PAC News

[Volbound1700]

meh. im less convinced now that any schools are moving anytime soon than i was last summer.
i feel like the 4corner schools will stay.
The Big 10 doesnt even have a commissioner at this point so all that seems like a moot point until they do. I dont think anyone with any amount of power has enough to pull OR and UW in for now.

I definitely don't see the B1G expanding until they get a commissioner but I will say there will be heavy energy with the TV contract sucking so bad for the Pac12. I just don't see it continuing with that deal very long. I think NCAA Tournament in Basketball is also a major distraction. I expect things won't get interesting until later this year.

 

[Wild Turkey]

I definitely don't see the B1G expanding until they get a commissioner but I will say there will be heavy energy with the TV contract sucking so bad for the Pac12. I just don't see it continuing with that deal very long. I think NCAA Tournament in Basketball is also a major distraction. I expect things won't get interesting until later this year.

There are some big ifs out there:

1. If the PAC is serious about their mid April deadline then their commissioner could get sent packing.

2. If Oregon and Washington won’t sign GORs without outs it’s doubtful a network will fully commit.

3. If they can’t do better than the B1G in contracts there is no reason for anyone to stick around if they have doubts.

Everything hinges on obtaining a contract and the conference members keep putting obstacles in the way. I wouldn’t be shocked if talks start in May.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

There are some big ifs out there:

1. If the PAC is serious about their mid April deadline then their commissioner could get sent packing.

2. If Oregon and Washington won’t sign GORs without outs it’s doubtful a network will fully commit.

3. If they can’t do better than the B1G in contracts there is no reason for anyone to stick around if they have doubts.

Everything hinges on obtaining a contract and the conference members keep putting obstacles in the way. I wouldn’t be shocked if talks start in May.

Agree on all this, but I think you meant B12 in no. 3, not B1G.

At the end of the day, based on what is happening I think it will play out like this:

- They will get roughly B12 numbers, and OU and UW agree to stay for about 5 years, and the PAC is good until late 2020s.

- As you state, OU and UW can't or won't commit and the corner schools, especially Colo and Ariz say screw this and move to the B12.

It's all on UO and UW right now.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

The Athletic had a great article with a ton of good data and info in it. As it pertains to this thread:

They went on to point this out:

All of which is why Bruce, Max Olson and I spent part of “The Audible” this week discussing a more radical consolidation idea former ESPN president John Skipper proposed: Merging the ACC and Pac-12 — preferably in football only. They still wouldn’t be the SEC or Big Ten in terms of TV revenue ($60-plus million), but the schools would make more than they do now (around $30 million), for several reasons: 1) The ACC would be able to blow up its outdated ESPN deal, 2) The ACC Network would add a whole lot of in-market subscriber fees in cities like San Francisco and Phoenix, and 3) You’d create more high-end matchups the networks would pay for, like Oregon-Clemson or Washington-Miami.

It’s drastic, but it’s the only form of “consolidation” that really makes sense for either league if the goal is to add value, not bodies.

I kind of like this, even if I think it is unlikely:

- It's for football only ... kind of like that ... the travel for that is more manageable. All other sports would stay regional.

- The ACC/PAC would get them money between where the PAC/ACC/B12 are now and the B1G/SEC are.

- Most importantly, they would get to blow up the contract with ESPN. Oregon, Washington, FSU, and Clemson might be able to negotiate a bigger share, or better they put some sort of incentive system in place that might incent other schools - VaTech, UNC, Miami, Utah, etc. to get better, spend more, so as to get more money.

- The GOR might be able to be reduced from 2036 to something more reasonable.

Off the cuff, from a scheduling perspective, you could do something where you play 6 games against those in your region, 3 outside the region. That would help with travel (but see below).

Finally, before people bring up travel distances, consider this:

- Tuscon to Pullman - 1,333 miles
- Miami to Syracuse - 1,415 miles
- Tuscon to Atlanta - 1,737

The travel horses have already left the barn for both conferences. They are flying charter, so going coast to coast isn't a big deal ... they already travel great distances in both conferences.

