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I think the COVID relief argument is too simplistic. This is what I observed:IMO this inflation is more a product of pumping too much money into the system during Covid than was necessary. No doubt supply chain issues are preventing the easier fix to that problem but there was simply too much money put into the system. Need to “pay for that” fix the supply chain issues and see how we are gonna replace the energy Russia supplied before things get back to normal.
Stimulus payments to individuals - Those got burned through pretty quickly and yes it helped lower supplies but we've had over a year to replace those supplies (literally the day after the payments went out I had to go to Walmart for some stuff and every buggy had a flat screen).
PPP Corporate Loans - Those paid down debt, went to earnings, and were paid out. Sure individual business owners pocketed cash off the PPP but that isn't causing supply chain issues and it was over a year ago.
Municipalities - Who the hell knows what they have done with the money but we can assume it's gone.
Infrastructure bill - yes that is going to be an issue and will definitely affect materials, labor and inflation but how much of that is currently being put to work in the economy right now? There is a ramp up.
So how does the above affect gas?
How does it affect beef and eggs?
It comes down to shortages in labor, transportation and materials. How do we bridge this because there is pent-up demand we just have to figure out how to take the overburden off basics and increase the supply and it will be a while until demand is met. In my neighborhood, there is a 4-month backlog if you want a fence built and it cost 3 times what it did 2 years ago. I can name 6 people that want to do home expansion projects but have them on hold because it's too expensive.