Why the SEC doesn't want FSU and Clemson ...

I've maintained for some time that the SEC won't take Clemson and FSU because most of the league doesn't want two more top teams. Hell, even UGA and Bama don't want any more tough games. We have plenty already.

Here are ESPN's toughest schedules per FPI ... and yes, I know a single snap hasn't been taken, but:

- Top 8 schedules
- 9 of the top 10
- 12 of the top 20
- 15 of the top 25 (only Missouri not in the Top 25)
- The only team in the top 25 not in the P2 is Georgia Tech.

Oh, and for the current discussion we are having about Clemson wanting to move from the ACC, note that neither Clemson nor FSU are in the top 25. Do they really want this smoke?



Doesn't matter. Big time CFB is moving towards a 2 Super Conference and extended playoff system. Schedule difficulty won't matter nearly as much because regular season records will matter far less.

When they move to a 16-team playoff, both the B1G and SEC will get 5-6 schools in every year.

At this point, if there's a high calibre name out there, go ahead and add them so CBS and Fox can add more prime time matchups.
 
Doesn't matter. Big time CFB is moving towards a 2 Super Conference and extended playoff system. Schedule difficulty won't matter nearly as much because regular season records will matter far less.

When they move to a 16-team playoff, both the B1G and SEC will get 5-6 schools in every year.

At this point, if there's a high calibre name out there, go ahead and add them so CBS and Fox can add more prime time matchups.
We'll see about the scheduling difficulty. There is a reason the SEC and B1G wanted 3 guaranteed spots. They saw that they were going to have some really good teams with some losses. The schedule in this thread shows that ... UGA has to play away at 3 top 10 teams. Then 2 more in the top 25. 9 of the top 10 teams are in the SEC. 24 of 25 are in the P2. If this all goes to chalk, the P2 are going to have teams with multiple losses that are likely far better than teams in the non-P2. What will the committee do when that happens?

It's why the SEC didn't go to the 9th game. They want to see whether the committee will consider SOS instead of just defaulting to the number of wins/losses. If a 4th SEC team that is 9-3 gets left out for a B12/ACC school that is 10-2, the SEC will never go to a 9th game.

There are no more high caliber names out there other than ND, FSU, and Clemson. That's it.

The chart in this great post shows that:

 
I hadn't thought about it from a TV time slot perspective, but that makes sense. But doesn't that cut against FSU and Clemson to the SEC. Without going and looking at the prime slots for the SEC - can't they pretty much fill them with UGA, Bama, OU, TX, LSU v. anyone else every week? That gives them as many as 5 potential time slots that would be considered prime and would generate 3+ million viewers. Match those teams up against Auburn, ATM, Ole Miss, UTjr, and UF, and you would easily fill the top 3 slots. Just spitballing.

Have to think through that a little more.
Yep, with those 10 schools that's a potential 48 matchups you can create in a season. Then add on top ranked schools like UGA, Bama, (OU, TX, LSU, etc on a good year) who would draw in numbers vs anyone (but not on the level of Mich / OSU).
Pretty much, my guess for FSU / Clem has always been to the BIG because it would bring a bigger bump to them then the SEC
 
Yep, with those 10 schools that's a potential 48 matchups you can create in a season. Then add on top ranked schools like UGA, Bama, (OU, TX, LSU, etc on a good year) who would draw in numbers vs anyone (but not on the level of Mich / OSU).
Pretty much, my guess for FSU / Clem has always been to the BIG because it would bring a bigger bump to them then the SEC
Bama holds their own with tOSU and UM, but we will see if that lasts once they aren't winning all the time.

The B1G has the top with tOSU, UM, and PSU, but the SEC is just more solid at the top. Bama, UGA, then PSU, but the SEC has 6 more top teams before you get to USC in the B1G.

The SEC is going to have a decision to make ... do they let FSU and Clemson go to the B1G, which would get them closer in competition. But if the SEC grabbed FSU and Clemson the competition for best teams wouldn't even be close anymore.
 
Not sure how these are calculated so I'll "assume" and we all know what that does.

Aren't some schools numbers elevated because they play highly watched opponents multiple times a season? Example Oklahoma State and TCU numbers will decrease because they'll be replacing the bump they got from playing Texas and Oklahoma with games against Arizona State, Arizona, Utah or Colorado.

No?
 
Why they won't take em? CAUSE THEY SUCK

Easter Bunny Love GIF by Robert E Blackmon
 
We'll see about the scheduling difficulty. There is a reason the SEC and B1G wanted 3 guaranteed spots. They saw that they were going to have some really good teams with some losses. The schedule in this thread shows that ... UGA has to play away at 3 top 10 teams. Then 2 more in the top 25. 9 of the top 10 teams are in the SEC. 24 of 25 are in the P2. If this all goes to chalk, the P2 are going to have teams with multiple losses that are likely far better than teams in the non-P2. What will the committee do when that happens?

