How did the best head coaches do in the first 6 years?

[WhosYourDawggy]

Texas and Oklahoma are REALLY pushing it. A team located in Los Angeles doesn't come close to qualifying as southern. LA is probably as far away as you can get from being southern culturally speaking in the US. Was fun watching the LA sports media meltdown in the NLCS though.

From the way I see it, it's a couple things (1) culture, (2) weather, (3) population that produces black athletes, not purely geographic.

SoCal has an historical football culture, although I believe it is fading with their population shifting to more latino and asian which is not a CFB demographic, in general. Weather is obvious. And they have historically produced black athletes. That puts it in the "south" when looking at it in a CFB perspective.

I'm not even going to argue Oklahoma and Texas with you.

 

[Thiefery]

Texas as a state is awesome, but if you travel through the different regions, they feel almost like different states. It's an open ground for recruiting.. I think ou can get a #1 recruiting class with the right coach and the right year (like DFW being loaded the way Houston was in '22).

It would be something if this state only had 2 universities though, maybe then they would have recruited this state "right"

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

Texas as a state is awesome, but if you travel through the different regions, they feel almost like different states. It's an open ground for recruiting.. I think ou can get a #1 recruiting class with the right coach and the right year (like DFW being loaded the way Houston was in '22).

It would be something if this state only had 2 universities though, maybe then they would have recruited this state "right"

That'd be a like a Michigan fan thinking they can get a #1 recruiting class. OU is just like UM -- they have some talent in state, the occasional five star recruit, but they have to go out of state to convince these kids to join their program.

If you look what it takes to get a #1 recruiting class these days -- you have to have a RIDICULOUS class. Teams are signing 7 five star recruits in a single class. Bama has done it. Ohio State has done it. A&M has bought 7.

So if Oklahoma wants to buy a #1 recruiting class -- yeah, they could get the top class. But that's the only chance teams like OU, ND or Michigan are getting it. And I'm a Michigan fan.

 

[Thiefery]

That'd be a like a Michigan fan thinking they can get a #1 recruiting class. OU is just like UM -- they have some talent in state, the occasional five star recruit, but they have to go out of state to convince these kids to join their program.

If you look what it takes to get a #1 recruiting class these days -- you have to have a RIDICULOUS class. Teams are signing 7 five star recruits in a single class. Bama has done it. Ohio State has done it. A&M has bought 7.

So if Oklahoma wants to buy a #1 recruiting class -- yeah, they could get the top class. But that's the only chance teams like OU, ND or Michigan are getting it. And I'm a Michigan fan.

Is Ann Arbor close to a recruiting pool like the DFW area is? it's like a 3 hour drive from there to Norman. Not saying or hoping it happens... but it's possible.

 

[Tharvot]

There is a hierarchy even when talking about "those schools". Michigan is NEVER going to have the #1 recruiting class. Oklahoma is in the same boat, Notre Dame is in the same boat. Texas A&M was in that boat to until they open up the purse string and purchased a class.

Pretty simple why those teams won't sign the top overall class -- they are relying almost solely on out of state talent when recruiting. ND is ranked 1st right now for 2023 and i bet they aren't top 5 by the time signing day hits for 2023.

When a select few teams start each class multiple in state 5 star recruits or a bunch of top 100 recruits in state -- it is next to impossible for other schools without that type of talent in state to catch up.

If ND could recruit like LSU -- Brian Kelly wouldn't have left. If OU could recruit like USC -- Lincoln Riley wouldn't have left. It isn't that OU and ND don't give you an advantage over other schools, it obviously does, but the advantage is much larger at LSU and USC.

What you're talking about in regards to recruiting has changed about a decade ago. It's a national game. Having in-state talent to pick from definitely gives the home state school an advantage, but by no means does it guarantee they'll keep those players.

Ohio State pretty consistently gets top 5 recruiting classes, but most of their elite talent comes from out of state. Lets just look at the last 5 years of classes the Buckeyes have had:

2022 - 5-stars: 2 (both from Ohio); 4-stars: 16 (only 3 from Ohio)
2021 - 5-stars: 4 (one from Ohio); 4-stars: 16 (5 from Ohio)
2020 - 5-stars: 2 (one from Ohio); 4-stars: 16 (2 from Ohio)
2019 - 5-stars: 1 (from Ohio); 4-stars: 10 (3 from Ohio)
2018 - 5-stars: 1 (from Florida); 4-stars: 21 (4 from Ohio)

The Buckeyes have always recruited Florida hard. In the last decade, they have also opened up a lot of inroads into Texas. They don't pull from Cali nearly as much as other schools do, but do end up pulling from Missouri and Virginia a decent amount.

