Where are we with the CFP after week 12?

[Cowboyinexile]

If Southern OSU finishes 12-1, I believe they jump both ND and CIncy.
Slow start to the season but we could go there with everyone else with lacking performances vs lesser teams

We were ridiculously thin at WR to start the season. It was bizarre. Last summer the talk was about how good our depth there was and then off-season injuries started happening. The Boise game where we threw like 10 passes was because of availability. We didn't have enough players at that position to run our offense and it was a walk on that caught a key pass late to lock up the W. Outside of two guys out for the year we've gotten back to normal there and it's showed lately.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

Im not debating your dominance. But if you are being honest your schedule is soft. I'm thinking you win out against an overrated Bama but if you have a letdown there why should you be in versus a team that has the same defensive metrics and wins over two top 10 teams to close out the schedule?

Again if I'm betting you guys win out and the argument is about a 2 loss team but what about your resume screams you belong in if you lose? Great win vs Arky but after that you have dominant wins over schools that fired their coaches.

If you want to be honest -- OK State has a much softer schedule and the Big 12, as a whole, is down on the year. I can understand wanting to get in over a 2 loss Bama, but Georgia can start booking hotels and travel plans, because they are in the CFP whether they win or lose.

 

[Deep Creek]

Who else fired their coach besides Florida? Outside of the win over Baylor, who has Okie State beaten? And the loss against Iowa State is not a quality loss, but a loss nonetheless. I would like to see the Cowboys in the CFP just for a new team in it.

Ain't it great when all those pollsters and perceptionists are exposed after we play the season out? And there are a lot of them each year. Both what are considered "quality wins" and "quality losses" at the beginning or at the time of the game.

You mentioned one. Remember when the Indiana win was a good win for Cincy? And the Stanford loss wasn't a bad loss for Oregon? And the A&M win at Colorado wasn't a bad win? Indiana has 9 losses, Stanford 8 losses and Colorado 7 losses now.

If only we'd play the games on paper or reputation, life would be so much easier.

Pre Season AP
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Oklahoma
4. Georgia
5. Iowa State
6. Ohio State
7. Texas A&M
8. Cincinnati
9. Oregon
10. Iowa
11. LSU
12. Miami
13 Notre Dame
14. North Carolina
15. Wisconsin
16. Indiana
17. Florida
18. Texas
19. Coastal Carolina
20. Ole Miss
21. Penn State
22. Washington
23. Arizona State
24. USC
25. Louisiana

 

[Deep Creek]

I am trying to wrap my brain around this "weak schedule" argument.

Leaving out the FCS teams, and including next week's games, the won loss record for each of us is you at 66-55, we are UGA at 64-57. See the chart below. Statistically insignificant. We've actually played more teams with a winning record, you have played the most successful team - OU at 10-1. You lost to a 6-5 team, we've not lost. You squeaked by teams you shouldn't have, we beat the hell out of everyone other than Clemson in game 1.

I think an argument could be made that neither of us played that tough a schedule. We had no idea that Florida would collapse, and that Clemson would be 8-3 and not up to the level they have been in the past. Compare the chart below and tell me you really think our schedule is soft and yours isn't. They look quite similar, if you ask me. You ask why, if we lose to no. 2 Bama, we should get in ... I would argue that we have a better D and a better O, our schedules are similar, if you beat OU and Baylor, they will be ranked around 20ish, and you have a bad loss, and a bunch of games you played close where you should have blown them out.

FWIW, if you win out, I think you should be in over Cincy, ND, and a 2 loss Bama. Bama/UGA/tOSU/1 loss B12 winner is the most likely scenario.

OU	10​	1​		Clemson	8​	3​
Baylor	9​	2​		Kentucky	8​	3​
BSU	7​	4​		UAB	7​	4​
KSU	7​	4​		Arkansas	7​	4​
Iowa State	6​	5​		Tenn	6​	5​
Texas Tech	6​	5​		Auburn	6​	5​
Tulsa	5​	6​		USCjr	6​	5​
WVa	5​	6​		Missouri	6​	5​
TCU	5​	6​		Florida	5​	6​
Texas	4​	7​		GaTech	3​	8​
Kansas	2​	9​		Vandy	2​	9​
	66​	55​			64​	57​

I haven't looked but don't the other contenders like Cincy, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, etal, have similar looking resumes? But I'm too lazy to look 'em up.

 

[Wild Turkey]

I think the playoffs are set unless an upset happens

Georgia, Ohio State/Michigan, Alabama and Cincinnati.

If Cincy goes down, it's down to ND or the Big 12 winner (if they still have 1 loss)

If Georgia beats Bama I don’t think they get in. Too many one loss teams and they’ve had close games to LSU, Arkansas and Florida.

Bama has to win out.

 

[Tharvot]

Ain't it great when all those pollsters and perceptionists are exposed after we play the season out? And there are a lot of them each year. Both what are considered "quality wins" and "quality losses" at the beginning or at the time of the game.

You mentioned one. Remember when the Indiana win was a good win for Cincy? And the Stanford loss wasn't a bad loss for Oregon? And the A&M win at Colorado wasn't a bad win? Indiana has 9 losses, Stanford 8 losses and Colorado 7 losses now.

