Week 7 Playoff Projections

1 - Texas (Sugar)
2 - Ohio State (Rose)
3 - Clemson (Peach)
4 - Iowa State (Fiesta)
5 - Oregon
6 - Penn State
7 - Georgia
8 - Tennessee
9 - LSU
10 - Miami
11 - Notre Dame
12 - Boise State

Boise State @ Oregon
Notre Dame @ Penn State
Miami @ Georgia
LSU @ Tennessee


Notes
-While OSU lost at Oregon, this was already built into the previous projections, with OSU ultimately prevailing in a pseudo-home environment in Indianapolis.
-Coming off back to back bad performances, Alabama is now slated to miss the playoff, with Tennessee taking their place

Obviously a big week of games on tap this week, which could potentially shake things up.
My Playoff prediction based on how I see the season finishing out:

1. Texas (might drop one game to either Georgia or Texas A&M) but wins SEC title game. Possible you could switch Texas and Ohio St if Texas loses a regular season game. Ohio St could get wins over Penn St. and Oregon.
2. Ohio St. (beats Oregon in Big title game)
3. Clemson
4. BYU? Iowa St? Kansas St? Who knows...somebody wins this conference.

5. Oregon
6. Penn St
7. Texas A&M
8. Georgia
9. Notre Dame
10. Miami
11. Mizzou (11-2 loses to Texas in SEC Title game). I have to have at least 1 homer pick. I think Mizzou can win out.
12. Boise St

Mizzou is only in SEC Title game if Texas beats both Georgia and A&M. If Georgia beats Texas and wins out like I expect they would get Texas rematch in SEC Title game. If A&M wins out then they would get rematch with Texas in SEC Title game. I don't think Texas will lose both of them. I think it's either or win both. Mizzou at 11-1 would get in the playoffs. 11-2 Mizzou also gets in with loss in SEC Title game. I think 10-2 Mizzou gets left out because teams like A&M and Bama (most likely lost in regular season) would have same records and head to head wins over Mizzou.


Boise St at Oregon winner vs Big 12
Mizzou at Penn St winner vs Clemson
Miami at A&M winner vs Ohio St
Notre Dame at Georgia winner vs Texas
The loser of the SECCG will get the no. 5 or 6 seed. They will not move a third B1G team that stayed at home in front of a CCG loser. No. 5 and 6 seeds will almost always be the SEC/B1G CCG loser or ND ranked 4th or better.
 
The loser of the SECCG will get the no. 5 or 6 seed. They will not move a third B1G team that stayed at home in front of a CCG loser. No. 5 and 6 seeds will almost always be the SEC/B1G CCG loser or ND ranked 4th or better.

Sec looks to be beating each other up.
 
Sec looks to be beating each other up.
Doesn’t matter … a team that doesn’t play in a CCG will not move ahead of an SEC CCG loser IMO. That loss will not matter unless they lose by 30 or something.

The SEC beating each other up will help SOS. Also, the B1G will start doing the same. PSU is going to lose at least 1 or tOSU will have 2 losses.

You have to get out of the counting losses mentality. They are going to look at body or work. If they don’t, the P2 will insist on 4 AQs.
 
Doesn’t matter … a team that doesn’t play in a CCG will not move ahead of an SEC CCG loser IMO. That loss will not matter unless they lose by 30 or something.

The SEC beating each other up will help SOS. Also, the B1G will start doing the same. PSU is going to lose at least 1 or tOSU will have 2 losses.

You have to get out of the counting losses mentality. They are going to look at body or work. If they don’t, the P2 will insist on 4 AQs.

They aren't moving ahead. The SEC #2 will start behind them and have no reason to move up
 
Doesn’t matter … a team that doesn’t play in a CCG will not move ahead of an SEC CCG loser IMO. That loss will not matter unless they lose by 30 or something.

The SEC beating each other up will help SOS. Also, the B1G will start doing the same. PSU is going to lose at least 1 or tOSU will have 2 losses.

You have to get out of the counting losses mentality. They are going to look at body or work. If they don’t, the P2 will insist on 4 AQs.

I'd normally agree, but some of the SEC contenders have taken on some terrible losses(Bama to Vandy, Ole Miss to UK, Tennessee to Arkansas, LSU to USC). The SECCG loser could very well have 3 losses. If Texas does run the table, I'd put that as a very realistic possibility. We'll know a lot more after this weekend, but it's certainly possible the SECCG loser isn't the 5 or 6 seed.
 
The loser of the SECCG will get the no. 5 or 6 seed. They will not move a third B1G team that stayed at home in front of a CCG loser. No. 5 and 6 seeds will almost always be the SEC/B1G CCG loser or ND ranked 4th or better.
Maybe.....but it's likely Penn St only has 1 loss....if Oregon beats Ohio St for a 2nd time, then maybe the SECt loser gets 5 or 6. It's more likely the Big schools have only 1 loss.
 
Maybe.....but it's likely Penn St only has 1 loss....if Oregon beats Ohio St for a 2nd time, then maybe the SECt loser gets 5 or 6. It's more likely the Big schools have only 1 loss.
I favor osu in the rematch in a very pro-osu environment
 
If we win Saturday I will pretty good about our chances. Because then we can lose to LSU and 10-2 with a win over UGA will get us in. Vandy is gonna end up with 7 or 8 wins so that loss won't look near as bad as initially thought
 
If we win Saturday I will pretty good about our chances. Because then we can lose to LSU and 10-2 with a win over UGA will get us in. Vandy is gonna end up with 7 or 8 wins so that loss won't look near as bad as initially thought

That all seems reasonable
 
The loser of the SECCG will get the no. 5 or 6 seed. They will not move a third B1G team that stayed at home in front of a CCG loser. No. 5 and 6 seeds will almost always be the SEC/B1G CCG loser or ND ranked 4th or better.
So now the CFP committee not only has to put the correct number of B1G/SEC teams in the playoffs, they have to put them in a certain order so the two big dogs in the yard won’t fight with each other! Lmao
 
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They aren't moving ahead. The SEC #2 will start behind them and have no reason to move up
Again, they won't penalize the loser of a CCG. And, the idea that the B1G no. 3 will be ahead of the SEC no. 2 before conference championship wee requires that your top 3 teams don't lose to each other, or lose other games. I suppose that's possible, but not likely. If that desont' happen, it doesn't say much for your strength of conference, or you scheduling.
 
