Expanded CFP - will it ruin the regular season? from The Athletic

[WhosYourDawggy]

I think the opposite. I think the play in games will have some good games, but the talent differential between the top 3-4 schools and everyone else is vast -- if say, a #12 team upsets the #5 team and then have to face whoever the #1 team is -- They are going to be 3-4 touchdown underdogs.

Reality is -- only 4 out of 16 CFP semifinal games have even been remotely close. 12 of the 16 games have been decided by 14 or more points. The average margin of victory in the CFP semi finals is over 21 ppg. Adding more teams isn't going to change that.

- I agree that the first round should be competitive, and a lot of fun.

- Apply your analysis to last year. I think we will see some competitive games with 1 or 2 of the top 4. For example, Michigan last year would not have been that much better than one of the 5-12 winners. Same with Cincy. Bama and UGA would likely have blown out whoever they played. And Baylor would have been one of the top 4, while UGA would have been the 5 seed.

- It will be interesting to see whether they reseed if a 12 beats a 5. On one hand it's unfair that the no. 1 team would play the no. 8/9 while the 4 seed gets the 12 seed. But they don't reseed in March Madness. Then again, they've missed the top 4 seeding almost as often as they have gotten it right based on end results.

 

[Top Cat]

I think the opposite. I think the play in games will have some good games, but the talent differential between the top 3-4 schools and everyone else is vast -- if say, a #12 team upsets the #5 team and then have to face whoever the #1 team is -- They are going to be 3-4 touchdown underdogs.

Reality is -- only 4 out of 16 CFP semifinal games have even been remotely close. 12 of the 16 games have been decided by 14 or more points. The average margin of victory in the CFP semi finals is over 21 ppg. Adding more teams isn't going to change that.

I think the main question is does the recruit considering Ohio State, Alabama, or Georgia before maybe give programs recruiting in the top 6-20 a 2nd or 3rd look in the longterm.

12 team CFP changes the calculus some for the top recruits, imo. It's good news for schools like Nebraska if they can get the right coach there.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

I think the main question is does the recruit considering Ohio State, Alabama, or Georgia before maybe give programs recruiting in the top 6-20 a 2nd or 3rd look in the longterm.

12 team CFP changes the calculus some for the top recruits, imo. It's good news for schools like Nebraska if they can get the right coach there.

It isn't going to change anything, especially with the beating the top teams are going to put on those lower seeded teams.

The top recruits are still going to go to the top 3-4 schools, because they don't just want an invite to the CFP, but they want to win and the best recruits want to play alongside the best recruits.

NIL is Nebraska's last chance to compete recruiting. They have to pull a Texas A&M and use a blank check to buy a recruiting class and hope it snow balls from there.

 

[Deep Creek]

I've never understood the "it'll make the regular season meaningless/participation trophy" argument. Of the arguments against expanding the playoffs, that one is the dumbest and most easily debunked.

I don't either. We have a little sport here in Texas called High School Football. Some people may have heard of it. There is just a little passion surrounding it....regular season and playoffs. Has been that way a very, very long time. You win your district you get to participate in the playoffs...regardless of how strong or weak your district is. You keep going until you lose or reach the final game. And the passion hasn't subsided because of some one being allowed in the playoffs from a weak district. In fact, the passion may have gotten stronger.

Here's where we went brain dead the other direction. Now allow as many as FOUR teams from a district into the playoffs. That's just as stupid the other direction. Even so, those teams get eliminated early and it hasn't decreased the passion one damn bit.

 

[Wizardhawk]

Yes, there will be more games of interest the last couple of week after expansion. Some of those 2 loss teams can now get rewarded anyway so why not?

It isn't the last week or two that gets eroded, it's all of the weeks. A loss no longer matters, and for elite teams even a second one doesn't end a campaign.

For some that means more interest because the dream is alive longer, while others fall less excitement because each of the regular season games just don't mean as much. Less stress and lower intensity.

Neither is wrong and you aren't going to change anyone who feels the opposite. Everyone gets something different from their sports fandom.

And yes, I think we have watered down most of our sports. Baseball going to 6 WC's is stupid IMO.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I think the main question is does the recruit considering Ohio State, Alabama, or Georgia before maybe give programs recruiting in the top 6-20 a 2nd or 3rd look in the longterm.

