. Some of those highly rated OLs probably grew and hit their ceilings early. Not as much meat on the bone left to develop. And their "inner mentality" may not have survived the reality of "Crap. The guys are just as big, strong and fast as I am at this level."

 

[duckboy33]

Sure there are. Many make it. But, on balance, odds favor the 4*s and 5*s. Someone showed the percentage of each category making it to the NFL. Those rating groups don't bat 1.000 but I'd be most of the 4*s and 5*s that don't make it are because of poor development and/or character issues.

It's hard to take people seriously when they want to point at a few examples to disprove the obvious trend.

 

[Thiefery]

It's hard to take people seriously when they want to point at a few examples to disprove the obvious trend.

Obvious trend u say? Why don't you look up the OT composite 2016 class? The reason why I didn't was because 4/5 players are playing this season in college.. the number 1 overall OT Greg Little was a second rd pick in the '19 draft.. OL recruiting is the hardest position to recruit.. There are no trends other than it's a crap shoot. Funny part is that Saban seems to find them consistently

 

[Thiefery]

I've always heard that and I can see it. Some of those highly rated OLs probably grew and hit their ceilings early. Not as much meat on the bone left to develop. And their "inner mentality" may not have survived the reality of "Crap. The guys are just as big, strong and fast as I am at this level."

Yeah I'm not sure what exactly what the 5 star criteria for OTs are.. that said I want Tommy Brockermeyer to come back home.. I know he's the real deal despite a shoulder injury, because Saban was all over him for a long time and that guy knows what a 5 star OT looks like.

 

[duckboy33]

Obvious trend u say? Why don't you look up the OT composite 2016 class? The reason why I didn't was because 4/5 players are playing this season in college.. the number 1 overall OT Greg Little was a second rd pick in the '19 draft.. OL recruiting is the hardest position to recruit.. There are no trends other than it's a crap shoot. Funny part is that Saban seems to find them consistently

Look at the 2021 NFL Mock Draft for example.

There are 7 offensive lineman projected to be first round picks.

3 of them were 5 stars.
2 of them were 4 stars (with one being very close to a 5 star)
2 of them were 3 stars.

Now remember that the vast majority of lineman recruits were 3 stars. Again, you found a few exceptions to the rule. The trend is obvious to anyone who seriously follows this and knows what they are talking about.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Sure there are. Many make it. But, on balance, odds favor the 4*s and 5*s. Someone showed the percentage of each category making it to the NFL. Those rating groups don't bat 1.000 but I'd be most of the 4*s and 5*s that don't make it are because of poor development and/or character issues.

I am a stars guy ... stars absolutely matter. It's jimmies and joes v. xs and os. If you have the talent, it's easier to scheme the xs and os.

I've seen those stats ... 4* and 5* get to the NFL at a percentage that is vastly greater than 3*. Hell there are only about 32 5* each year, and about 250 4*. There are at least 1000-2000 3* depending on the service you are looking at. 5* and 4* doesn't mean you will make it, but you have a way better chance.

 

[Thiefery]

Look at the 2021 NFL Mock Draft for example.

There are 7 offensive lineman projected to be first round picks.

3 of them were 5 stars.
2 of them were 4 stars (with one being very close to a 5 star)
2 of them were 3 stars.

Now remember that the vast majority of lineman recruits were 3 stars. Again, you found a few exceptions to the rule. The trend is obvious to anyone who seriously follows this and knows what they are talking about.

You are going by a Mock draft.. I was going by the actual rankings from classes in 2015/2016 with only one for sure being a day 2 pick. Granted I'm not sure how the other 4 players will end up this draft from the '16 cycle since they are still playing. But I'll look into the Mocks

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

OL is a whole different can or worms

I mostly agree with this. You are better off starting with 4* and 5* OL ... again, your margin for error is much better. But, there just aren't that many of them because the world only has so many nimble, flexible, quick 6'6" 330 pound high school seniors. OL coaches make their bones on how well they can evaluate the 6'"2 - 6'6" 280- 330 pound high school seniors that aren't nimble, flexible, quick but might grow and then get better at those things.

UGA has probably had the best OL recruiting over the past 5 years, including commitments from this year:
- 5* - 7
- 4* - 9 (most very high 4*, just off 5* level)
- 3* - 6 or more

Two of our starting OL right now were 3*. We had 2 OT drafted in the 1st round this year, 1 OG in the 3rd. 4* went the highest, 5* next, then the 3*.

Why I am a stars guy ... if you can get the higher rated players, you take the 3* as projects and hope they work out. But if your best are 3* to being with, you are hoping that they work out or you are screwed.

