R.I.P Florida - St Pete

Tampa is still in the cone.

You can't just draw a line down the center of the cone and say that's where the eyewall will come ashore.

The entire cone is the margin of error.

I'd be gone!!


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Dolemite censored said:
Looks as if Lithium Ion batteries exposed to salt water can and will catch fire.

www.cbsnews.com

Florida fire marshal calls electric vehicles "ticking time bombs" amid Hurricane Milton flooding

Storm surge poses a fire hazard for vehicles with lithium-ion batteries, with dozens of blazes erupting after Helene.
www.cbsnews.com www.cbsnews.com
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Elon Musk Smoking GIF
 
I've been in Mag 6 and Mag 7 earthquakes and none of them were ever as destructive or deadly as hurricanes. A serious earthquake can last about a minute if that, then its done except for aftershocks.
 
Dolemite censored said:
I've been in Mag 6 and Mag 7 earthquakes and none of them were ever as destructive or deadly as hurricanes. A serious earthquake can last about a minute if that, then its done except for aftershocks.
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Regarding life and limb, I'd take a hurricane over a tornado though.

You have days of warning for a hurricane. You have minutes of warning (at best) for a tornado.
 
This is why I say even if you live well inland but lowland near a river or creek that you should evacuate.

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huskers1217 said:
Fuck.

Taking a turn north
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Think of it like this....

The center of circulation (eye) of a hurricane is like a top spinning on a table.

Blow on it even slightly and it's going to move it's direction. Thus the cone being a margin of error.
 
This is the mid-level windshear influence on Milton.

Not only will windshear disrupt convergence (i.e. it's ability to strengthen), it also has an influence on direction.

NOAA is saying NE at 17 mph now.

That supports the direction of the shear (pink lines). Where it makes landfall is anyone's guess. Thus the cone's margin of error.

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This is the deep level shear (red lines). It's moving east/west.

Which one will be more prominent?

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The latest cone shifted north.

Tampa's on higher alert than before.

Basically Sarasota to Tampa.

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Red_Alert said:
The latest cone shifted north.

Tampa's on higher alert than before.

Basically Sarasota to Tampa.

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It’s going to make landfall between Sarasota and North Port. Biggest storm surge will be Charlotte Harbor.
 
jjc2009 said:
The center line of the cone doesn’t mean shit. I’m looking at the radar. The eye is just wsw of Sarasota.
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I already said that about a page ago.

The cone is the cone. It's a margin of error.

But you're the expert, not NOAA. :facepalm:
 
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