12 team CFP changes the calculus some for the top recruits, imo. It's good news for schools like Nebraska if they can get the right coach there.

Something that seems obvious to me. But, we'll see ... it's not like that's the only thing those programs have to offer. When you put 15 people in the NFL, 5 first rounders, that's going to be attractive. But driving parity into CFB at even a small level is something I hope will come out of this.

 

[rmilia1]

If they had ecosystem it to say 24-32 then yes it could potentially have diluted the regular season

But going to 12 really won't do that

All youre going to get with 12 is better OOC matchups and more important games later in the year

 

[Volbound1700]

he sucks man.. annoying voice, annoying freakishly large cranium on a dwarfs body.. glad when he got pushed out of espn big 12 coverage and he went on to onlyfans to release his shitty columns.. TN seemed to like it and now he's covering them

Actually, he is meh with Tennessee fans based on feedback that I got but the girl he married was a friend of mine back in the day (nothing romantic). I have met him personally on a couple of occasions and he is a nice guy. We would talk football sometimes as well (he did the Big12 back when I talked to him a lot).

 

[Volbound1700]

Going back on topic. My opinion:

1. Extended playoffs = More meaningful football games (yes they replace bowl games that don't really matter so they are not technically extra games but they are extra football games that are meaningful)

2. Ensures all Power 5 leagues get their Champion a shot at CFB National Title. Last year we had nobody from ACC, Big12, or Pac12 in the playoffs for example

3. Opens the door for the Cinderella G5 team to make it. Although Cincinnati did break the barrier last year, I can almost guarantee you that those great Boise State teams of the past or UCF in 2017 would not be left out in a 12-team playoff format

Extended playoff solves a lot of headaches. Sure it gives you more B1G and SEC teams in postseason but it helps these other causes listed as well.

 

[Red_Alert]

It isn't going to change anything, especially with the beating the top teams are going to put on those lower seeded teams.

The top recruits are still going to go to the top 3-4 schools, because they don't just want an invite to the CFP, but they want to win and the best recruits want to play alongside the best recruits.

NIL is Nebraska's last chance to compete recruiting. They have to pull a Texas A&M and use a blank check to buy a recruiting class and hope it snow balls from there.

^^^^

 

[Red_Alert]

Yes, there will be more games of interest the last couple of week after expansion. Some of those 2 loss teams can now get rewarded anyway so why not?

It isn't the last week or two that gets eroded, it's all of the weeks. A loss no longer matters, and for elite teams even a second one doesn't end a campaign.

For some that means more interest because the dream is alive longer, while others fall less excitement because each of the regular season games just don't mean as much. Less stress and lower intensity.

Neither is wrong and you aren't going to change anyone who feels the opposite. Everyone gets something different from their sports fandom.

And yes, I think we have watered down most of our sports. Baseball going to 6 WC's is stupid IMO.

Scenario Village just tripled in population.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

It isn't the last week or two that gets eroded, it's all of the weeks. A loss no longer matters, and for elite teams even a second one doesn't end a campaign.

A loss or two matters a lot. Getting a top 4 seed is vital. You have to win your conference to do that. UGA would have (1) had to play an extra game last year, (2) but would have at least had a home field game - but if you lose 2 you won't get that. Losing a game means you may miss out on a bye, have to play an extra game, and may have to play that away. That's a significantly huge difference and something to play for.

Also, and maybe this is an SEC thing, but no one at UGA wants to lose to UF, Auburn, or UTjr, or any major rivals. That's plenty of reasons to win alone. No one will rest players, or not try, or not care if they lose.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

^^^^

I'm just speaking the truth. It may get the occasional kid to stay at or close to home now that the CFP will be open to 12 schools. But if a kid is going to be travelling multiple states or time zones -- they are still going to go to the same schools as before.

I realize that isn't what you want to hear, but it is the truth. NIL has been around for a few years. How much has changed with recruiting?

 

[Red_Alert]

I'm just speaking the truth. It may get the occasional kid to stay at or close to home now that the CFP will be open to 12 schools. But if a kid is going to be travelling multiple states or time zones -- they are still going to go to the same schools as before.

