Ohtani’s value just took a big hit

Illustrious Potentate

Illustrious Potentate

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UCL tear, won’t pitch again this year. Terrible timing for the guy. Already had one Tommy John surgery, and a second is usually a career killer for a pitcher, hopefully he can avoid having it this time
 
Stick him in RF and there’s be 20 teams falling over each other to sign him.
 
I was just talking to someone about how I don't really get how anyone could ever pay the next contract that people are talking about. $600 mil+. I get he brings another market to the table and a lot of money with him. But he's been having nagging arm and side injuries all season. And now potentially a second TJ surgery which is historically a killer. Going to pay a guy like he's worth two players. Well when he gets hurt, which is highly likely for pitchers and he already has a history, you're now without your top hitter and pitcher.

With that said, he's been battling these nagging injuries this year and still putting up insane numbers.
 
RubinRock said:
I was just talking to someone about how I don't really get how anyone could ever pay the next contract that people are talking about. $600 mil+. I get he brings another market to the table and a lot of money with him. But he's been having nagging arm and side injuries all season. And now potentially a second TJ surgery which is historically a killer. Going to pay a guy like he's worth two players. Well when he gets hurt, which is highly likely for pitchers and he already has a history, you're now without your top hitter and pitcher.

With that said, he's been battling these nagging injuries this year and still putting up insane numbers.
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If he never pitches again, he’s still an elite bat.

The Angels grossly mismanaged him this year. Been dealing with arm fatigue for weeks and they just kept pitching. Fried gets a forearm strain and gets shutdown for months to avoid that
 
Mofo said:
Stick him in RF and there’s be 20 teams falling over each other to sign him.
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Has he even played in the field at the Major league level? He’s gonna get signed, and signed to a good contract, but this ACL year is probably gonna cost him at least 200 million
 
Illustrious Potentate said:
If he never pitches again, he’s still an elite bat.

The Angels grossly mismanaged him this year. Been dealing with arm fatigue for weeks and they just kept pitching. Fried gets a forearm strain and gets shutdown for months to avoid that
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Exactly, that gives him a high floor for performance/on-field value. Ownership in particular likes that kind of thing.
 
DragonFromTo said:
Exactly, that gives him a high floor for performance/on-field value. Ownership in particular likes that kind of thing.
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It’s still gonna likely cost him around 200 million.

If he does need TJ, even as a position player, he’ll still miss significant time last season. Think Harper missed around 2 months and his recovery was considered remarkably fast
 
Illustrious Potentate said:
Has he even played in the field at the Major league level? He’s gonna get signed, and signed to a good contract, but this ACL year is probably gonna cost him at least 200 million
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Probably not quite like Wander Franco has but I bet he has found a few nice ladies to peel that yellow banana of his :noidea: :wink:
 
Illustrious Potentate said:
It’s still gonna likely cost him around 200 million.

If he does need TJ, even as a position player, he’ll still miss significant time last season. Think Harper missed around 2 months and his recovery was considered remarkably fast
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Oh I agree, the specific timing of it is going to cost him for sure especially since it is his 2nd TJ. If said injury was just a looming threat/possibility rather than current and present he'd do a lot better and it would be a lot easier to sell to an owner.
 
Illustrious Potentate said:
Has he even played in the field at the Major league level?
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5-10 times a couple years ago. I think he started his career in the outfield in Japan too. The guy still sits atop the top hitters' stats for this year, despite not being an "everyday" player.
Illustrious Potentate said:
He’s gonna get signed, and signed to a good contract, but this ACL year is probably gonna cost him at least 200 million
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Maybe. The smart play is to avoid a guy on his second Tommy John surgery (if it comes to that), but there are always a good 6-7 really stupid teams in MLB willing to overpay.
 
DragonFromTo said:
Oh I agree, the specific timing of it is going to cost him for sure especially since it is his 2nd TJ. If said injury was just a looming threat/possibility rather than current and present he'd do a lot better and it would be a lot easier to sell to an owner.
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He’s probably still gonna get a nice chunk of change, but that record breaking deal is off the table now IMO.

Plus he’s getting close to 30
 
Illustrious Potentate said:
If he never pitches again, he’s still an elite bat.

The Angels grossly mismanaged him this year. Been dealing with arm fatigue for weeks and they just kept pitching. Fried gets a forearm strain and gets shutdown for months to avoid that
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Oh I get hes still one of the best bats in the league and gonna get paid for it. But if his pitching is in jeopardy, or even slightly questioned, I don't see how anyone can justify the enormous figures that were being thrown out there. Someone will overpay for him tho.

But look at the market for top 1b or DHs.
Olson: 8 year 168mil
Freddie: 6 year 162mil
Goldschmidt: 5 year 130 mil
Stanton: 13 year $325 mil (and its been a pretty big mistake)

A big if, but if he requires a second surgery, given the history of pitchers after two surgeries, I think it would be crazy to go into the 350-400mil+ range. Even as an elite batter, his value has plummeted.
 
RubinRock said:
Oh I get hes still one of the best bats in the league and gonna get paid for it. But if his pitching is in jeopardy, or even slightly questioned, I don't see how anyone can justify the enormous figures that were being thrown out there. Someone will overpay for him tho.

But look at the market for top 1b or DHs.
Olson: 8 year 168mil
Freddie: 6 year 162mil
Goldschmidt: 5 year 130 mil
Stanton: 13 year $325 mil (and its been a pretty big mistake)

A big if, but if he requires a second surgery, given the history of pitchers after two surgeries, I think it would be crazy to go into the 350-400mil+ range. Even as an elite batter, his value has plummeted.
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I agree, plus him being close to 30 now.

I think the Dodgers are smart enough to not overspend. He’ll either be an Angel or a Yankee next year
 
Mofo said:
5-10 times a couple years ago. I think he started his career in the outfield in Japan too. The guy still sits atop the top hitters' stats for this year, despite not being an "everyday" player.

Maybe. The smart play is to avoid a guy on his second Tommy John surgery (if it comes to that), but there are always a good 6-7 really stupid teams in MLB willing to overpay.
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That's the whole thing though, you avoid signing the 2nd TJ surgery guy because you're worried that he might never pitch again and you might get zero for your dollar. But what if that pitcher has a .900+ OPS batting parachute to fall with? It's a little easier to take a chance on a pitcher with extreme risk knowing that even if it turns out that he can't pitch anymore he will probably still be able to hit for you.
 
DragonFromTo said:
That's the whole thing though, you avoid signing the 2nd TJ surgery guy because you're worried that he might never pitch again and you might get zero for your dollar. But what if that pitcher has a .900+ OPS batting parachute to fall with? It's a little easier to take a chance on a pitcher with extreme risk knowing that even if it turns out that he can't pitch anymore he will probably still be able to hit for you.
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This is why I think he'll probably manage to get a huge contract with some dumb, Angels-like team.
 
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