TLDR - fuck you, read it, it's good stuff.
I am working on an article for Rivals about this, but Clemson and FSU should be working within the ACC to determine how CFP shares will be divided within the ACC beginning in 2026. That should be their endgame. Rough outline:
- In 2026, the 11-game CFP will go from earning around $800 million per year, to $2 billion per year. The 4-team CFP made between $500 and $600 million per year. The 11-game CFP in 2024 and 2025 will make around $800 million.
- Currently, $90 million is given to the G5 to split. Small amounts, about $4-$6 million are given to the conferences of the 4 teams that get in for expenses. The rest is evenly divided between the P5 conferences. The key here is that each conference can then decide how to distribute it, and most do it evenly. FSU and Clemson will want to change that and here is why:
A couple of major things are going to happen:
- The money is going to more than triple from the 4-team, 3-game CFP. Huge bucks.
- The G6 will get a cut like they did before.
- The P4 distribution will be based on "shares" as they do for March Madness. As an example, let's say it's $2 billion, and they cut out $200 million for expenses and the G6 cut. That leaves $1.8 billion for the P4. The shares will work something like this:
* 12 shares for everyone that gets in.
* 8 shares for the teams that get byes or win round 1
* 4 shares for the teams that win round 2
* 2 shares for the teams that win the semis
* 1 share for the NC
That's a total of 27 shares - that means a share is worth about $67 million. The conference of a team that gets in and loses gets $67 million for the 1 share everyone gets. For the winners of round 1 and the byes, they will earn their conference $134 million. The NC will get 5 shares, or $335 million. If the SEC had two teams get to the finals, they would get $603 million (9 shares). Let's say they had another team lose in first round (1 share), another in the second round (2 shares), that's 3 more shares for the SEC that would now get $804 million for 12 shares. That's $50 million per team. Now you can see where the numbers come from when I have posted that the SEC will be in the $115 million range per team ... $60-$70 million in TV, $45-55 million in CFP money.
This is based off what March Madness does. There is more complexity to it, but there is more money in the CFP - $2 billion v. $1.2 billion for March Madness. And, in March Madness, there are way more teams and games, and therefore far more shares - something like 120 shares v. 27 shares. So, shares are worth a lot more in the CFP.
So, FSU and Clemson, the teams in the ACC that are most likely to get into the CFP should be negotiating for the ACC distribution to be given mostly to those who earn it. Let's say they each win a game and then lose. That's 2 shares each, or $134 million each, or $268 million for the ACC. If you distributed that across 16 teams, that would be $16.75 million which puts the ACC schools at about $45-$55 million, the numbers I have posted in the past. But, if I were Clemson and FSU I would say, fuck that. Let's give all the teams 60% of the total share revenue, or about $10 million each. Then the teams that got in the CFP get the other 40%. So, $160 million would go to all teams, including Clemson and FSU, leaving $108 million or $54 million for FSU and Clemson. They also got $10 million each team got, meaning they would get $64 million for getting into the CFP and winning a game. Now, they are in the $90 million range and can compete. This will incentivize other schools in the ACC to invest in their programs, and in recruiting. Basically, if you want SEC money in the ACC, you better start getting into the CFP. Schools that could do that are Miami, FSU, Clemson, Wake, UNC, NCSU, VaTech, Lousiville, and the Nerds. This would also have the benefit of making the ACC more competitive, and they could be ready to sign a bigger contract in 2036.
These amounts in the ACC are all hypotheticals, of course, Maybe they give more to all schools because that is the agreement now. But if they want to try to really get SEC money and get 2-3 teams in per year, they need to give schools a reason to invest.
So slimy