I previously kind of poo-pood this thought, but it makes more sense, if they can do that now. I am not sure how much sense it makes once the PAC signs a deal.

Keep in mind academically, the two conferences are fairly well aligned, too. Standford, Cal, UNC, UVA, Duke, etc.

 

[Wild Turkey]

Agree on all this, but I think you meant B12 in no. 3, not B1G.

At the end of the day, based on what is happening I think it will play out like this:

- They will get roughly B12 numbers, and OU and UW agree to stay for about 5 years, and the PAC is good until late 2020s.

- As you state, OU and UW can't or won't commit and the corner schools, especially Colo and Ariz say screw this and move to the B12.

It's all on UO and UW right now.

You are correct I meant B12 and I agree is all on UO and UW.

I do think another factor is going to come into play as well and that is when the contract comes in at Big 12 levels I'm betting both Oregon and Washington make a push for unequal revenue distribution. If that happens it might be the final straw and at least one school will say screw it and dominoes could fall.

 

[Volbound1700]

There are some big ifs out there:

1. If the PAC is serious about their mid April deadline then their commissioner could get sent packing.

2. If Oregon and Washington won’t sign GORs without outs it’s doubtful a network will fully commit.

3. If they can’t do better than the B1G in contracts there is no reason for anyone to stick around if they have doubts.

Everything hinges on obtaining a contract and the conference members keep putting obstacles in the way. I wouldn’t be shocked if talks start in May.

They have basically two options right now that we know of, stick together and get a new contract, or some of the teams try to go to the Big12. Several teams are probably holding out for the B1G (Oregon and Washington) especially.

It seems like the "four corner" schools are not on board with heading to the B1G as much as originally touted.

However, their contract is definitely weaker than anyone and eventually it s going to pop and these teams are going to make tough choices. I think a lot of them are in denial at the moment of the situation.

I think the B1G long-term plan is probably to add Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Notre Dame (dream list). I don't know if there is any traction right now towards that or not.

Overall, the Big12 beat them to a new contract and beat them early on by adding some G5 teams that made Financial Sense. The G5 pool is a lot weaker for the Pac12 and the TV Contract situation is not working out. To me, it makes sense for schools to go to the Big12 but I don't see indication that this is going on right now. There just isn't any teams that make sense for the Pac12 to add to drive value. Best option is probably San Diego State to get that presence in Southern California but even SD State is probably not adding very much, if anything at all from TV Contract standpoint.

Boise State may add something but Cal-Stanford likely still hate their academics and Boise State definitely doesn't replace what Pac12 lost by any means.

 

[Thiefery]

The Athletic had a great article with a ton of good data and info in it. As it pertains to this thread:

They went on to point this out:

All of which is why Bruce, Max Olson and I spent part of “The Audible” this week discussing a more radical consolidation idea former ESPN president John Skipper proposed: Merging the ACC and Pac-12 — preferably in football only. They still wouldn’t be the SEC or Big Ten in terms of TV revenue ($60-plus million), but the schools would make more than they do now (around $30 million), for several reasons: 1) The ACC would be able to blow up its outdated ESPN deal, 2) The ACC Network would add a whole lot of in-market subscriber fees in cities like San Francisco and Phoenix, and 3) You’d create more high-end matchups the networks would pay for, like Oregon-Clemson or Washington-Miami.

It’s drastic, but it’s the only form of “consolidation” that really makes sense for either league if the goal is to add value, not bodies.

I kind of like this, even if I think it is unlikely:

- It's for football only ... kind of like that ... the travel for that is more manageable. All other sports would stay regional.

- The ACC/PAC would get them money between where the PAC/ACC/B12 are now and the B1G/SEC are.

- Most importantly, they would get to blow up the contract with ESPN. Oregon, Washington, FSU, and Clemson might be able to negotiate a bigger share, or better they put some sort of incentive system in place that might incent other schools - VaTech, UNC, Miami, Utah, etc. to get better, spend more, so as to get more money.

