Straight seeding model expected for 2025 CFP

Do you think the conferences are concerned about the possibility not having a single top sixteen team and being left out totally? Such happens with all but one G5 anyway.

I found this article interesting...in spite of it being too damn long. The SEC seems to not like the choice of nine conference games vs CFP spots. This guy took a deep look into how much more difficult the SEC schedules would be going to nine conference games/three permanent rivals.

CFP format
I think maybe for the B12 it might be getting completely left out. But for the others I think it’d be about not getting enough teams in. The B1G seems to be very for the 4-4-2-2-1-3 format to lock in AT MINIMUM 4 bids. It’s also why I haven’t seen any article say they like the 5+11 model.
 
I think maybe for the B12 it might be getting completely left out. But for the others I think it’d be about not getting enough teams in. The B1G seems to be very for the 4-4-2-2-1-3 format to lock in AT MINIMUM 4 bids. It’s also why I haven’t seen any article say they like the 5+11 model.
I can see the Big 12 getting completely left out because of parity, not winning meaningful OOC games and not having a definitive top. But Yormack and a couple of coaches said they “wanted to earn it on the field” as the reason for supporting the 5-11 format. I guess they meant “after” the guaranteed spot. (I’ll see if I can find the article.)

If the B1G and SEC can’t get four teams in a sixteen team playoff without guaranteed help, then they are overrated imo.
 
I think maybe for the B12 it might be getting completely left out. But for the others I think it’d be about not getting enough teams in. The B1G seems to be very for the 4-4-2-2-1-3 format to lock in AT MINIMUM 4 bids. It’s also why I haven’t seen any article say they like the 5+11 model.
I can see the Big 12 getting completely left out because of parity, not winning meaningful OOC games and not having a definitive top. But Yormack and a couple of coaches said they “wanted to earn it on the field” as the reason for supporting the 5-11 format. I guess they meant “after” the guaranteed spot. (I’ll see if I can find the article.)

If the B1G and SEC can’t get four teams in a sixteen team playoff without guaranteed help, then they are overrated imo.
The B12 not advocating for AQs is the strangest thing I have seen in a long time. It's almost like 'P2 Derangement Syndrome' - if they are for it, we have to be against it. The ACC might have a little bit more of an argument, but in any year they have 3 viable teams, they can pick up the 3rd in the 3 at-large bids. Especially when they have the ability to knock ND out of one of those 3 bids.

The way I was reading the media/X/public was that they were up in arms when the SEC was for AQs. Then, the minute the SEC said they would support 5+11, and people saw the SEC could get up to 6 teams in, they lost their minds and started accusing the SEC of stacking the deck. For all their whining, the SEC can't win for losing on this one. Support AQs, you are setting the field before the season starts. Say you are against AQs, you are trying to stack 6 teams into the CFP.

I have a fucking brilliant idea. How about the teams in the ACC and B12 invest like the SEC has done, have fans show up for games, and fans watch TV. Until then, the metrics speak for themselves and they can all fuck off. I say that fully understanding the SEC brings some of this on themselves by Bama/OM/USCjr whining incessantly last year, and people saying Vandy would win the ACC, and that type of thing.
 
I can see the Big 12 getting completely left out because of parity, not winning meaningful OOC games and not having a definitive top. But Yormack and a couple of coaches said they “wanted to earn it on the field” as the reason for supporting the 5-11 format. I guess they meant “after” the guaranteed spot. (I’ll see if I can find the article.)

If the B1G and SEC can’t get four teams in a sixteen team playoff without guaranteed help, then they are overrated imo.
The B12 badly needs someone (preferably with a little history) like a BYU, AZ State or Colorado to start dominating the conference and getting far in the playoffs consistently. But they want to earn it, then leave no damn doubt.
 
The B12 not advocating for AQs is the strangest thing I have seen in a long time. It's almost like 'P2 Derangement Syndrome' - if they are for it, we have to be against it. The ACC might have a little bit more of an argument, but in any year they have 3 viable teams, they can pick up the 3rd in the 3 at-large bids. Especially when they have the ability to knock ND out of one of those 3 bids.

The way I was reading the media/X/public was that they were up in arms when the SEC was for AQs. Then, the minute the SEC said they would support 5+11, and people saw the SEC could get up to 6 teams in, they lost their minds and started accusing the SEC of stacking the deck. For all their whining, the SEC can't win for losing on this one. Support AQs, you are setting the field before the season starts. Say you are against AQs, you are trying to stack 6 teams into the CFP.

I have a fucking brilliant idea. How about the teams in the ACC and B12 invest like the SEC has done, have fans show up for games, and fans watch TV. Until then, the metrics speak for themselves and they can all fuck off. I say that fully understanding the SEC brings some of this on themselves by Bama/OM/USCjr whining incessantly last year, and people saying Vandy would win the ACC, and that type of thing.
It seems like Yormark is trying to create a wedge between the SEC and B1G on at least this. It’s pretty plausible that on the outside the SEC would like as many at larges as possible while the B1G has already stated they love the 4 auto format they’d receive. While if im the B12 I’d likely take the 2 autos, I can understand wanting to try and drive a wedge between the B1G/SEC while also stating your doing this for the “good of college football.”