If only we'd play the games on paper or reputation, life would be so much easier.

Pre Season AP
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Oklahoma
4. Georgia
5. Iowa State
6. Ohio State
7. Texas A&M
8. Cincinnati
9. Oregon
10. Iowa
11. LSU
12. Miami
13 Notre Dame
14. North Carolina
15. Wisconsin
16. Indiana
17. Florida
18. Texas
19. Coastal Carolina
20. Ole Miss
21. Penn State
22. Washington
23. Arizona State
24. USC
25. Louisiana

I have to laugh each year when the AP trots out Miami and USC in their top 25. Neither of those programs have been worth a shit in the past decade+, but they continue to live off their name brands. Texas and Florida getting to that point now too.

 

[Deep Creek]

I have to laugh each year when the AP trots out Miami and USC in their top 25. Neither of those programs have been worth a shit in the past decade+, but they continue to live off their name brands. Texas and Florida getting to that point now too.

Look at the ones for this year.

Pre Season AP
1. Alabama
2. Clemson - 3 losses
3. Oklahoma
4. Georgia
5. Iowa State - 5 losses
6. Ohio State
7. Texas A&M - 3 losses
8. Cincinnati
9. Oregon
10. Iowa
11. LSU - 6 losses
12. Miami - 5 losses
13 Notre Dame
14. North Carolina - 5 losses
15. Wisconsin
16. Indiana - 9 losses
17. Florida - 6 losses
18. Texas - 7 losses
19. Coastal Carolina
20. Ole Miss
21. Penn State
22. Washington - 7 losses
23. Arizona State
24. USC - 6 losses
25. Louisiana

 

[steelerssb]

UTSA is still unbeaten

 

[Tharvot]

Look at the ones for this year.

Pre Season AP
1. Alabama
2. Clemson - 3 losses
3. Oklahoma
4. Georgia
5. Iowa State - 5 losses
6. Ohio State
7. Texas A&M - 3 losses
8. Cincinnati
9. Oregon
10. Iowa
11. LSU - 6 losses
12. Miami - 5 losses
13 Notre Dame
14. North Carolina - 5 losses
15. Wisconsin
16. Indiana - 9 losses
17. Florida - 6 losses
18. Texas - 7 losses
19. Coastal Carolina
20. Ole Miss
21. Penn State
22. Washington - 7 losses
23. Arizona State
24. USC - 6 losses
25. Louisiana

Of that list, I have to say Iowa State is most surprising to me. I really thought they would be good this year. LSU too. I wasn't expecting such a drastic drop off. Clemson a little surprising. Showed they aren't Alabama after all.

Indiana had some early injuries that derailed their season I think? Texas' struggles are just entertaining at this point.

 

[duckboy33]

If Georgia beats Bama I don’t think they get in. Too many one loss teams and they’ve had close games to LSU, Arkansas and Florida.

Bama has to win out.

I don’t agree. Bama is in unless they get blown out by UGA

 

[Deep Creek]

Of that list, I have to say Iowa State is most surprising to me. I really thought they would be good this year. LSU too. I wasn't expecting such a drastic drop off. Clemson a little surprising. Showed they aren't Alabama after all.

Indiana had some early injuries that derailed their season I think? Texas' struggles are just entertaining at this point.

Of that list, Iowa State was definitely the biggest miss in ratings in relation to starting point versus number of losses. Next would be the group of LSU, Indiana, Florida, Texas, Washington and USC. Even though teams like Az State, Penn State, and Wisconsin have several losses, they weren't ranked too high to begin with. A&M as well...but they started higher. All their losses are to pretty decent teams...but the Auburn one isn't looking too good the further we go into the season.

 

[Tharvot]

Of that list, Iowa State was definitely the biggest miss in ratings in relation to starting point versus number of losses. Next would be the group of LSU, Indiana, Florida, Texas, Washington and USC. Even though teams like Az State, Penn State, and Wisconsin have several losses, they weren't ranked too high to begin with. A&M as well...but they started higher. All their losses are to pretty decent teams...but the Auburn one isn't looking too good the further we go into the season.

Yeah, I had high expectations for the Cyclones. Probably gave their team and coach way too much credit heading in to the season.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I haven't looked but don't the other contenders like Cincy, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, etal, have similar looking resumes? But I'm too lazy to look 'em up.

Yes. My guess if this is a fairly representative distribution where you play 8 or 9 conference games. In a normal year, that Clemson game would be more impressive. Still better than any OOC game they played, and may well be as good as their best game when everything is done. It’s not like OU has played great all year. Also no one saw UF blow up like they did. Ours would have been better if we played Bama, maybe TAMU I suppose. But, we destroyed everyone we played except Clemson, So we did what you’re supposed to do against shitty teams, something other teams can’t say when they squeaked by lower competition.

 

[Wild Turkey]

I don’t agree. Bama is in unless they get blown out by UGA

I don't see a two-loss Bama in this year with the potential for so many one-loss teams and undefeated teams. Their loss is ok but not great and they haven't been blowing teams out of the water.

