Scenario 4: All favorites win except Michigan
Locks: Georgia, TCU, USC
Contenders: Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama
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What committee would do: This is lower on the list because Michigan shouldn't lose to
Purdue. (But nobody thought SEC West champ LSU would lose to a seven-loss Texas A&M team, either.) Michigan would have the head-to-head win over Ohio State and arguably better wins than two-loss Alabama -- but the worst loss of any of them, to unranked Purdue (8-4). The committee would almost certainly honor the head-to-head victory over Ohio State since it was so convincing and earned the Wolverines the Big Ten's East Division title, boiling the debate down to Michigan and Alabama.
Michigan's wins against No. 2 Ohio State and No. 11 Penn State are more impressive than Alabama's wins against No. 23 Texas and No. 20 Ole Miss, but this is where Michigan's nonconference schedule would again be scrutinized. The entire Big Ten could be left out because Michigan's wins -- against
Colorado State,
Hawai'i and
UConn -- came against the second-weakest nonconference lineup in the FBS. Michigan looked so good against Ohio State, though -- better than Alabama's offensive line has played this season -- and did it without injured star running back
Blake Corum. Best guess:
The committee sticks with Michigan, and that seems even more likely if Ohio State is above Alabama on Tuesday night.