This whole thing started when Greg Sankey cried like a little bitch about the selection process right after the gumps got left out and the big bad SEC only got 3 teams in. Sankey has been giving opinions on the CFP so yeah, he and by extension the SEC is going to get criticized for it.

There is no doubt more B12 and ACC teams need to start investing heavily in football. It is becoming an absolute joke for some of these schools. (My alma mater included) If they want opinions to improve, they need to cowboy up and do it on the field. And that’s exactly what Yormark is saying (quite literally) when he chooses the 5+11 model.
 
It seems like Yormark is trying to create a wedge between the SEC and B1G on at least this. It’s pretty plausible that on the outside the SEC would like as many at larges as possible while the B1G has already stated they love the 4 auto format they’d receive. While if im the B12 I’d likely take the 2 autos, I can understand wanting to try and drive a wedge between the B1G/SEC while also stating your doing this for the “good of college football.”

This whole thing started when Greg Sankey cried like a little bitch about the selection process right after the gumps got left out and the big bad SEC only got 3 teams in. Sankey has been giving opinions on the CFP so yeah, he and by extension the SEC is going to get criticized for it.

There is no doubt more B12 and ACC teams need to start investing heavily in football. It is becoming an absolute joke for some of these schools. (My alma mater included) If they want opinions to improve, they need to cowboy up and do it on the field. And that’s exactly what Yormark is saying (quite literally) when he chooses the 5+11 model.
I don't think you are giving Sankey and the SEC credit ... they are playing everyone. When you are the SEC, everyone jumps your shit. Other fans, media, etc. The minute the P2 started talking about AQs where they got 4 and others got 2, the media went after the SEC, saying they were stacking the deck, asking for places to be decided before the season started. So, they said fuck it, we will go with 5+11 and the media and opposing fans went apeshit when they realized that the SEC could get 6 and they accused the SEC of wanting to dominate the CFP. In other words, no matter what the SEC said, they were going to give them shit. So, the SEC can now say double fuck it, we'll do what is best for us because you are going to give us shit no matter what.

Here is what I think they will do:

- They will go to 9 ... they weren't going to do that without AQs, but they also can't walk away from the $80 million it brings in, plus TV Viewership that will kick the B1G in the balls more than it did last year. With 9 games, there will another 4-6 four million games.

- They will agree to 4-4-2.5-2.5-1-2. This will let the SEC do the play-in scenario which will generate a bunch more money. I like the 2.5-2.5 part of this as it means the 1/2 from each the ACC and B12 play each other for their conference championship and seeding. Then the 3 from each conference will player each other cross-conference to see who get the non-P2 5 AQ. This will make Championship Weekend, which will be on Thanksgiving unreal ... Thursday night - Saturday night, wall to wall awesome football with 8 games deciding who is going to get in. Again, it will generate a ton of money.

- With this, the SEC gets a shot at a 5th in most years. Keep in mind that the SEC gets paid the same whether they have 2 or 6. I am sure they will be happy to make an extra $100 million each year, and get 4-5 in every year.

- The only thing in question is that extra .5 each for the ACC/B12. Maybe the SEC says fuck it, we want a shot at 2 at-large.

- The ACC and the B12 have to understand they would be better off with the 2.

- That said, I think we all have recently bias. I went back and looked at the teams that would have gotten in and the B12 does a lot better than you would think. Whether they can maintain that in the NIL era, I don't know, but they have had a lot more teams that would get into a CFP-16 than I thought.

-
 
I don't think you are giving Sankey and the SEC credit ... they are playing everyone. When you are the SEC, everyone jumps your shit. Other fans, media, etc. The minute the P2 started talking about AQs where they got 4 and others got 2, the media went after the SEC, saying they were stacking the deck, asking for places to be decided before the season started. So, they said fuck it, we will go with 5+11 and the media and opposing fans went apeshit when they realized that the SEC could get 6 and they accused the SEC of wanting to dominate the CFP. In other words, no matter what the SEC said, they were going to give them shit. So, the SEC can now say double fuck it, we'll do what is best for us because you are going to give us shit no matter what.

Here is what I think they will do:

- They will go to 9 ... they weren't going to do that without AQs, but they also can't walk away from the $80 million it brings in, plus TV Viewership that will kick the B1G in the balls more than it did last year. With 9 games, there will another 4-6 four million games.

- They will agree to 4-4-2.5-2.5-1-2. This will let the SEC do the play-in scenario which will generate a bunch more money. I like the 2.5-2.5 part of this as it means the 1/2 from each the ACC and B12 play each other for their conference championship and seeding. Then the 3 from each conference will player each other cross-conference to see who get the non-P2 5 AQ. This will make Championship Weekend, which will be on Thanksgiving unreal ... Thursday night - Saturday night, wall to wall awesome football with 8 games deciding who is going to get in. Again, it will generate a ton of money.