Notre Dame's recruiting issues are solely on the School's more rigid admittance standards. Their national reach and attraction is just fine. To complain that Michigan and Oklahoma have any trouble recruiting is laughable.

 

[Thiefery]

2022 - 5-stars: 2 (both from Ohio); 4-stars: 16 (only 3 from Ohio)
2021 - 5-stars: 4 (one from Ohio); 4-stars: 16 (5 from Ohio)
2020 - 5-stars: 2 (one from Ohio); 4-stars: 16 (2 from Ohio)
2019 - 5-stars: 1 (from Ohio); 4-stars: 10 (3 from Ohio)
2018 - 5-stars: 1 (from Florida); 4-stars: 21 (4 from Ohio)

2022-#4 nationally
2021- #2 nationally
2020-#5 nationally
2019-#14 nationally
2018- #2 Nationally

I will add that it does help when you know there is like an eighty percent or so chance they can lock down bluechip talent in state early. They then can continue to work on OOS kids harder into coming there.

A little tougher to do in the state of TX, FL, CA where a lot more in state blue chip talent wait til right before their senior season begins or all the way to NSD1 to announce their commitment.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

What you're talking about in regards to recruiting has changed about a decade ago. It's a national game. Having in-state talent to pick from definitely gives the home state school an advantage, but by no means does it guarantee they'll keep those players.

Ohio State pretty consistently gets top 5 recruiting classes, but most of their elite talent comes from out of state. Lets just look at the last 5 years of classes the Buckeyes have had:

2022 - 5-stars: 2 (both from Ohio); 4-stars: 16 (only 3 from Ohio)
2021 - 5-stars: 4 (one from Ohio); 4-stars: 16 (5 from Ohio)
2020 - 5-stars: 2 (one from Ohio); 4-stars: 16 (2 from Ohio)
2019 - 5-stars: 1 (from Ohio); 4-stars: 10 (3 from Ohio)
2018 - 5-stars: 1 (from Florida); 4-stars: 21 (4 from Ohio)

The Buckeyes have always recruited Florida hard. In the last decade, they have also opened up a lot of inroads into Texas. They don't pull from Cali nearly as much as other schools do, but do end up pulling from Missouri and Virginia a decent amount.

Notre Dame's recruiting issues are solely on the School's more rigid admittance standards. Their national reach and attraction is just fine. To complain that Michigan and Oklahoma have any trouble recruiting is laughable.

The state of Michigan had 3 top 100 recruits in those 5 years, where OSU signed 5 five star recruits from Ohio alone -- The state of Ohio had 16 top 100 recruits in that 5 year span. Actually -- the state of Ohio helped PSU have a class ranked as high as they had this year, by signing two top 50 recruits from Ohio in Allar and Saunders.

And I think you are confusing recruiting like the nationally elite with having trouble recruiting -- OU and Michigan have no problem recruiting top 20, even top 10 classes. That will get them exactly what they are right now -- good enough to get to the CFP to be the fodder for the elite schools.

I'm stating OU and Michigan will never be able to recruit like the elite programs (those schools finishing with a top 3 classes year in and year, where they have 3, 4, 5+ five star recruits) -- they don't have the in state talent as a base to compete.


It is as if the schools in talent rich states think it is the norm and don't realize the enormous difference between a top 3 or 4 recruiting class compared to a top 10.

Go look at 2020 -- UM finished with a top 10 recruiting class. The top recruit UM signed was AJ Henning. If he had signed with Ohio State -- he would have been the 11th highest ranked recruit for Ohio State. Yet -- Michigan had a top 10 recruiting class. That is why the gap between the elite and everyone else is larger than it has ever been.

UM just got lucky this past year that OSU's defensive recruits were soft in their front 7, because OSU had an offense to win a national title last year.