DL is actually very similar.

 

[Thiefery]

View attachment 7620
This is the 2015 247 composite of OL
Ivey the #1 ranked OT was an undrafted free agent
Okeke #2 ranked OT was an undrafted FA
Hyatt #3 ranked OT was an undrafted FA
Sutherland #4 ranked OT was an undrafted FA
Bello #5 ranked OT was undrafted and doesn't have any NFL stats at all

OL is another beast when it comes to recruiting.

I made the mistake of only checking out the OTs
The top OG that class was Chuma Edoga who was drafted in the 3rd Rd
#2 Maea Teuhema went undrafted
#3 Javon Patterson was a 7th rd pick
#4 Lestor Cotton signed as an UDFA
#5 Richie Pitibon transferred to IL.. no info, not in NFL

As far as the centers only one of the top 5 was signed as an UDFA (Patrick Vahe) One is still playing (BYU), the other 3 didn't get drafted, no NFL stats or info.
If I have time I'll take a look at the 2016 class.. but for 2015.. out of 15 players 2 were actually drafted, 6 were signed as UDFAs

 

[Deep Creek]

I am a stars guy ... stars absolutely matter. It's jimmies and joes v. xs and os. If you have the talent, it's easier to scheme the xs and os.

I've seen those stats ... 4* and 5* get to the NFL at a percentage that is vastly greater than 3*. Hell there are only about 32 5* each year, and about 250 4*. There are at least 1000-2000 3* depending on the service you are looking at. 5* and 4* doesn't mean you will make it, but you have a way better chance.

Talent can overcome a world of coaching sins. Lesser talent has to be closer to perfect.

 

[duckboy33]

You are going by a Mock draft.. I was going by the actual rankings from classes in 2015/2016 with only one for sure being a day 2 pick. Granted I'm not sure how the other 4 players will end up this draft from the '16 cycle since they are still playing. But I'll look into the Mocks

I'm looking at mocks because those are who experts considere the top lineman in college football right now. That vast majority were 4/5 stars. That's despite there being way more 3 star recruits. If stars didn't matter, there should be way more 3 star lineman projected in the first round.

Let's look at the 2020 Draft. There were 7 first round picks that played Offensive lineman. 6 of them were 4 or 5 star recruits. The one 3 star was nearly rated as a 4 star. You see the exact same thing. It's true that not every 4/5 star works out, everyone understands that. We also understand that 3 stars can go on to be great college and professional players. But when you look at the obvious trend, 4 and 5 stars have a much better chance of making it. By far.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I'm looking at mocks because those are who experts considere the top lineman in college football right now. That vast majority were 4/5 stars. That's despite there being way more 3 star recruits. If stars didn't matter, there should be way more 3 star lineman projected in the first round.

Let's look at the 2020 Draft. There were 7 first round picks that played Offensive lineman. 6 of them were 4 or 5 star recruits. The one 3 star was nearly rated as a 4 star. You see the exact same thing. It's true that not every 4/5 star works out, everyone understands that. We also understand that 3 stars can go on to be great college and professional players. But when you look at the obvious trend, 4 and 5 stars have a much better chance of making it. By far.

Agreed, and honestly, this isn't an arguable point. I've seen the numbers run and it's an incredible difference, all due to the size of the denominator. I am going to make up some numbers to prove this:

Let's say there are:
32 5*
350 4*
2000 3*
This is close to accurate on 247.

Total draft - 224 players (7 * 32)

If 20 5* get drafted, that's a 62% draft rate.
If 125 4* get drafted, that's a 35% draft rate.
If 79 3* get drafted, that' a 3% draft rate.

Interestingly, if 16 5* got drafted, 58 4* got drafted, and the rest of the draft was 3*, 150 players, the numbers would be:
50%, 16%, 7.5% - in this hypothetical, we have way more 3* than 5* and 4*, yet you have a much better chance to get drafted if you are a 5* or 4*, because the pool of those players is so much smaller.

This is simple math based on the larger numbers of 3* and 4*.

 

[duckboy33]

Agreed, and honestly, this isn't an arguable point. I've seen the numbers run and it's an incredible difference, all due to the size of the denominator. I am going to make up some numbers to prove this:

Let's say there are:
32 5*
350 4*
2000 3*
This is close to accurate on 247.

Total draft - 224 players (7 * 32)

If 20 5* get drafted, that's a 62% draft rate.
If 125 4* get drafted, that's a 35% draft rate.
If 79 3* get drafted, that' a 3% draft rate.