It's why the SEC didn't go to the 9th game. They want to see whether the committee will consider SOS instead of just defaulting to the number of wins/losses. If a 4th SEC team that is 9-3 gets left out for a B12/ACC school that is 10-2, the SEC will never go to a 9th game.

There are no more high caliber names out there other than ND, FSU, and Clemson. That's it.

The chart in this great post shows that:


SIlly that graph categorizes ND as "ACC". I guess they sort of are.

If anything, the B1G merger with the PAC should make a move to the B1G finally enticing for ND.

In any case, there's no reason for the B12 to ever get a playoff team in. And if FSU and Clemson were to leave the ACC, the same could be said about that conference. "Super" D-1 Football is on the horizon.
 
SIlly that graph categorizes ND as "ACC". I guess they sort of are.

If anything, the B1G merger with the PAC should make a move to the B1G finally enticing for ND.

In any case, there's no reason for the B12 to ever get a playoff team in. And if FSU and Clemson were to leave the ACC, the same could be said about that conference. "Super" D-1 Football is on the horizon.
ND has zero reason to go into a conference. They can make about as much as a P2 team can, and they have no problem making up the difference with fundraising. They like their independence and aren't going to move away from that. They could easily get a scheduling agreement with either or both the P2.

The no-P2 can most certainly get in. In some years, their best team(s) can compete with the 4-7 teams in the P2. I think having all the conferences involved is a better product that just the P2.
 
ND has zero reason to go into a conference. They can make about as much as a P2 team can, and they have no problem making up the difference with fundraising. They like their independence and aren't going to move away from that. They could easily get a scheduling agreement with either or both the P2.

The no-P2 can most certainly get in. In some years, their best team(s) can compete with the 4-7 teams in the P2. I think having all the conferences involved is a better product that just the P2.

Only thing that might change their minds is if they're forced to move. That only really happens when the big conferences break away from the rest.

ND could compete if they wanted to in the "Division 1 Championship" division. They will never be hard up for cash due to their lifetime agreement with NBC.

The D1 SuperLeague will consist of the B1G and SEC. Why would either conference cave and let someone from the outside in if they control 90% of the football power?
 
Only thing that might change their minds is if they're forced to move. That only really happens when the big conferences break away from the rest.

ND could compete if they wanted to in the "Division 1 Championship" division. They will never be hard up for cash due to their lifetime agreement with NBC.

The D1 SuperLeague will consist of the B1G and SEC. Why would either conference cave and let someone from the outside in if they control 90% of the football power?
"If you want to maintain your rivalries with USC an Michigan, join the B1G."
 
Only thing that might change their minds is if they're forced to move. That only really happens when the big conferences break away from the rest.

ND could compete if they wanted to in the "Division 1 Championship" division. They will never be hard up for cash due to their lifetime agreement with NBC.

The D1 SuperLeague will consist of the B1G and SEC. Why would either conference cave and let someone from the outside in if they control 90% of the football power?
Explain the economics behind just SEC and B1G and excluding all other teams and conferences? How is that a more attractive product to the viewing audience when you basically cut out 2/3 of the rest of the viewing audience? I keep hearing people say this, but it's never made sense to me.

My point is that the P2 is going to naturally become the dominant conferences. They already have. Excluding everyone else will only reduce your audience, not increase it.
 
Explain the economics behind just SEC and B1G and excluding all other teams and conferences? How is that a more attractive product to the viewing audience when you basically cut out 2/3 of the rest of the viewing audience? I keep hearing people say this, but it's never made sense to me.

My point is that the P2 is going to naturally become the dominant conferences. They already have. Excluding everyone else will only reduce your audience, not increase it.

The NFL wouldn't be a more attractive product if they allowed playoff bids to the champions of the XFL and Canadian football league. It would be a joke because everyone knows those entries would be at the expense of better more proven squads. The NFL has a monopoly on professional football and they exploit it to their own benefit.

Same holds true for the B1G and SEC. Assuming they snatch up ND, FSU, Clemson, and lets just throw Miami in there for an even 4. Those 2 conferences would have a complete monopoly on all power brands in the game. You don't let Okie State in the playoffs just to throw the old B12 a bone. Your 12 team playoff (or whatever the final number ends up being) consists of the best teams from those 2 conferences. You can still mix in some early season novelty OOC matchups against the lower division schools. They're little more than exhibition games.

The point is you hold all the power in the game: biggest brands, best matchups, most lucrative TV contracts. Why would you stay in the NCAA and continue to be beholden to their rules when you can dictate your own?
 
The NFL wouldn't be a more attractive product if they allowed playoff bids to the champions of the XFL and Canadian football league. It would be a joke because everyone knows those entries would be at the expense of better more proven squads. The NFL has a monopoly on professional football and they exploit it to their own benefit.

