Elsa

KTg8trgrl said:
It's slowed down again.. that is the problem.. once it gets passed Cuba the low from out west is going to push it east.. looking at currents and upper level winds I say between Tampa and probably just a scoach N of cedar key for area of it coming ashore
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I could see this. I’ve noticed the low coming down for a bit and with her continuing to slow now I see a recurve hitting somewhere on the west side of the peninsula.

Hopefully she does as bad at building herself up going forward as she has so far.
 
The Euro had nothing moving up the east side of FL until maybe sometime late yesterday. Now they are the most aggressive.

A lot of that downplaying media uses this model heavily. Expect the media tone to change super fast now.
 

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Orlando_Eagles said:
Good luck. I hope she passes just west enough for you to just get a few of these angry bands.

I’m with you on the media. They are unvalued sources anymore (like everything else they do) and go with the most conservative models (at least this far out) out of fear of being accused of scaring anyone.

I know….they can’t seem to find the balance between over and under selling anything, storms included.
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My mom was in Vero when that supposed Cat 5 was supposed to flatten the place a few years ago. It was almost nothing there. They don't get the accelerating vs falling apart thing with these storms. Irma was so angry, she blew herself up when coming ashore. Florida Bay makes storms high energy. Charlie was nuts too - if winds like that hit the East Coast, thousands would die. It was a 20 mile wide tornado. Every tree on Captiva had its bark stripped off!

The worst storm I've ever been in was the "No Name" storm which hit Naples in the early 90s. Friends had boats like mine in their back yard and entire homes were blown out. The tidal surge was huge and the winds totally unexpected. Nobody really knew it was coming.
I guess these things can blow-up or fizzle-out so quickly, it takes away the empowerment many feel by watching the weatherman.
 
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JuiceTheGator said:
My mom was in Vero when that supposed Cat 5 was supposed to flatten the place a few years ago. It was almost nothing there. They don't get the accelerating vs falling apart thing with these storms. Irma was so angry, she blew herself up when coming ashore. Florida Bay makes storms high energy. Charlie was nuts too - if winds like that hit the East Coast, thousands would die. It was a 20 mile wide tornado. Every tree on Captiva had its bark stripped off!

The worst storm I've ever been in was the "No Name" storm which hit Naples in the early 90s. Friends had boats like mine in their back yard and entire homes were blown out. The tidal surge was huge and the winds totally unexpected. Nobody really knew it was coming.
I guess these things can blow-up or fizzle-out so quickly, it takes away the empowerment many feel by watching the weatherman.
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I think you’re speaking of Dorian? Dorian was a weird one in that it just sat on the Bahamas and went no where for a day or two. Prior to that stall all models had it hitting from West Palm to Savannah. Models couldn’t find the picture once it stalled.

What I do remember about it was that models like the Euro (more historically accurate) started showing what’s it’s been the last few years….less accurate. But media still uses a model like this. They lean on historical accuracy more than accuracy in the more recent term.

Charlie I know well. We had the worse storm experience I’ve ever had all the way up here. Got Charley right over top of us. It was only 45 minutes but boy that was a mad storm. Noticed it all the more when I went down to Sanibel/Captiva the next summer.

You’re mentioning the Storm of the Century in 1993? I remember that one and remember the media being flat footed. Still, seems there was notice of what was coming all the way down by you….maybe the resolve to batten down wasn’t heeded.

Lots of snowbirds in the winter down there not used to preparing for such things.
 
Orlando_Eagles said:
I think you’re speaking of Dorian? Dorian was a weird one in that it just sat on the Bahamas and went no where for a day or two. Prior to that stall all models had it hitting from West Palm to Savannah. Models couldn’t find the picture once it stalled.

What I do remember about it was that models like the Euro (more historically accurate) started showing what’s it’s been the last few years….less accurate. But media still uses a model like this. They lean on historical accuracy more than accuracy in the more recent term.

Charlie I know well. We had the worse storm experience I’ve ever had all the way up here. Got Charley right over top of us. It was only 45 minutes but boy that was a mad storm. Noticed it all the more when I went down to Sanibel/Captiva the next summer.

You’re mentioning the Storm of the Century in 1993? I remember that one and remember the media being flat footed. Still, seems there was notice of what was coming all the way down by you….maybe the resolve to batten down wasn’t heeded.

