Clemson Joins FSU in Suing the ACC To Get Out of Media Rights

TaikoTiger said:
Yes, you posted a chart that shows the BIG / SEC getting 4 teams on avg the last 10 years which got them to 29%.
The BIG / SEC getting 5 teams in the upcoming CFP would net 36% (5/14) in 2028. Not sure how we're not on the same page on this.

SOS is going to be huge in determining the at-large teams. The SEC will get their 5 in with the teams they have right now. The BIG could get to 5 as well but adding FSU / Clem improves the overall strength of the conference to reach that number on avg
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5 isnt going to be a norm either.
 
OlyDuck said:
5 isnt going to be a norm either.
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Agreed ... these estimates just assume that when you had a couple from the old PAC and from the B1G you are going to get that many. But some of those teams will play each other a give each other losses.

That said, it will be 3 or 4 almost every year. Especially when SOS is involved. Even if you give the ACC and B12 two each, plus the G5 and ND, that leaves 3 each for the SEC and B1G. If you go to 14, that's 4 each for the SEC and the B1G.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
FWIW and FYI ...

YearB1GSEC
201433
201532
201662
201754
201845
201943
202025
202133
202243
202355
3935
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i dont feel like the ACC and BigXII would have drastically different results tho
 
TaikoTiger said:
Sure they wouldn't get the bump immediately
6 is a hard number to reach for 1 conference
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Nah. Pretty soon it will be 6 from the B1G and 6 from the SEC. No team from any other conference is worthy of a playoff spot at the big boy table. They can start their own playoff like the FCS and all other divisions.
 
OlyDuck said:
i dont feel like the ACC and BigXII would have drastically different results tho
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Than what?

There is a reason they are getting less than half of what the B1G and SEC are getting ... they won't be getting more than 1 or 2 teams in.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
Than what?

There is a reason they are getting less than half of what the B1G and SEC are getting ... they won't be getting more than 1 or 2 teams in.
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yes they can get more than 1 or 2 and will. As regularly? no
the numbers you gave show a lot of 3s and the Big XII and ACC had a lot of 3s as well. yes also 1 or 2 but still
using the model that puts the new teams in
22 Big Xii would be 3
21 Big XII 5
17 ACC 3
16 ACC 3
15 ACC 4
14 Big XII 4
18 and 19 (and 2020) only where at least one of the 2 conferences didnt get even 3

but also as has been said with the new structure of conferences and teams will these numbers matter?
will the it make a difference in rankings when 11, 12, 13 are all in the same conference in terms of 14 or 15 getting in ( as in would they still be there at final playoff ranking)
 
OlyDuck said:
yes they can get more than 1 or 2 and will. As regularly? no
the numbers you gave show a lot of 3s and the Big XII and ACC had a lot of 3s as well. yes also 1 or 2 but still
using the model that puts the new teams in
22 Big Xii would be 3
21 Big XII 5
17 ACC 3
16 ACC 3
15 ACC 4
14 Big XII 4
18 and 19 (and 2020) only where at least one of the 2 conferences didnt get even 3

but also as has been said with the new structure of conferences and teams will these numbers matter?
will the it make a difference in rankings when 11, 12, 13 are all in the same conference in terms of 14 or 15 getting in ( as in would they still be there at final playoff ranking)
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You mention that with the new conferences that it's not likely the results would be the same. The other big thing is that the B1G and the SEC are going to get SOS points that the ACC and the B12 won't get. That's why they want 3 AQs with 2AQs to the ACC and the B12. The simple fact of the matter is that the SEC and the B1G are going to be playing many more tough games and they are going to want that to be recognized.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
Because you are just pulling percentages out of your ass. There is nothing that says if they get 5 teams in, they get more %. They get 29%, no matter how many teams get in. You seem to think the percentage the SEC and the B1G get changes year to year and depends on the number of teams that get in. That's not the case. Tell me you understand that. Show me a single article that says that.

But it doesn't increase the likelihood that they would get more each year. If you add FSU and Clemson to either conference, suddenly Ole Miss is no longer in the discussion, or UF takes longer to come back. Or, FSU and Clemson start losing 4-5 games per season and aren't in the discussion. Adding more quality teams guarantees that more teams will lose more games at all levels of the conference.

You got screwed. You provide no incremental CFP value under the CFP formula. Not sure how you don't see this.
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The percentage is re-evaluated in 2028 and subject to change base off performance from now to then.
That's in the CFP contract.
This is only the 5th time I'm repeating this lol
 
Deep Creek said:
Nah. Pretty soon it will be 6 from the B1G and 6 from the SEC. No team from any other conference is worthy of a playoff spot at the big boy table. They can start their own playoff like the FCS and all other divisions.
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Max Greenfield Reaction GIF by CBS
 
OlyDuck said:
yes they can get more than 1 or 2 and will. As regularly? no
the numbers you gave show a lot of 3s and the Big XII and ACC had a lot of 3s as well. yes also 1 or 2 but still
using the model that puts the new teams in
22 Big Xii would be 3
21 Big XII 5
17 ACC 3
16 ACC 3
15 ACC 4
14 Big XII 4
18 and 19 (and 2020) only where at least one of the 2 conferences didnt get even 3

but also as has been said with the new structure of conferences and teams will these numbers matter?
will the it make a difference in rankings when 11, 12, 13 are all in the same conference in terms of 14 or 15 getting in ( as in would they still be there at final playoff ranking)
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ACC/BigXII will not be getting 3 teams in.
 