 

[TaikoTiger]

Their name literally has Southern in it

 

[SoonerC]

Lincoln Riley has only been a coach for 5 years, but this shows the trajectory he had things on at OU

 

[TaikoTiger]

Since we're on the topic
Bump -> Is it finally time for us to crown Georgia #1

Here's how football recruiting hotbeds have evolved

Georgia has reached the level of Florida and California

andywittry.substack.com

Summary: As more people move to the South (must likely because of weather) more of the top football talents is coming from the South.

My thoughts is not just because of population the best football players come from the South. But I believe there's just more of an investment with money and culture that is put towards football at the Youth level here in the South. A lot of these D1 players are gifted enough to play in multiple sports. In the South, that player is more likely to focus on football and in the North, that player is more likely to focus on basketball.

 

[Deep Creek]

Since we're on the topic
Bump -> Is it finally time for us to crown Georgia #1

Here's how football recruiting hotbeds have evolved

Georgia has reached the level of Florida and California

andywittry.substack.com

Summary: As more people move to the South (must likely because of weather) more of the top football talents is coming from the South.

My thoughts is not just because of population the best football players come from the South. But I believe there's just more of an investment with money and culture that is put towards football at the Youth level here in the South. A lot of these D1 players are gifted enough to play in multiple sports. In the South, that player is more likely to focus on football and in the North, that player is more likely to focus on basketball.

Since I've lived in Texas all my life, I have a question for some of you more well traveled folks. I understand not all places are as insane about high school football as we are in Texas. But geez, do they not even play football up North? Or kids just not interested in it? Illinois for example. 12-13 million people. They only have 14 total 3* and 4*players listed on 24/7 for 2023. The state of New York has the same number of top recruits as New Mexico....ZERO. WTH?

 

[Illustrious Potentate]

Since I've lived in Texas all my life, I have a question for some of you more well traveled folks. I understand not all places are as insane about high school football as we are in Texas. But geez, do they not even play football up North? Or kids just not interested in it? Illinois for example. 12-13 million people. They only have 14 total 3* and 4*players listed on 24/7 for 2023. The state of New York has the same number of top recruits as New Mexico....ZERO. WTH?

Limp wrists play limp wristed games like roundball and ice soccer

 

[Tharvot]

Since we're on the topic
Bump -> Is it finally time for us to crown Georgia #1

Here's how football recruiting hotbeds have evolved

Georgia has reached the level of Florida and California

andywittry.substack.com

Summary: As more people move to the South (must likely because of weather) more of the top football talents is coming from the South.

My thoughts is not just because of population the best football players come from the South. But I believe there's just more of an investment with money and culture that is put towards football at the Youth level here in the South. A lot of these D1 players are gifted enough to play in multiple sports. In the South, that player is more likely to focus on football and in the North, that player is more likely to focus on basketball.

Population shift is definitely a contributing factor. Demographics are another large factor as is the general residence (urban, suburban, or rural). Most of the best athletes in the US do happen to be black. Most black folks up north live in densely populated urban settings. There's not much space for football or baseball fields, but there's a ton of basketball courts. The south is a little more spread out, as is the black population. You're also right that the south generally puts a huge emphasis on football, much more than other sports.

Since I've lived in Texas all my life, I have a question for some of you more well traveled folks. I understand not all places are as insane about high school football as we are in Texas. But geez, do they not even play football up North? Or kids just not interested in it? Illinois for example. 12-13 million people. They only have 14 total 3* and 4*players listed on 24/7 for 2023. The state of New York has the same number of top recruits as New Mexico....ZERO. WTH?

Keep in mind where the population centers are in those states. You're talking about Chicago, NYC, and a bunch of farm land basically everywhere else in those states. There are definitely also other interests in those states. New York state is a hotbed for lacrosse. The plains of Illinois have a lot of baseball going on. But, in the cities where most of the population resides and where all the best athletes are, hoops is king.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Since we're on the topic
Bump -> Is it finally time for us to crown Georgia #1

Here's how football recruiting hotbeds have evolved

Georgia has reached the level of Florida and California

andywittry.substack.com

Summary: As more people move to the South (must likely because of weather) more of the top football talents is coming from the South.

My thoughts is not just because of population the best football players come from the South. But I believe there's just more of an investment with money and culture that is put towards football at the Youth level here in the South. A lot of these D1 players are gifted enough to play in multiple sports. In the South, that player is more likely to focus on football and in the North, that player is more likely to focus on basketball.

That is a fantastic article. Thanks!

