Do they control it or do they let it play out? Name a year where they got it "wrong". There might have been one year, there was debate between two teams but other than that...yes, like I said the rankings aren't perfect at the beginning but it sorts itself out and that is bc teams control how they play on the field. So no, teams control their destiny.
Teams like Cincy don't though. Does it take one year of Cincy sliding in and getting their ass handed to for people to realize they don't belong. They need to get in a P5 conference or further more in a top conference. Not likely so if they don't do that they need to load up on big non-conference games. They did play ND and that is just bad luck the way it played out but they need more than one non-conference big game if they want a chance. That's just the way it works.