TaikoTiger said:
The percentage is re-evaluated in 2028 and subject to change base off performance from now to then.
That's in the CFP contract.
This is only the 5th time I'm repeating this lol
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It's the 5th time I have agreed with the fact you state - there is a check-in provision that gets evaluated in 2028 - but we obviously disagree as to what that fact means for Clemson and FSU's chance to get into the B1G or the SEC should you get out of the GOR. I would argue you are putting way too much faith in the idea that the check-in will work in your favor.

1. Neither of us knows what is in the CFP contract because we don't have access to it. We have been told that there is a "check-in" provision in 2028 that allows them to look at where everything stands and make adjustments. We are presuming that means adjusting the percentage of payment. I will further presume it means they want to see whether the ACC still exists or not to see what percentage the ACC gets.

2. You read that to mean they will look at the number of teams each conference has put into the CFP, and if a conference has under- or over-performed, it might get more or less. You list some percentages that appear to have no basis in fact as if they are fact. You have no way of knowing what the exact percentages might be, and or how many teams a conference has to get in, or not get in, to be deemed to have under or over-performed.

3. What you want it to mean is that if Clemson or FSU gets into a P2 conference, they might contribute to additional percentages being given that conference because you are presuming that Clemson and FSU will simply add 1 or 2 more teams getting into the CFP.

So, with all that in mind that I believe we can agree on, why do I think you are wrong?

1. We will have five years of CFP payments at 29% each for the P2 before the check-in takes place. You and FSU think you will get out of the GOR now. If you get out of the GOR now, you must have a place to land. For at least five years, you can do nothing to contribute to the CFP shares for the P2. They will get 29% with or without FSU and Clemson. For five years. So, unless you are willing to take a share of revenue that doesn't include CFP money - about 20 million per team - you aren't getting an invite.

2. As to the value you might add for the check-in in 2028, I think there are two problems. First, you assume you will be one of the teams that gets into the CFP every year. Yet, Clemson has fallen off since Sunshine left, and FSU has had one decent year in the past eight. That was while playing in the meh ACC. Now you will be playing a much tougher schedule in one of the P2 conferences - far better top teams, and far better middle teams. The idea you are going to be in the top 3-4 of the P2 teams is kind of presumptious, IMO. But assuming you are able to get into the CFP in more years than not, that brings us to the second problem - adding two very good teams does not mean the P2 conference that invites them in suddenly gets two more teams in the CFP. The far more likely scenario is that you take the place of a team like PSU, or Oregon, or Washington. Or LSU, or Tennessee, or Ole Miss. Wins and losses are zero-sum ... if you win enough to get into the CFP that will done at the expense of other teams that would have gotten into the CFP. So, you really don't provide more value in 2028.

I would expect you to argue that isn't the case ... that Clemson and FSU will allow the B1G, as an example, to get one more in each year. But, there is no way that the SEC will allow the B1G to get more of a percentage than they get. Now, that might all be done at the expense of the ACC. If the FSU is leaving, then the ACC might lose its P4 status. But that all depends on whether the ACC falls apart or not. In any event, we are getting so far into hypotheticals that no one knows.

But we do know this ... you want out now (I don't expect that to happen), not five years from now. And you have to have a landing space now. I am not convinced there is one, as you can't drive CFP money for at least 5 years if so. The B1G has shown they will give partial shares, but the SEC has not done that. So, maybe the B1G will let you with an Oregon deal. But they sure will be counting on the fact that you can drive additional CFP money - something seriously in question - or else, eventually, each team will take less to let you in.

We haven't even discussed that neither FSU nor Clemson are AAU. That has meant something to the B1G in the past. And I don't think the SEC will care to add two more quality teams to a conference that already has more top teams than not. The mid to lower-tier teams are not going to willingly pull in more losses, especially if they have to take less money to do so.

I hope that clears up my thoughts.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
Amongst other things AQ status for CFP, and a bigger payout.
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There still is no AQ status other than the highest ranked champions ACC wont lose that if they remain a conference
 
OlyDuck said:
There still is no AQ status other than the highest ranked champions ACC wont lose that if they remain a conference
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C'mon man ... being a P4 gives you AQ status - if the ACC is no longer P4, they will move to 4 AQs instead of 5. Basically, costing the ACC teams an AQ ... they would be thrown in with the G6 teams.

Don't @ me with "highest ranked champions" - I get what that means - it means they take the number of P conferences and add 1. If a conference loses P status, they change the formula.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
C'mon man ... being a P4 gives you AQ status - if the ACC is no longer P4, they will move to 4 AQs instead of 5. Basically, costing the ACC teams an AQ ... they would be thrown in with the G6 teams.

Don't @ me with "highest ranked champions" - I get what that means - it means they take the number of P conferences and add 1. If a conference loses P status, they change the formula.
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but you think a conference without FSU would drop that far in the eyes of the powers that be? even taking out a few more like NC, Clemson, Miami?
that the remainder wouldnt at the very least be looked at in the same light as the Big XII?
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
C'mon man ... being a P4 gives you AQ status - if the ACC is no longer P4, they will move to 4 AQs instead of 5. Basically, costing the ACC teams an AQ ... they would be thrown in with the G6 teams.

Don't @ me with "highest ranked champions" - I get what that means - it means they take the number of P conferences and add 1. If a conference loses P status, they change the formula.
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the only reason it happened to the Pac is because they lost everyone.
 
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