 

[TaikoTiger]

Since I've lived in Texas all my life, I have a question for some of you more well traveled folks. I understand not all places are as insane about high school football as we are in Texas. But geez, do they not even play football up North? Or kids just not interested in it? Illinois for example. 12-13 million people. They only have 14 total 3* and 4*players listed on 24/7 for 2023. The state of New York has the same number of top recruits as New Mexico....ZERO. WTH?

Funny you say that. When I was younger, I went to all of my cousin's HS games. We ended up moving from Chicago to SC in his senior year and the Friday night atmosphere is completely different. Maybe because Professional sports takes center stage, I grew up (to the age of 10) barely recognizing the sport of CFB was even a thing.

 

[Thiefery]

Funny you say that. When I was younger, I went to all of my cousin's HS games. We ended up moving from Chicago to SC in his senior year and the Friday night atmosphere is completely different. Maybe because Professional sports takes center stage, I grew up (to the age of 10) barely recognizing the sport of CFB was even a thing.

I was born and raised in Austin.. UT athletics were everything growing up since we didn't have pro teams. There were a lot of cowboys and then Oiler fans, but UT is king in Austin.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

Since I've lived in Texas all my life, I have a question for some of you more well traveled folks. I understand not all places are as insane about high school football as we are in Texas. But geez, do they not even play football up North? Or kids just not interested in it? Illinois for example. 12-13 million people. They only have 14 total 3* and 4*players listed on 24/7 for 2023. The state of New York has the same number of top recruits as New Mexico....ZERO. WTH?

I can speak for Michigan and Illinois (as I live in one and visit the other quite often, as my brother lives there).

Michigan has a large african american population in Detroit, but they simply don't have the facilities, programs, etc. to churn out elite athletes and many don't have the parental guidance to help them, as 80% of kids in detroit come from single parent households. The population in detroit are also located in one section of detroit, not in the downtown Detroit area, which has been transformed and now has high price lofts, high rises, etc

Illinois is almost a carbon copy of detroit, but they have a much larger, much more high end downtown. In Illinois, they have the southside of Chicago and the West side of Chicago, where the african american population live. Growing up in those areas, you are more worried about making it out alive than dreaming about being a football star. Most use athletics as a way to get out of those areas, but programs to help them excel are few and far between. To put in perspective about the gun violence in just the southside of Chicago (not all of Chicago) -- last year, the south side of Chicago has 18 murders in 24 hours.

What is readily available to these kids are basketball courts. It is free, it is something they can do with friends. They can do it in the winter time inside schools or the YMCA.

 

[Deep Creek]

Population shift is definitely a contributing factor. Demographics are another large factor as is the general residence (urban, suburban, or rural). Most of the best athletes in the US do happen to be black. Most black folks up north live in densely populated urban settings. There's not much space for football or baseball fields, but there's a ton of basketball courts. The south is a little more spread out, as is the black population. You're also right that the south generally puts a huge emphasis on football, much more than other sports.




Keep in mind where the population centers are in those states. You're talking about Chicago, NYC, and a bunch of farm land basically everywhere else in those states. There are definitely also other interests in those states. New York state is a hotbed for lacrosse. The plains of Illinois have a lot of baseball going on. But, in the cities where most of the population resides and where all the best athletes are, hoops is king.

I can speak for Michigan and Illinois (as I live in one and visit the other quite often, as my brother lives there).

Michigan has a large african american population in Detroit, but they simply don't have the facilities, programs, etc. to churn out elite athletes and many don't have the parental guidance to help them, as 80% of kids in detroit come from single parent households. The population in detroit are also located in one section of detroit, not in the downtown Detroit area, which has been transformed and now has high price lofts, high rises, etc

Illinois is almost a carbon copy of detroit, but they have a much larger, much more high end downtown. In Illinois, they have the southside of Chicago and the West side of Chicago, where the african american population live. Growing up in those areas, you are more worried about making it out alive than dreaming about being a football star. Most use athletics as a way to get out of those areas, but programs to help them excel are few and far between. To put in perspective about the gun violence in just the southside of Chicago (not all of Chicago) -- last year, the south side of Chicago has 18 murders in 24 hours.

What is readily available to these kids are basketball courts. It is free, it is something they can do with friends. They can do it in the winter time inside schools or the YMCA.

