Here is how I see it:
- Clearly, the southern states have an advantage. The bulk of the good LOS recruits are from the south. Southern players generally don't want to go to northern/midwestern states.
Georgia’s rise and California’s slip mean the Big Three is officially the Big Four.
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- But, within the south, coaches that can recruit really matter. It's why the Texas and Florida schools haven't recruited well, and why someone like Smart took UGA from being a really good recruiting school to an elite recruiting school.
- Northern and midwestern schools are at a disadvantage because they have less blue chips in their respective states, and in general the better players don't want to go north to cold weather and ugly women.
- The jury is still out as to whether a really good recruiter could do well a northern or midwestern school, but I'd be inclined to say no as they would get paid to go to the south and coach there (see, Kelley from ND).
- This means CFB championship football is a southern sport for the foreseeable future unless NIL, free agency and expanded playoffs makes a difference, and the northern schools can get coaches who can recruit the south that will stay there.
- While the domination has be greater in the past 20 years, it's not like this is new. Let's look at the past 20 years, then the past 50 years.
Past 20 years - 18 southern teams, 2 northern/midwest teams (tOSU in 14 and 02).
Past 50 years - 35 southern teams, 15 northern/midwest teams (tOSU, UM, ND, Neb, BYU, Colo, Pitt, PSU, WashU)