I realize that isn't what you want to hear, but it is the truth. NIL has been around for a few years. How much has changed with recruiting?

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

We know you want to grasp at any straw to give Nebraska a lifeline, but if you truly look at the big picture, you have to know it isn't changing much of anything if they have 4 or 12 in the CFP for recruiting. It could help some schools in local recruiting to get a kid to stay home, but if a kid is going out of state for school, it is going to be the same schools they are choosing now.

I WISH it would change it. Michigan has lost out on a ton of recruits where it came down to UM or Alabama, UM or Ohio State, UM or Georgia, UM or Clemson. It won't though because the same handful of teams are going to win every year and that is where the elite recruits are going to go. It is what it is.

 

[Red_Alert]

We know you want to grasp at any straw to give Nebraska a lifeline, but if you truly look at the big picture, you have to know it isn't changing much of anything if they have 4 or 12 in the CFP for recruiting. It could help some schools in local recruiting to get a kid to stay home, but if a kid is going out of state for school, it is going to be the same schools they are choosing now.

I WISH it would change it. Michigan has lost out on a ton of recruits where it came down to UM or Alabama, UM or Ohio State, UM or Georgia, UM or Clemson. It won't though because the same handful of teams are going to win every year and that is where the elite recruits are going to go. It is what it is.

 

[Wizardhawk]

A loss or two matters a lot. Getting a top 4 seed is vital. You have to win your conference to do that. UGA would have (1) had to play an extra game last year, (2) but would have at least had a home field game - but if you lose 2 you won't get that. Losing a game means you may miss out on a bye, have to play an extra game, and may have to play that away. That's a significantly huge difference and something to play for.

Also, and maybe this is an SEC thing, but no one at UGA wants to lose to UF, Auburn, or UTjr, or any major rivals. That's plenty of reasons to win alone. No one will rest players, or not try, or not care if they lose.

K. For a handful of teams maybe. Doesn't do a thing for me, nor most that at best hope to land an auto bid from a weak conference or sneak in on the last at-large spots. Just having to be the tallest midget doesn't have the same feel. Charity invites don't mean as much.

Most of the 120+ teams never had a chance to begin with and aren't going to under this system. For the few that now get something new it will add something for them. Applies to those G5's that never really had a chance so of course it's a major advance for them. For some that loved watching the drama of one loss is an out for teams that aren't their own, things change and not for the best. I just won't care as much about some of those high marquee games that won't mean anything either way until the playoffs. Just how I see it. Again, it's not about what it may or may not mean to MY team, it's about how I see the weekly must see games all year long.

 

[Collegefbfan]

I just have to wonder. Let's say the 4 team model was here to stay. How long would it be before a 2-loss team made the CFP? I mean it has to happen sometime, right? THE FOLLOWING IS JUST AN EXAMPLE: Like Oregon losing to Georgia. What if the score was closer? A lot closer. Then, Oregon loses a close one to another 9 or 10 win PAC 12 team, but blows out the rest of the decently strong PAC 12. Then, Oregon just blows out an undefeated Southern Cal team in the PAC 12 champs game. Your undefeated Georgia and say one loss Bama, and undefeated Ohio State make the playoff. What if all that is left is a 2-loss champ from a low ACC, a 2-loss PAC champ Oregon from a stronger PAC 12, and some G5 teams are undefeated but no great wins? I mean would it eventually happen, right?

 

[TaikoTiger]

Only someone in the ACC would say this. Sure, who wouldn't want to have their regular season be the playoffs when you are in a conference that provides little competition? Come play in the SEC and let's see you make this argument. Seriously, you might not even have made the CFP in the two years you won the NC. I am not saying that you wouldn't have won the SEC ... you might have, but your path would have been way more difficult.

Clemson beats Bama, OSU, Lamar Jackson and you think some how the 2016 Gators are stopping Clemson?


And also 3-0 against the SEC including its best team in 2018

 

[Kachina]

Clemson beats Bama, OSU, Lamar Jackson and you think some how the 2016 Gators are stopping Clemson?
View attachment 87339 View attachment 87341

And also 3-0 against the SEC including its best team in 2018
View attachment 87343

If I remember this game correctly, the game was actually VERY CLOSE, but 2 bad Alabama turnovers changed it completely.