Phil Knight Cold Calling The SEC and B1G

WhosYourDawggy said:
I wrote a 3,200 word article on this that got published as Analysis by Rivals. I'll post it here later this week.

I don't think UNC comes close to moving the needle to $80-$110 million per year. So, no, even if there was no ACC GOR I don't think any of the more likely candidates - Clemson, OkSU, FSU, Miami and UNC would get added. Those are the 5 that would move the needle the most that are in the SEC footprint and I think they stick to their footprint.
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I think both the SEC and B1G would be done at 20 each if they expand again.

18 & 22 as numbers don’t really work well so the best options are 20 and 24 but 24 would be extremely difficult to schedule and you play everyone at least in a 3 year period (forget home and home).

There aren’t 4 teams in the PAC that either want so this is going to come down to ND and the ACC (Washington and Oregon still have a shot but it decreases). The B1G will factor in AAU so the teams could be bubble revenue teams for them to take.

The next move will be between the PAC and Big 12. Not sure there will be defections either way but if there are we should know on the next few weeks.
 
Wild Turkey said:
The next move will be between the PAC and Big 12. Not sure there will be defections either way but if there are we should know on the next few weeks.
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It looks less likely that there will be a straight-up merger of the conferences, given what the SEC said about sticking with 16 teams.

Because, you know, everyone kinda copies the SEC
 
Deep Creek said:
Which teams left in either the PAC or the Big 12 do you consider 3 blue bloods and 4 programs with national brands. Outside Kansas and Arizona basketball, I can't find any considered that.
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I didn't mean they had those blue bloods left in the Big 12 and PAC -- i meant 3 blue bloods and 4 national brands left those conferences (OU, Texas, USC, UCLA)
 
Red_Alert said:
It was no mistake.
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The only mistake was made by the B1G taking on Nebraska as the token poor academic school for the conference. The B1G didn't realize the athletic programs for Nebraska were going to try and match the academic standing of the school with their performances.

Hopefully Kevin Warren is on the phone trying to swing a deal to swap Nebraska for Oregon, so we can pick up a different poor academic school that brings something to the conference other than complaining about their schedule being too tough. :beer2:
 
Wild Turkey said:
I think both the SEC and B1G would be done at 20 each if they expand again.

18 & 22 as numbers don’t really work well so the best options are 20 and 24 but 24 would be extremely difficult to schedule and you play everyone at least in a 3 year period (forget home and home).

There aren’t 4 teams in the PAC that either want so this is going to come down to ND and the ACC (Washington and Oregon still have a shot but it decreases). The B1G will factor in AAU so the teams could be bubble revenue teams for them to take.

The next move will be between the PAC and Big 12. Not sure there will be defections either way but if there are we should know on the next few weeks.
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22 actually works pretty well with a 3-6-6-6 format. 3 permanent rivals, the other 6 teams rotate through every 3 years.

I just can't see 12 teams who can drive enough worth for now.
 
OregonDucks said:
I am not concerned at all right now. No way Oregon is on the outside looking in at the end of all this. We are still getting top recruits. I was also driving around yesterday and realized the U of O is simply too big of a school to be left out, as I was reminded with seeing the multiple cars with the Oregon Ducks themed license plates.
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There is an old story, I forget his name, the old ship captain who said "I have not yet begun to fight" even as his boat was sinking.

OD's optimism even outdoes that story!
 
OregonDucks said:
I am not concerned at all right now. No way Oregon is on the outside looking in at the end of all this. We are still getting top recruits. I was also driving around yesterday and realized the U of O is simply too big of a school to be left out, as I was reminded with seeing the multiple cars with the Oregon Ducks themed license plates.
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Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan and Central Michigan all have themed license plates and you will see them all over the state, but they aren't getting invited to a super conference.

Oregon is a tweener -- The only option would really be if the B1G picks them up, as the SEC isn't adding someone out west, especially if they don't bring value with their tv market, but Oregon's academics holds them back. It is possible though, as we took in Nebraska and Rutgers who are ranked much worse than Oregon. Rutgers brought in the NY TV market though, Nebraska brought in...............a really good women's volleyball team.

Tell Phil Knight to get on the phone and try to swing a trade for Nebraska to join the B1G?
 
OregonDucks said:
I am fully aware USC doesn't want us in the B1G right now. They took UCLA with them to further keep us out of the So Cal market in recruiting. But in the end, the B1G will make the choice not USC.
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The B1G took UCLA with USC to secure the LA television market share, which is the 2nd largest TV market in the country. You think very highly of Oregon if you think they had anything to do with the decision.

In all honesty -- Utah may be the better choice if the B1G expands after seeing what they did to Oregon last year :)
 
NewPhoneWhoDis said:
The B1G took UCLA with USC to secure the LA television market share, which is the 2nd largest TV market in the country. You think very highly of Oregon if you think they had anything to do with the decision.