- With this, the SEC gets a shot at a 5th in most years. Keep in mind that the SEC gets paid the same whether they have 2 or 6. I am sure they will be happy to make an extra $100 million each year, and get 4-5 in every year.

- The only thing in question is that extra .5 each for the ACC/B12. Maybe the SEC says fuck it, we want a shot at 2 at-large.

- The ACC and the B12 have to understand they would be better off with the 2.

- That said, I think we all have recently bias. I went back and looked at the teams that would have gotten in and the B12 does a lot better than you would think. Whether they can maintain that in the NIL era, I don't know, but they have had a lot more teams that would get into a CFP-16 than I thought.

-
You said you went back to look at the B12. How far back? is TX and OK included in the "more teams than I thought"
 
You said you went back to look at the B12. How far back? is TX and OK included in the "more teams than I thought"
I just went back to 2019, skipping 2020, and not including Texas and OU. May not be exact, but close enough. I was a little surprised.

Top 16 teams:
2017 - UCF, TCU
2018 - UCF, WVu
2019 - Baylor, Utah
2021 - Cincy, Baylor, OkSU, Utah, BYU
2022 - TCU, Utah, KState
2023 - Arizona
2024 - ASU

I mean few have a chance to win it, but in any given year, you could see TCU, Baylor, Utah, BYU, Colo, ASU, OkSU doing well enough to get top 16. In other words, 2 seems more reasonable than I had thought.

Compare to ACC which has Clemson and FSU which are more likely to really be in it, but them Miami, Lousiville and then not much after that. I mean UNC might threaten from time to time, but they seem weaker deeper.

This is with those teams getting beat by OU and TX most often. With them gone, they should have some teams with fewer losses.
 
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I just went back to 2019, skipping 2020, and not including Texas and OU. May not be exact, but close enough. I was a little surprised.

Top 16 teams:
2017 - UCF, TCU
2018 - UCF, WVu
2019 - Baylor, Utah
2021 - Cincy, Baylor, OkSU, Utah, BYU
2022 - TCU, Utah, KState
2023 - Arizona
2024 - ASU
UCF joined the B12 in 2023. I will have to look at Utah and Cincy. Also BYU in 2021 This is why I asked about TX and OK.
 
Utah, Az st. Ariz in 2023, so you can't go too far back with the current B12 lineup
 
I am
UCF joined the B12 in 2023. I will have to look at Utah and Cincy. Also BYU in 2021 This is why I asked about TX and OK.
I am using teams currently in the conference, not what conference they were in at the time. That's how the analysts are looking at what the teams will do in the future.
 
I am

I am using teams currently in the conference, not what conference they were in at the time. That's how the analysts are looking at what the teams will do in the future.
Ok, but most of these teams were G5 teams in the years you used, playing in a G5 conference.
 
Ok, but most of these teams were G5 teams in the years you used, playing in a G5 conference.
Not really ... just Cincy and UCF. All the others were in the B12 or the PAC. And Cincy gave us all we could handle in the Peach Bowl.

I am not sticking up for the B12 ... I am pointing out that they had a lot of other teams that would have been in a CFP-16 and it wasn't just OU. Notice I left TX out ... the stunk in the B12. They were one of the few teams that wouldn't have been in the CFP-12 had they had it. They were truly bad.
 
The B12 badly needs someone (preferably with a little history) like a BYU, AZ State or Colorado to start dominating the conference and getting far in the playoffs consistently. But they want to earn it, then leave no damn doubt.
As to getting in the CFP, I agree. History shows the CFP values conferences with a clear line of separation among the group. I don’t see that happening in the Big 12. The delta just isn’t very large between the top and bottom.

But, that also makes for a longer, deeper and more interesting conference race imo. Bottom of the Big 12 has a better chance of knocking off leading teams than Purdue does in the B1G. JMO.
 
This is with those teams getting beat by OU and TX most often. With them gone, they should have some teams with fewer losses.
OU yes. But until their last couple of years, Texas was mediocre to bad for several years and lost to many of those teams.
 
Sorry, should have read further.
It's actually amazing how bad they were in the last 4 or 5 years of Mac and then the two coaches after. They averaged 5-6 losses per year. It also shows you what getting a good coach can do for you.
 
It's actually amazing how bad they were in the last 4 or 5 years of Mac and then the two coaches after. They averaged 5-6 losses per year. It also shows you what getting a good coach at a name school can do for you.
FIFY. There are a lot of good coaches at lesser schools that can coach their asses off and still not win it all. Way too much stacked against them to overcome it.
 
The B12 badly needs someone (preferably with a little history) like a BYU, AZ State or Colorado to start dominating the conference and getting far in the playoffs consistently. But they want to earn it, then leave no damn doubt.
why someone with history? what difference does that make
 
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