For example, a 2 loss Bama isn't getting in over a 1 loss ND.

I would expect the final result to be 4 of the following assuming a two-loss Alabama:

Georgia
Ohio State
Cincinnati
Notre Dame
Bedlam winner (assuming they don't lose again)

It's like I've been saying there never has been 4 deserving teams. We could legit play UGA vs tOSU and be done with it.

 

[Deep Creek]

I don't see a two-loss Bama in this year with the potential for so many one-loss teams and undefeated teams. Their loss is ok but not great and they haven't been blowing teams out of the water.

For example, a 2 loss Bama isn't getting in over a 1 loss ND.

I would expect the final result to be 4 of the following assuming a two-loss Alabama:

Georgia
Ohio State
Cincinnati
Notre Dame
Bedlam winner (assuming they don't lose again)

It's like I've been saying there never has been 4 deserving teams. We could legit play UGA vs tOSU and be done with it.

Notre Dame's resume isn't as good as it could have been. USC and Stanford ain't helping it out either. They also won't have a 13th game.

 

[Kburjr]

I don't see a two-loss Bama in this year with the potential for so many one-loss teams and undefeated teams. Their loss is ok but not great and they haven't been blowing teams out of the water.

For example, a 2 loss Bama isn't getting in over a 1 loss ND.

I would expect the final result to be 4 of the following assuming a two-loss Alabama:

Georgia
Ohio State
Cincinnati
Notre Dame
Bedlam winner (assuming they don't lose again)

It's like I've been saying there never has been 4 deserving teams. We could legit play UGA vs tOSU and be done with it.

I want to see a battle of the OSUs. And Cincinnati vs Georgia and then we can shut the G5 schools the fuck up. UTSA should be playing in the FCS playoffs

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I don't see a two-loss Bama in this year with the potential for so many one-loss teams and undefeated teams. Their loss is ok but not great and they haven't been blowing teams out of the water.

For example, a 2 loss Bama isn't getting in over a 1 loss ND.

I would expect the final result to be 4 of the following assuming a two-loss Alabama:

Georgia
Ohio State
Cincinnati
Notre Dame
Bedlam winner (assuming they don't lose again)

It's like I've been saying there never has been 4 deserving teams. We could legit play UGA vs tOSU and be done with it.

ND is blocked by Cincy. If they win out, ND can’t get in absent a 2007 bloodletting where both get in.

This would actually be a great year for 12 … the 5-12 games would be great.

 

[ELTEXAN]

If you want to be honest -- OK State has a much softer schedule and the Big 12, as a whole, is down on the year. I can understand wanting to get in over a 2 loss Bama, but Georgia can start booking hotels and travel plans, because they are in the CFP whether they win or lose.

Why is the b12 soft, and not the sec this year? Why? Because per usual the AP and coaches overinflated ranks say so?
lmao. “We’re not over ranked… just look at our rankings!” Lol.
who would you rather play:
AUB ARKY KENT, or
OU BAY ISU?

And just to reiterate for that other dunce:
If UGA is already a cfp team, and even losing the CCG doesn’t knock them out… then no need beating lowly GT to ‘become a cfp team.’
So if they’re already a cfp team, then losing to GT shouldn’t matter. They should still be in. THATS how stupid that argument is.
I AM THE ONE saying the games and wins and losses and CCG still matter. That dunce says they don’t.
And when I point out his illogic in his argument, he just says “well, drrrp, ummm, of course a GT loss would matter.”
But it shouldn’t. Not according to his dumbass position and argument.
Qed .

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Why is the b12 soft, and not the sec this year? Why? Because per usual the AP and coaches overinflated ranks say so?
lmao. “We’re not over ranked… just look at our rankings!” Lol.
who would you rather play:
AUB ARKY KENT, or
OU BAY ISU?

And just to reiterate for that other dunce:
If UGA is already a cfp team, and even losing the CCG doesn’t knock them out… then no need beating lowly GT to ‘become a cfp team.’
So if they’re already a cfp team, then losing to GT shouldn’t matter. They should still be in. THATS how stupid that argument is.
I AM THE ONE saying the games and wins and losses and CCG still matter. That dunce says they don’t.
And when I point out his illogic in his argument, he just says “well, drrrp, ummm, of course a GT loss would matter.”
But it shouldn’t. Not according to his dumbass position and argument.
Qed .

LOL comparing the B12 nos 1, 3 and 4 against the SEC’s 5, 6 and 7. Compare OU, Baylor and Iowa State to UGA, Bama, and Ole Miss. Now how does it look?

You keep coming over to the adults table and whining. Back to the kiddies table for you.

Welcome to the SEC, kiddo.

 

[ELTEXAN]

LOL comparing the B12 nos 1, 3 and 4 against the SEC’s 5, 6 and 7. Compare OU, Baylor and Iowa State to UGA, Bama, and Ole Miss. Now how does it look?

You keep coming over to the adults table and whining. Back to the kiddies table for you.

Welcome to the SEC, kiddo.

Those are the teams each played. Jesus. Keep up, dunce.