- The GOR might be able to be reduced from 2036 to something more reasonable.

Off the cuff, from a scheduling perspective, you could do something where you play 6 games against those in your region, 3 outside the region. That would help with travel (but see below).

Finally, before people bring up travel distances, consider this:

- Tuscon to Pullman - 1,333 miles
- Miami to Syracuse - 1,415 miles
- Tuscon to Atlanta - 1,737

The travel horses have already left the barn for both conferences. They are flying charter, so going coast to coast isn't a big deal ... they already travel great distances in both conferences.

I previously kind of poo-pood this thought, but it makes more sense, if they can do that now. I am not sure how much sense it makes once the PAC signs a deal.

Keep in mind academically, the two conferences are fairly well aligned, too. Standford, Cal, UNC, UVA, Duke, etc.

now i know why they canned skipper...

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

You are correct I meant B12 and I agree is all on UO and UW.

I do think another factor is going to come into play as well and that is when the contract comes in at Big 12 levels I'm betting both Oregon and Washington make a push for unequal revenue distribution. If that happens it might be the final straw and at least one school will say screw it and dominoes could fall.

Good point on the uneven distribution. They might overplay their hand that way.

Great CBS article on the interview with the Ariz President. Dude said what no one else was saying but we all knew.

Arizona president talks keeping Pac-12 together, TV deal expectations, deadlines, Big 12 interest and more

In an extensive conversation, Robert Robbins explains the state of the Pac-12 may not be what it seems

www.cbssports.com

 

[Volbound1700]

You are correct I meant B12 and I agree is all on UO and UW.

I do think another factor is going to come into play as well and that is when the contract comes in at Big 12 levels I'm betting both Oregon and Washington make a push for unequal revenue distribution. If that happens it might be the final straw and at least one school will say screw it and dominoes could fall.

Yeah, there is definitely logic to both the posts by @WhosYourDawggy and yourself. I posted and read after (my fault) because you do present a 3rd scenario to my post #326.

Perhaps somekind of hybrid merger with ACC would work. ACC has shitty contract so it is a way for them to escape and the two joined at the hip would generate more money than a Pac12 as it stands (or expanded) and joining the Big12. Still isn't B1G or SEC money.

I think Oregon and Washington are holding out for B1G though. I am still not sure if that is going to happen or not. I do think there is a headache to having UCLA and USC on an island and a West Coast division could drive overall value for B1G...

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

now i know why they canned skipper...

Stop and think through it. Something wild like that is the only thing the ACC can do. There really isn't anything else. I know it won't happen, but doing football only like that makes some sense.

 

[Thiefery]

Stop and think through it. Something wild like that is the only thing the ACC can do. There really isn't anything else. I know it won't happen, but doing football only like that makes some sense.

If they did that, I think that gives leverage to FSU/Clemson to leave much earlier. BC vs ASU or UA in October isn't grabbing anyones attention.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

If they did that, I think that gives leverage to FSU/Clemson to leave much earlier. BC vs ASU or UA in October isn't grabbing anyones attention..

I agree ... I mentioned that it would open the GOR up before 2036. But what's more important ... hanging onto Clemson and FSU, or making the ACC profitable. Do the latter and you won't have to deal with the former. Check out the quote I made in another thread about the SEC not wanting to expand more. I think trying to make the ACC more viable is the way to go. If you lose UO, UW, CU, and FSU after that GOR runs, so be it. You tried.

 

[Volbound1700]

I agree ... I mentioned that it would open the GOR up before 2036. But what's more important ... hanging onto Clemson and FSU, or making the ACC profitable. Do the latter and you won't have to deal with the former. Check out the quote I made in another thread about the SEC not wanting to expand more. I think trying to make the ACC more viable is the way to go. If you lose UO, UW, CU, and FSU after that GOR runs, so be it. You tried.

That and even if Clemson/FSU are given the blank check to leave, does anyone take them right now?

The key brand that can totally change realignment is Notre Dame. If Notre Dame decides to go to the B1G, ACC is dead. If Notre Dame joins the ACC or jumps in on this merger, there might be a viable 3rd Power Conference still around.

