Their predictive metrics are pretty bad, I'd agree with you there. But, they've won @Marquette, swept Iowa, swept PSU and also beat MD and USC. That's 7 wins(2 OOC) against projected tournament teams. They've also got an SOS of 11. If you're around the cutline that's pretty good. Their 9-11 in league play, so them finishing in 12th doesn't matter as much. Not all 12th-place finishes are created equal. Trust me I hope they don't make it, but they're probably last 4 in at this point, which I'd Agree with.