USC and UCLA planning to leave for B10 by 2024!

[OregonDucks]

B1G took UCLA along with USC to keep Oregon and the rest of the PAC out of the So Cal area. This was USC's decision and UCLA had no other choice but to go along for the ride because they are broke and desperately need the money. But USC is done with Oregon raiding their recruiting ground.

 

[NU_WTF?]

B1G took UCLA along with USC to keep Oregon and the rest of the PAC out of the So Cal area. This was USC's decision and UCLA had no other choice but to go along for the ride because they are broke and desperately need the money. But USC is done with Oregon raiding their recruiting ground.

 

[trojanfan12]

I get SC but what benefit does UCLA get? UCLA is a public school in California that values non revenue sports, does the B1G even really have non revenue sports that makes sense to fly that far out? UCLA bitches about their trips to Pullman in November because it is too cold but they are willing to go to Indiana in November? I get SC and it would’ve made sense for Stanford but I don’t get UCLA unless the B1G is hoping this 2 year run in basketball for UCLA is anything other than a fluke.

I'd say jumping from $30 million per year in tv revenue to $100+ million per year is a decent benefit.

 

[trojanfan12]

lol @Duck fans thinking this is about them.

And they wonder why they're universally mocked.

 

[trojanfan12]

And what does that do for the B1G though? That is my question.

UCLA brings more of the LA market, while they don't have a great football tradition, they're not exactly Rutgers and Chip finally seems to have them headed in the right direction. They'll be competitive. They also raise the B1Gs basketball profile a bit.

 

[Wild Turkey]

I'd say jumping from $30 million per year in tv revenue to $100+ million per year is a decent benefit.

That is what is holding back more expansion because conferences are now crunching numbers and a school has to be able to justify 100mm in revenue to be considered. Not many can do that.

 

[trojanfan12]

These moves have nothing to do with basketball though, if school ____ has a good basketball program then great, just gravy on the biscuit but Football and market drive this bus.

That's true. But, if while you are adding a football blue blood, you can add a basketball blue blood that has a competitive football team at the same time...Why wouldn't you?

 

[outofyourmind]

That is what is holding back more expansion because conferences are now crunching numbers and a school has to be able to justify 100mm in revenue to be considered. Not many can do that.

What teams are left that can do that ??

 

[Red_Alert]

What teams are left that can do that ??

Notre Dame

The real question is 'how many' and 'who' they'll add to get Notre Dame.

 

[trojanfan12]

What teams are left that can do that ??

Oregon and Notre Dame are about the only 2 I can think of. Maaaaybe BYU because there are a lot of Mormons...but that's all I can think of off the top of my head.

 

[Wild Turkey]

What teams are left that can do that ??

ND
UNC

I would think Clemson and FSU would be close but it’s a narrow window. Bundling that protects high profile rivalries and makes the scheduling more manageable help boost the value of some schools.

There is an argument that 4 power conferences of 16 teams makes the most sense but I think that ship has sailed because the PAC and Big 12 have been neutered.

So the big question is how big can the SEC and B1G get without watering down the brands and making scheduling still manageable? I think that number is going to either 20 with 5 team pods or 24 with 4 team pods. If you go with 5 team pods and 10 conference games you play the teams out of your pod once every 3 years. 24 teams it gets a lot more complicated.

I could outline the math in more detail but it would be boring. Honestly I think these conferences max at 20 or you run the risk of it being 5 to 6 years between playing some people in your conference.

I guess you could grow them to 40 teams, 10 team divisions, never play the teams in the other divisions and do a playoff conference championship. I don’t see anyone wanting that so we are probably looking at 40 to 48 teams total in the two super conferences Combined.

 

[Red_Alert]

Jack Swarbrick - Notre Dame AD

“The three things that would make continuing as an independent unsustainable would be....
1) The loss of a committed broadcast partner,
2) The loss of a fair route into the postseason
3) Such an adverse financial consequence that you had to reconsider”

Jack Swarbrick, Notre Dame AD, reflects on reasons Irish would join a conference

Jack Swarbrick is squarely in the middle of college football realignment discussions.

www.saturdaydownsouth.com

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

I get SC but what benefit does UCLA get? UCLA is a public school in California that values non revenue sports, does the B1G even really have non revenue sports that makes sense to fly that far out? UCLA bitches about their trips to Pullman in November because it is too cold but they are willing to go to Indiana in November? I get SC and it would’ve made sense for Stanford but I don’t get UCLA unless the B1G is hoping this 2 year run in basketball for UCLA is anything other than a fluke.