Thanks for the reply guys. I understand the urban issue but only to a certain extent. And the poverty discrepancy is real. Hoops, Soccer, etc seem to be more the choice of poorer countries, cities, etc. I equate Detroit, Chicago, NYC, etc to Houston and DFW. Until this year, it had been FOREVER since an inner city school played in a state championship football game in Texas...much less won one. This year Austin LBJ and Dallas South Oak Cliff both made it to Jerry's World with SOC winning it all in their division. Again, I get that issue.

Here's what I don't get. We do have SOME good football players that have come from the inner city schools. Proportionately, not even close but some none the less. Our high school football factories are mainly in the more affluent suburbs of the cities. Don't those urban places in the North have similar suburbs? A lot of the DFW and Houston suburbs are populated by what many would consider middle to upper income African Americans. In DFW alone you have places like Aledo, Southlake Carroll, the Denton schools, the Arlington schools, the Mansfield schools, Euless Trinity, Allen, Duncanville, DeSoto, Lancaster, etc. Houston has similar ones and here is something that is wacky about one of those Houston suburban school districts regarding the realignment that just came out two weeks ago. It is conceivable that the 6A state championship could be played by two teams from the SAME INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT!

2022-24 6A Realignment

Texas has 32 6A districts in football. 8 each in Regions 1-4. 1-8 in Region 1, 9-16 in Region 2, 17-24 in Region 3 and 25-32 in Region 4. Cypress Fairbanks ISD in suburban Houston has 10 of those 6A schools. 7 are in District 16, Region 2. 3 are in District 17, Region 3. The playoff brackets wouldn't have some of those schools meet until the finals if one of the seven and one of the three actually made it all the way. Unlikely but possible.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

Thanks for the reply guys. I understand the urban issue but only to a certain extent. And the poverty discrepancy is real. Hoops, Soccer, etc seem to be more the choice of poorer countries, cities, etc. I equate Detroit, Chicago, NYC, etc to Houston and DFW. Until this year, it had been FOREVER since an inner city school played in a state championship football game in Texas...much less won one. This year Austin LBJ and Dallas South Oak Cliff both made it to Jerry's World with SOC winning it all in their division. Again, I get that issue.

Here's what I don't get. We do have SOME good football players that have come from the inner city schools. Proportionately, not even close but some none the less. Our high school football factories are mainly in the more affluent suburbs of the cities. Don't those urban places in the North have similar suburbs? A lot of the DFW and Houston suburbs are populated by what many would consider middle to upper income African Americans. In DFW alone you have places like Aledo, Southlake Carroll, the Denton schools, the Arlington schools, the Mansfield schools, Euless Trinity, Allen, Duncanville, DeSoto, Lancaster, etc. Houston has similar ones and here is something that is wacky about one of those Houston suburban school districts regarding the realignment that just came out two weeks ago. It is conceivable that the 6A state championship could be played by two teams from the SAME INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT!

2022-24 6A Realignment

Texas has 32 6A districts in football. 8 each in Regions 1-4. 1-8 in Region 1, 9-16 in Region 2, 17-24 in Region 3 and 25-32 in Region 4. Cypress Fairbanks ISD in suburban Houston has 10 of those 6A schools. 7 are in District 16, Region 2. 3 are in District 17, Region 3. The playoff brackets wouldn't have some of those schools meet until the finals if one of the seven and one of the three actually made it all the way. Unlikely but possible.

The inner city in Detroit has two schools where essentially they recruit all the quality players to. Cass Tech and Detroit King. One of Cass Tech's coaches left and went to Belleville HS and he uses the same recruiting to stack their roster.

I went to see my friend's son play in Allen, TX -- and it was like watching a completely different game than high school football in Michigan. If you put the #1 team in Texas against the #1 team in Michigan -- they would absolutely blow them out. I bet it would be a running clock in the 2nd half.

 

[Illustrious Potentate]

The inner city in Detroit has two schools where essentially they recruit all the quality players to. Cass Tech and Detroit King. One of Cass Tech's coaches left and went to Belleville HS and he uses the same recruiting to stack their roster.

I went to see my friend's son play in Allen, TX -- and it was like watching a completely different game than high school football in Michigan. If you put the #1 team in Texas against the #1 team in Michigan -- they would absolutely blow them out. I bet it would be a running clock in the 2nd half.

I’d take a team of Florida 2 stars over a team of Midwest and northeaster 4 stars