So anyhow, FSU got to duck playing two elite teams in Ohio State and michigan, and instead got to play LSU (I mean, it's Brian Kelly, perhaps the worst big game coach of this century) as their "marquee matchup". Penn State vs. FSU would've probably been the proper bowl matchup for a Jordan Travis-led FSU team, and they might have been able to keep it close with PSU.
You've pointed out how tough road games can be and also pointed out that Duke was good earlier this year. ND was the only team to beat Duke at full strength before Riley fucked his leg up, and that was the week after ND got physically beat up by OSU. Then the following week they had another road game at night against Louisville and got caught looking ahead to USC (which was their 4th straight primetime ranked game in a row). I don't put much stock into the Louisville game considering how we saw them get murdered by the same 3-9 Pitt team that ND beat by 51. ND played an actually tough schedule this year (unlike anyone in the ACC), so they were bound to drop a game against a lower level opponent. It's the same reason why we've seen OSU drop games to Purdue or Bama drop games to A&M.
Anyhow, happy to help you learn some football Simple Jimmy.