Interestingly, if 16 5* got drafted, 58 4* got drafted, and the rest of the draft was 3*, 150 players, the numbers would be:
50%, 16%, 7.5% - in this hypothetical, we have way more 3* than 5* and 4*, yet you have a much better chance to get drafted if you are a 5* or 4*, because the pool of those players is so much smaller.

This is simple math based on the larger numbers of 3* and 4*.

I know people have run the numbers before and it's not even close. I'd be interested to see the numbers run on the QB position. I feel like that's the toughest position to evaluate but I could be wrong. I haven't done the research on that.

 

[Thiefery]

I'm looking at mocks because those are who experts considere the top lineman in college football right now. That vast majority were 4/5 stars. That's despite there being way more 3 star recruits. If stars didn't matter, there should be way more 3 star lineman projected in the first round.

Let's look at the 2020 Draft. There were 7 first round picks that played Offensive lineman. 6 of them were 4 or 5 star recruits. The one 3 star was nearly rated as a 4 star. You see the exact same thing. It's true that not every 4/5 star works out, everyone understands that. We also understand that 3 stars can go on to be great college and professional players. But when you look at the obvious trend, 4 and 5 stars have a much better chance of making it. By far.

the 2020 draft seems like an anomaly compared to the other classes I have been looking at in '15 and '16.
I already broke down 2015.. 2016 top 10 OTs 1 drafted, 1 is in the CFL, 8 others are still playing this season (none look like actual NFL players from the bios..injuries, transfers, etc)

Now the 2017 class was STACKED.. I just went through the top 10 OT, 4 are in the NFL already, 1 opted out of FIU to prepare for the 21 draft, 1 has transferred to Sam Houston St. Now 4 others are still playing but Walker Little is looked to be a day 1, day 2 pick, Leatherwood at Bama should be the same thing. Not sure on Sarrell.. I know he's been playing early but I think he may be a mid day, day 3 pick. The last is Austin Deculus at LSU..the lone returning starting OL player from last seasons championship team.

Interesting that there were 33 4 or 5 star rated OTs in '17.. the last, Wirfs was drafted this past April in the 1st rd. This had to be one of the deepest OT class in years. I haven't even looked at the OG/OC rankings yet.

Now back to the 3 star kids ASU dropped.. Everyone should take the ratings for this class with a grain of salt. There were very limited camps this past spring and summer. Not all 7 on 7 leagues played. Recruiting sites were just elevating and dropping kids based on offers... There was a kid in West Texas (Tate Williams) that wasn't even ranked, Baylor offered and he committed.. within 2 weeks he is a 3 star and close to getting his 4th star..all before his sr season started. He may be deserving of it when it's all said and done.. but how do you move a kid that was unranked, and all of the sudden got an offer from a school where he committed immediately? Maybe they dug up old tape? who knows.

 

[Deep Creek]

I know people have run the numbers before and it's not even close. I'd be interested to see the numbers run on the QB position. I feel like that's the toughest position to evaluate but I could be wrong. I haven't done the research on that.

I can't recall the show, but one of them had an interesting piece on the NFL QB position lately. They took the QB starters for last years playoffs and where they "came from" for lack of a better term. For the most part, they didn't play at the "biggies" sans a couple. I'd say Michigan and Clem would be considered "biggies" from this list.

And if you go by conference "perception" it really screws things up. Image wise the PAC 12 and Big 12 are supposedly QB conferences and the B1G isn't. But, depending on who gets credit for Wilson, the B1G had 4 of the 12 and the PAC/Big 12 only had one each. ACC had two and the SEC one...although Tannehill's whole career was in the Big 12. Hell, I think he played WR until his junior year.

Seattle -NC State/Wisconsin
Philadelphia - North Dakota State
Minnesota - Michigan State
New Orleans - Purdue
Tennessee - Texas A&M
New England - Michigan
Buffalo - Wyoming
Houston - Clemson
Green Bay - Cal
San Francisco - Eastern Illinois
Baltimore - Louisville
Kansas City - Texas Tech

 

[Thiefery]

I know people have run the numbers before and it's not even close. I'd be interested to see the numbers run on the QB position. I feel like that's the toughest position to evaluate but I could be wrong. I haven't done the research on that.

I still think it's the OL that's the toughest.. we'll see if the rankings of '17 start the trend and '18, '19, '20 will follow it. As far as QBs go, I don't think it's that difficult but again I follow Texas HSFB and there are always a good crop of QBs that are coming out of the state.