So now the CFP committee not only has to put the correct number of B1G/SEC teams in the playoffs, they have to put them in a certain order so the two big dogs in the yard won’t fight with each other! Lmao
My point on this has been clear all along. if the SEC/B1G are now playing schedules without divisions, and with the best teams from the other conferences now being in their conference, there will be more losses. If the committee does not take that into consideration, there will not be a committee in 2026. I can't see that this is a controversial position. The difference in quality teams between the P2 and the other 2 P4 is huge now. The best P2 teams are going to lose more games than they have in the past, and teams in the ACC as an example still have an easy road against weak IC competition. If the committee doesn't take that into account, the P2 will mandate AQs, at least 3 or 4. I have also said I hate they idea of 4 AQs,and 3 even makes me uncomfortable. But the facts of life are that when one conference has 6-8 quality teams, and the ACC has 2 at most, and we aren't even sure the B12 has 2, you are comparing Peaches to Oranges (see what I did there?) if you just look at losses.
 
I'd normally agree, but some of the SEC contenders have taken on some terrible losses(Bama to Vandy, Ole Miss to UK, Tennessee to Arkansas, LSU to USC). The SECCG loser could very well have 3 losses. If Texas does run the table, I'd put that as a very realistic possibility. We'll know a lot more after this weekend, but it's certainly possible the SECCG loser isn't the 5 or 6 seed.
And, those losses should be taken into consideration. You will have to deal with losing to UNI at home. Hell, maybe the SEC teams suck this year. But top teams in the SEC have taken care of business, for the most part in OOC:

UGA crushed Clemson
Bama crushed Wisconsin
Texas crushed Michigan (although not sure Michigan shouldn't be considered under the Shitty category)
Mizzou beat @BC

ND beat TAMU
USC beat LSU


Shitty SEC teams
Miami over UF
LSU over UCLA
UTjr over NCSU
OkSU over Arky
GaState over Vandy
Cal over Auburn

As for the SECCG loser having 3 losses, that point is they shouldn't be penalized for losing in the CCG. If the no. 3 B1G has 2 losses and doesn't get into the CCG, then the SEC no. 2 with 2 losses plus the CCG loss should not fall below them, assuming they were above them, for losing in a game the B1G no. 3 didn't qualify for. If they had the B1G no. 3 was ranked ahead of the SEC no. 2 that loses, I can get them not getting a 5 or 6 seed. That's a good point that @michaeljordan_fan made.
 
Maybe.....but it's likely Penn St only has 1 loss....if Oregon beats Ohio St for a 2nd time, then maybe the SECt loser gets 5 or 6. It's more likely the Big schools have only 1 loss.
We'll see, but if the B1G has three teams with one loss, is that a reflection of how good they are or how weak the rest of the B1G is? If the SEC has a bunch of teams with two losses, is that a reflection of them having more good teams or that they aren't as good as people are saying they are? That's the committee's job, and they better do more than just go by the number of losses.
 
And, those losses should be taken into consideration. You will have to deal with losing to UNI at home. Hell, maybe the SEC teams suck this year. But top teams in the SEC have taken care of business, for the most part in OOC:

UGA crushed Clemson
Bama crushed Wisconsin
Texas crushed Michigan (although not sure Michigan shouldn't be considered under the Shitty category)
Mizzou beat @BC

ND beat TAMU
USC beat LSU


Shitty SEC teams
Miami over UF
LSU over UCLA
UTjr over NCSU
OkSU over Arky
GaState over Vandy
Cal over Auburn

As for the SECCG loser having 3 losses, that point is they shouldn't be penalized for losing in the CCG. If the no. 3 B1G has 2 losses and doesn't get into the CCG, then the SEC no. 2 with 2 losses plus the CCG loss should not fall below them, assuming they were above them, for losing in a game the B1G no. 3 didn't qualify for. If they had the B1G no. 3 was ranked ahead of the SEC no. 2 that loses, I can get them not getting a 5 or 6 seed. That's a good point that @michaeljordan_fan made.

Why did you leave Toledo 'crushing' Mississippi St. 41-17 in Starkville off there?

Just an oversight? :dhd:
 
Why did you leave Toledo 'crushing' Mississippi St. 41-17 in Starkville off there?

Just an oversight? :dhd:
Truthfully, MSU was at the bottom of the list and I didn't get to them.
 
Odd that you made it all the way down 15 spots to Auburn, but not one more to Mississippi St. at 16. :headscratch:

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Believe what you want, but that is what happened. And I still don't think the Toledo win means anything even though it appears vitally important to you. If you can't tell me you believe Toledo is better than UGA then just drop it. it was a meaningless game.
 
We'll see, but if the B1G has three teams with one loss, is that a reflection of how good they are or how weak the rest of the B1G is? If the SEC has a bunch of teams with two losses, is that a reflection of them having more good teams or that they aren't as good as people are saying they are? That's the committee's job, and they better do more than just go by the number of losses.

I guess it depends on who the teams are.

You know a 2 loss Bama is getting into the playoff over 1 loss Indiana if it came down to it
 
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