In all honesty -- Utah may be the better choice if the B1G expands after seeing what they did to Oregon last year :)
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Sure. USC wanted to block Oregon from their footprint by inviting 14 new teams into it. Lol
 
Hu War Yu said:
It looks less likely that there will be a straight-up merger of the conferences, given what the SEC said about sticking with 16 teams.

Because, you know, everyone kinda copies the SEC
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I never saw the PAC and Big 12 merging anyway. They will either stay the same or one is going to cherry-pick the other.
 
NewPhoneWhoDis said:
The only mistake was made by the B1G taking on Nebraska as the token poor academic school for the conference. The B1G didn't realize the athletic programs for Nebraska were going to try and match the academic standing of the school with their performances.

Hopefully Kevin Warren is on the phone trying to swing a deal to swap Nebraska for Oregon, so we can pick up a different poor academic school that brings something to the conference other than complaining about their schedule being too tough. :beer2:
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For a person that brings this up and knocks Nebraska every other post you sure don’t have enough pride in your school to post an avi. You really come off as an OCD fixating doofus.
 
NewPhoneWhoDis said:
The B1G took UCLA with USC to secure the LA television market share, which is the 2nd largest TV market in the country. You think very highly of Oregon if you think they had anything to do with the decision.

In all honesty -- Utah may be the better choice if the B1G expands after seeing what they did to Oregon last year :)
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Not really. The LA television market adds about $20 million per year to the B1Gs revenue. With the next contract that will almost be a rounding error. They took USC because they have the potential to add to their TV deal, they could generate very large 4 million viewer games (although they haven't in the past decade), and they might add CFP money if they get back to their glory. The LA market helps to justify USC and UCLA, but not as much as you think .
 
NewPhoneWhoDis said:
I'm confused as to who isn't raising up by moving to the B1G? USC? The Big 12 teams were already getting $30 million a year less than B1G teams WITH USC and UCLA. Exactly how are they going to sell the PAC 12 television rights when you remove the 2nd largest television market in the US?

Same with the Big 12 -- you take out OU and Texas, you've just lost your flagship programs and the biggest draws in your conference.
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Any team available that joins the B1G would make more money. The issue is whether any of them bring enough juice to justify being added.

This is what I said that you said confused you:

I don't have time to get the graph, but it showed 2027 dollars with the SEC at $115 million per team, the B1G at $110 million, and then the other 3 at about $52-$56 million. Not sure the B1G move raises them up that much, and could even slow them down. UCLA is dead weight. What will be interesting is what happens to the PAC and B12. Let's say the B12 absorbs 4-6 of the PAC. Then the PAC is really dead mane walking, moving back to G5 levels even with Oregon and Washington. ACC still stays the same, at 50% of the Big Boys. The B12 likely jumps up to about $60 million per team.

Before the USC/UCLA move, and after the OU/TX move and B12 realignment, the B12, PAC, and ACC were projected to be making between $50-$56 million per year. I posted a graph somewhere on this site a while back. I was rounding the SEC and B1G to $100 million, and saying the ACC will get a little more than 50% of that. The real question is what happens to the B12 and the PAC now. If the B12 takes 4-6 teams from the PAC, they may increase their per team revenue. But the PAC would be destroyed. Even if they pick up Boise and some other G5 schools, they won't be at a P5 level. Assuming they can stay at P5 the Tiers would be SEC/B1G, then B12/ACC, then the PAC.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
Not really. The LA television market adds about $20 million per year to the B1Gs revenue. With the next contract that will almost be a rounding error. They took USC because they have the potential to add to their TV deal, they could generate very large 4 million viewer games (although they haven't in the past decade), and they might add CFP money if they get back to their glory. The LA market helps to justify USC and UCLA, but not as much as you think .
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I wonder how the Bowl lineup tie ins will be affected. Will the B1G get another tie-in at the expense of the PAC12?
 
Kburjr said:
I wonder how the Bowl lineup tie ins will be affected. Will the B1G get another tie-in at the expense of the PAC12?
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Yeah, that will be interesting. Not sure it makes too much money-wise. Takes a little shine off the Rose Bowl.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
Yeah, that will be interesting. Not sure it makes too much money-wise. Takes a little shine off the Rose Bowl.
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Outside the CFP, the Rose Bowl has the highest payout, I believe. I don't know if the PAC team really matters. How long has it been since USC or UCLA has Played in it?
 
Huskers4me said:
For a person that brings this up and knocks Nebraska every other post you sure don’t have enough pride in your school to post an avi. You really come off as an OCD fixating doofus.
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I'm a Michigan fan. Everyone here knows that. I didn't realize I had to post an avy to be part of the club😂
 
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