A league with Oregon, Washington, Clemson, FSU, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Arizona, etc. might actually be viable enough to stay in the hunt. Both the ACC and Pac12 would have to leave teams behind if they formed this new league.

 

[Thiefery]

A league with Oregon, Washington, Clemson, FSU, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Arizona, etc. might actually be viable enough to stay in the hunt. Both the ACC and Pac12 would have to leave teams behind if they formed this new league.

That's better than the new Big12.. however like you said ND would be key here and I don't see them trying to save the ACC.. they rather continue what they have with the ACC, but they can always pivot elsewhere if need be.

But if they decided to give them assurances for something like this to happen.. how much would this merger command? I'm assuming ESPN will have first dibs.. 60 mil per school do the trick? or do they want as close to 100 mil per school avg like the BiG and SEC schools will be getting in the future?

 

[Volbound1700]

That's better than the new Big12.. however like you said ND would be key here and I don't see them trying to save the ACC.. they rather continue what they have with the ACC, but they can always pivot elsewhere if need be.

But if they decided to give them assurances for something like this to happen.. how much would this merger command? I'm assuming ESPN will have first dibs.. 60 mil per school do the trick? or do they want as close to 100 mil per school avg like the BiG and SEC schools will be getting in the future?

Well Notre Dame has bucked the trend so far. Notre Dame stands to make more money by joining the B1G but has said no.

I think the reason Notre Dame has stayed independent is their brand. I think their brand would diminish (and lose value) in the B1G over a long-term path. Michigan-Ohio State have more resources and would beat Notre Dame pretty often on the field (more than ND beats them). As a result, Notre Dame's special spot right now would be lost as they would become another B1G team chasing Michigan-Ohio State. Similar situation as both Nebraska and Penn State who have both become less relevant as B1G members despite the bigger checks.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

That's better than the new Big12.. however like you said ND would be key here and I don't see them trying to save the ACC.. they rather continue what they have with the ACC, but they can always pivot elsewhere if need be.

But if they decided to give them assurances for something like this to happen.. how much would this merger command? I'm assuming ESPN will have first dibs.. 60 mil per school do the trick? or do they want as close to 100 mil per school avg like the BiG and SEC schools will be getting in the future?

ND would fit well into that new ACC/PAC conference. They have the academic profile, and geographically they are in the best location.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Well Notre Dame has bucked the trend so far. Notre Dame stands to make more money by joining the B1G but has said no.

I think the reason Notre Dame has stayed independent is their brand. I think their brand would diminish (and lose value) in the B1G over a long-term path. Michigan-Ohio State have more resources and would beat Notre Dame pretty often on the field (more than ND beats them). As a result, Notre Dame's special spot right now would be lost as they would become another B1G team chasing Michigan-Ohio State. Similar situation as both Nebraska and Penn State who have both become less relevant as B1G members despite the bigger checks.

If ND can get the $60 million in TV money, they will almost always get a CFP share which can add $10-$20 million more, they will be happy to be independent with $70-$90 million per year.

 

[OlyDuck]

please stop calling Oregon OU

 

[Wild Turkey]

Good point on the uneven distribution. They might overplay their hand that way.

Great CBS article on the interview with the Ariz President. Dude said what no one else was saying but we all knew.

Arizona president talks keeping Pac-12 together, TV deal expectations, deadlines, Big 12 interest and more

In an extensive conversation, Robert Robbins explains the state of the Pac-12 may not be what it seems

www.cbssports.com

That was interesting.

I'm not sure I've ever heard a president give as much information as he did in that article and I'm not so sure he wasn't doing it to send some messages:

1. He expects a new deal soon and in the 50mm range
2. AZ and ASU are a package deal
3. More defections and the league is done
4. Multiple schools have had discussions with the Big 12

He sugar-coated those gems with positivity for the PAC conference but just mentioning those things at all is pretty interesting.

 

[Wild Turkey]

please stop calling Oregon OU

OU is that school in Eugene correct?