They will have an extra $50-$60 million a year in conference $$$$ to pay for any trips

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

And what does that do for the B1G though? That is my question.

The B1G is all about academics, UCLA fits that role perfectly as one of the top universities academically. The LA tv market is enormous, so grabbing the two biggest schools in that market will only make TV deals go up. It is the same reason we brought in Rutgers and Maryland. It is all about the market shares.

 

[Deep Creek]

I'd say jumping from $30 million per year in tv revenue to $100+ million per year is a decent benefit.

Absolutely. There isn't a single school that wouldn't make that trade given the invitation. Well, maybe that one in South Bend but that's about it. With the revenue gap growing like it is and as quickly as it is, I'd think even THAT school would have to eventually.

 

[Wizardhawk]

lol @Duck fans thinking this is about them.

And they wonder why they're universally mocked.

I loved ducky going from being pissed about USC abandoning 100 years of tradition and screwing the rest of the Pac, to please please please take us! in the same day. The pure hypocrisy was predictable.

 

[Wizardhawk]

The B1G is all about academics, UCLA fits that role perfectly as one of the top universities academically. The LA tv market is enormous, so grabbing the two biggest schools in that market will only make TV deals go up. It is the same reason we brought in Rutgers and Maryland. It is all about the market shares.

Um, if it was JUST academics Stanford would have given them more and a wider TV footprint covering most of the state. UW also has very strong academics and a big TV market.

UCLA was a packaged deal for USC that checked a lot of boxes and came with no negatives for the B1G other than adding a fuckload of travel. They were going to do that no matter who they took.

 

[Deep Creek]

That is what is holding back more expansion because conferences are now crunching numbers and a school has to be able to justify 100mm in revenue to be considered. Not many can do that.

ND
UNC

I would think Clemson and FSU would be close but it’s a narrow window. Bundling that protects high profile rivalries and makes the scheduling more manageable help boost the value of some schools.

There is an argument that 4 power conferences of 16 teams makes the most sense but I think that ship has sailed because the PAC and Big 12 have been neutered.

So the big question is how big can the SEC and B1G get without watering down the brands and making scheduling still manageable? I think that number is going to either 20 with 5 team pods or 24 with 4 team pods. If you go with 5 team pods and 10 conference games you play the teams out of your pod once every 3 years. 24 teams it gets a lot more complicated.

I could outline the math in more detail but it would be boring. Honestly I think these conferences max at 20 or you run the risk of it being 5 to 6 years between playing some people in your conference.

I guess you could grow them to 40 teams, 10 team divisions, never play the teams in the other divisions and do a playoff conference championship. I don’t see anyone wanting that so we are probably looking at 40 to 48 teams total in the two super conferences Combined.

Yeah, there aren't 64 teams that command $100 million in annual revenue. Hell, if we want to get real, there probably aren't even 40 or 48 that meet that criteria. That number is probably closer to a couple of dozen that can really command that amount. JMO.

 

[Wizardhawk]

It's really pointless to get too wrapped up in these intermediary steps. This isn't the final form for elite college football in the future. Not by a longshot. Will it end up with two 20ish team super conferences and everyone else relegated to mid-major status? 3-4 conferences that still carry traditional drek along with increasing power teams after shrinking the old P5's? 8, 12, or 16 game playoffs?

NIL, transfer portal, and ever increasing TV deals will forever change the game. It already has and isn't going back to anything we all grew up with. Will it end up being a better product at the highest levels? Time will tell.

 

[Wizardhawk]

Analysis: Outlooks and concern levels for UW, WSU and remaining Pac-12 schools

Wilner breaks down the fear index of the remaining 10 Pac schools. He details why for each team in the article. Left out here to avoid TLDR post. He has a pretty good take on it.

Arizona
Fear Index: moderate
Arizona State
Fear Index: low
California
Fear Index: high
Colorado
Fear Index: moderate
Oregon
Fear Index: high*
Oregon State
Fear Index: extreme
Stanford
Fear Index: high
Utah
Fear Index: zero
Washington
Fear Index: zero
Washington State
Fear Index: extreme