 

[Thiefery]

I can't recall the show, but one of them had an interesting piece on the NFL QB position lately. They took the QB starters for last years playoffs and where they "came from" for lack of a better term. For the most part, they didn't play at the "biggies" sans a couple. I'd say Michigan and Clem would be considered "biggies" from this list.

And if you go by conference "perception" it really screws things up. Image wise the PAC 12 and Big 12 are supposedly QB conferences and the B1G isn't. But, depending on who gets credit for Wilson, the B1G had 4 of the 12 and the PAC/Big 12 only had one each. ACC had two and the SEC one...although Tannehill's whole career was in the Big 12. Hell, I think he played WR until his junior year.

Seattle -NC State/Wisconsin
Philadelphia - North Dakota State
Minnesota - Michigan State
New Orleans - Purdue
Tennessee - Texas A&M
New England - Michigan
Buffalo - Wyoming
Houston - Clemson
Green Bay - Cal
San Francisco - Eastern Illinois
Baltimore - Louisville
Kansas City - Texas Tech

Thing is, with the camps and 7 on 7 tournaments going on.. I think the elite QBs are already established.. I think there is a good 2nd tier of QBs that are terrific CFB QBs but are just not built for the NFL.
2015 class had Rosen the #1 QB who got drafted.. #3 Kyler Murray went first overall 2 years ago. Stidham, Francois, Browning and Locke all have/had a shot in the NFL. Darnold was the 12th ranked QB and some guy name Burrow came in at #19.

2015 QBs fared much better than the 2015 OL class for sure. Will there be times where a Baker or Mahomes slips through? Yes, however I think Pat gets spotted much quicker in the 7 on 7 circuits of today.

 

[duckboy33]

the 2020 draft seems like an anomaly compared to the other classes I have been looking at in '15 and '16.
I already broke down 2015.. 2016 top 10 OTs 1 drafted, 1 is in the CFL, 8 others are still playing this season (none look like actual NFL players from the bios..injuries, transfers, etc)

Now the 2017 class was STACKED.. I just went through the top 10 OT, 4 are in the NFL already, 1 opted out of FIU to prepare for the 21 draft, 1 has transferred to Sam Houston St. Now 4 others are still playing but Walker Little is looked to be a day 1, day 2 pick, Leatherwood at Bama should be the same thing. Not sure on Sarrell.. I know he's been playing early but I think he may be a mid day, day 3 pick. The last is Austin Deculus at LSU..the lone returning starting OL player from last seasons championship team.

Interesting that there were 33 4 or 5 star rated OTs in '17.. the last, Wirfs was drafted this past April in the 1st rd. This had to be one of the deepest OT class in years. I haven't even looked at the OG/OC rankings yet.

Now back to the 3 star kids ASU dropped.. Everyone should take the ratings for this class with a grain of salt. There were very limited camps this past spring and summer. Not all 7 on 7 leagues played. Recruiting sites were just elevating and dropping kids based on offers... There was a kid in West Texas (Tate Williams) that wasn't even ranked, Baylor offered and he committed.. within 2 weeks he is a 3 star and close to getting his 4th star..all before his sr season started. He may be deserving of it when it's all said and done.. but how do you move a kid that was unranked, and all of the sudden got an offer from a school where he committed immediately? Maybe they dug up old tape? who knows.

So when I looked at last year and this upcoming year, that vast majority of first round picks were 4/5 stars despite there being many more 3 stars. And the only rebuttal is cherry picked information about a random year. Show me evidence that a higher percentage of 4/5 OL flop compared to 3 stars. I provided very clear evidence for the contrary.

Either that or admit you’re talking out of your ass

 

[78Cyclones]

He was good on the court, I remember watching him during the NCAA tournament being a key piece around the bucket

I was at the NCAA 2nd Round Game @ Winston-Salem when Cal (w / Tony Gonzalez) beat Villanova to advance to the Sweet 16 after watching North Carolina beat Colorado (w / Chauncey Billups) the day Dean Smith passed Adolph Rupp on the all-time win list!

 

[Thiefery]

So when I looked at last year and this upcoming year, that vast majority of first round picks were 4/5 stars despite there being many more 3 stars. And the only rebuttal is cherry picked information about a random year. Show me evidence that a higher percentage of 4/5 OL flop compared to 3 stars. I provided very clear evidence for the contrary.

Either that or admit you’re talking out of your ass

I broke down the 2015 top 10 at OT, OC,OG.. I hesitated on the '16 class because many were still playing this season.. but if you look at it, it doesn't seem very reassuring.. so how am I talking out my ass about the OL recruiting? And again you are going by Mock drafts for this draft.. in October.. I'm going off the rankings in the composite vs the actual NFL draft..