Lots of snowbirds in the winter down there not used to preparing for such things.
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This one. Everything was a real mess.

www.tampabay.com

Photo gallery: Remembering the no-name storm of 1993

25 years ago, the Tampa Bay area was digging out from a massive storm that literally came out of nowhere.
www.tampabay.com www.tampabay.com
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JuiceTheGator said:
This one. Everything was a real mess.

www.tampabay.com

Photo gallery: Remembering the no-name storm of 1993

25 years ago, the Tampa Bay area was digging out from a massive storm that literally came out of nowhere.
www.tampabay.com www.tampabay.com
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Yeah, read up more on that after I posted. I get it. The lower end of the front was not doing much. The upper end was socking the hell out of the panhandle and north. And once the southern end of the front got close it blew up out of nowhere. Yikes.
 
Hurricane Hunters just in and verified she’s even a little more west than we were tracking.
 
Orlando_Eagles said:
Yeah, read up more on that after I posted. I get it. The lower end of the front was not doing much. The upper end was socking the hell out of the panhandle and north. And once the southern end of the front got close it blew up out of nowhere. Yikes.
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I was in South Carolina at the time.. I had the absolute worst hangover after the run up celebrations to St. Patrick's day in Savannah.. we went from 78* the night before to 90 mph sustained winds and rain to Snowing by 4pm my soon to be husband at the time had to come check on me every couple hours or so and keep putting on warmer clothes between fire dept calls.. to the point he bundled me up took me up to the fire department and made me sleep on the couch.. that was the day I swore I would never drink like that again.. and for 28 years I've kept that promise.. here's to 28 more!
 
Y'all Flawda folk are fucked. Worstest storm I've ever seen'ded
 
This is a weird approach from Elsa. The first band came barreling through. But now, I look up at the clouds and they're almost completely still. The storm is there disturbing the atmosphere, but there's no rotation. The breeze is very light from the SE and the sky is perfect still.

Having said that, the tide is super low. It's the kind of low tide we get in winter with a front moving through and 25mph + NE winds blowing the water offshore. Well, what's pushing it out now?

This is a weird one - kinda' freaks me out.
 
JuiceTheGator said:
This is a weird approach from Elsa. The first band came barreling through. But now, I look up at the clouds and they're almost completely still. The storm is there disturbing the atmosphere, but there's no rotation. The breeze is very light from the SE and the sky is perfect still.

Having said that, the tide is super low. It's the kind of low tide we get in winter with a front moving through and 25mph + NE winds blowing the water offshore. Well, what's pushing it out now?

This is a weird one - kinda' freaks me out.
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Nothing is pushing water out. It’s pulling it out.

Ive been reading she is not the most organized storm so far. Sheer south of Cuba was pretty solid. But, even with that, she is sticking up pretty high. I think the pieces are there to form up a little more in the Gulf. But the worst should stay off shore.
 
Orlando_Eagles said:
Nothing is pushing water out. It’s pulling it out.

Ive been reading she is not the most organized storm so far. Sheer south of Cuba was pretty solid. But, even with that, she is sticking up pretty high. I think the pieces are there to form up a little more in the Gulf. But the worst should stay off shore.
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What's pulling it out? There's nothing anywhere west of here.
 
JuiceTheGator said:
What's pulling it out? There's nothing anywhere west of here.
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Yeah, you’re right….she is far too south yet. I don’t know for sure why it’s out so much. I have heard the high tides have been very high lately on the west coast. That doesn’t explain it either.
 
11pm update should be about done with Cuba.. and it missed the Sierra Maestra mountain range while there.. this tricky lil whore might just blow up tween now and the am
 
Orlando_Eagles said:
Starting some chatter on this storm. Because….it feels like one of those storms that could do just what is forecasted (decent sized tropical storm)….or could be more, and giving it attention is really more of a reverse jinx thing.

As the US goes it is feeling like just a Florida thing of interest.
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i changed my trip. instead of coming in tomorrow morning and doing Clearwater - just going to come in Wednesday and do the beach days Sat and Sun down over in Vero Beach. no point in sitting in a hotel watching it rain.
 
This storm has no west side. Sucking in dry air from the west and messing with her bad.

Still, Florida is on the east side. So, we will get rain and some tornados and some surge on the coast. But I can’t see her strengthening too much more.
 
Not worried too much, we'll get heavy winds and rain, maybe some surge around the coast, but the media outside of FL are making it sound like the end of the world, it's not. I stay away from The Weather Channel, CNN etc, they always big everything up for ratings. Let's not forget video of Seidel during Florence where he got caught sensationalizing.
 
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