Same holds true for the B1G and SEC. Assuming they snatch up ND, FSU, Clemson, and lets just throw Miami in there for an even 4. Those 2 conferences would have a complete monopoly on all power brands in the game. You don't let Okie State in the playoffs just to throw the old B12 a bone. Your 12 team playoff (or whatever the final number ends up being) consists of the best teams from those 2 conferences. You can still mix in some early season novelty OOC matchups against the lower division schools. They're little more than exhibition games.

The point is you hold all the power in the game: biggest brands, best matchups, most lucrative TV contracts. Why would you stay in the NCAA and continue to be beholden to their rules when you can dictate your own?
You still haven't explained how eliminating 2/3 of your fanbase increases your economic situation. Sure, if you can get rid of 2/3 of your fanbase and still make the same money, and you don't have to split it as much, you make more money. But you haven't explained how the popularity of CFB doesn't drop by decreasing your fanbase.

Your XFL and Canadian league examples don't fit - no one cares about them, they have very fans to begin with and they have never been part of the NFL. With CFB, you have 100 teams who are currently part of the CFB that you want to drop, who have millions and millions of fans who you want to just dismiss.

You are trying to take something that is different from pro football and make it pro football, ignoring exactly what makes it special.
 
You still haven't explained how eliminating 2/3 of your fanbase increases your economic situation. Sure, if you can get rid of 2/3 of your fanbase and still make the same money, and you don't have to split it as much, you make more money. But you haven't explained how the popularity of CFB doesn't drop by decreasing your fanbase.

Your XFL and Canadian league examples don't fit - no one cares about them, they have very fans to begin with and they have never been part of the NFL. With CFB, you have 100 teams who are currently part of the CFB that you want to drop, who have millions and millions of fans who you want to just dismiss.

You are trying to take something that is different from pro football and make it pro football, ignoring exactly what makes it special.

Of who's fanbase? The NCAA? Certainly not the B1G and SEC fanbases. You also aren't cutting in to the national fanbase for prime time games. Neutrals tune in to those big time matchups for the spectacle, same goes for playoff matchups. For the regular season conference play, regional fans of non P2 teams will still mostly watch their teams on separate platforms.

I think the analogy does fit. Maybe a similar comparison would be the English Premier League. It was once a part of a broader English Professional Division that broke away to form their own, higher tier division. The Championship division still has some good teams and the games are exciting, but no one really cares on a national level compared to the EPL. Same holds true in the new CFB world where 2 conferences hold all the cards. Locally and regionally, you have your own fans but nationally no one really cares about schools outside of the big boys.

You may not like it (i don't either, i miss the old regional appeal to it all), but that is exactly the direction CFB is heading: Pro Football.
 
You still haven't explained how eliminating 2/3 of your fanbase increases your economic situation. Sure, if you can get rid of 2/3 of your fanbase and still make the same money, and you don't have to split it as much, you make more money. But you haven't explained how the popularity of CFB doesn't drop by decreasing your fanbase.

Your XFL and Canadian league examples don't fit - no one cares about them, they have very fans to begin with and they have never been part of the NFL. With CFB, you have 100 teams who are currently part of the CFB that you want to drop, who have millions and millions of fans who you want to just dismiss.

You are trying to take something that is different from pro football and make it pro football, ignoring exactly what makes it special.
It's the UFL and EVERYONE cares because the Stallions are back to back champions of the world and will repeat this Sunday. The greatest existing dynasty in sports currently.
 
Of who's fanbase? The NCAA? Certainly not the B1G and SEC fanbases. You also aren't cutting in to the national fanbase for prime time games. Neutrals tune in to those big time matchups for the spectacle, same goes for playoff matchups. For the regular season conference play, regional fans of non P2 teams will still mostly watch their teams on separate platforms.

I think the analogy does fit. Maybe a similar comparison would be the English Premier League. It was once a part of a broader English Professional Division that broke away to form their own, higher tier division. The Championship division still has some good teams and the games are exciting, but no one really cares on a national level compared to the EPL. Same holds true in the new CFB world where 2 conferences hold all the cards. Locally and regionally, you have your own fans but nationally no one really cares about schools outside of the big boys.

You may not like it (i don't either, i miss the old regional appeal to it all), but that is exactly the direction CFB is heading: Pro Football.
Let's look at where the money is made - The conferences have their own media contracts, so just focusing the year long competition on 2 conferences won't increase that. If anything, some fans of the ACC/B12/G5 will lose interest in the SEC and B1G games and not watch them. It's not that more will watch once they get eliminated, we can agree on that, so you aren't going to increase your viewership in SEC/B1G games. So, the SEC/B1G at best will hold their media value, but likely lose some viewers. That represents about 66% of the media money.

Then the 33% comes from the CFP. If you eliminate everyone from the CFP except the SEC/B1G do you really think viewership will go up? No, you will lose fans that will no longer care about the CFP because they don't have anyone in their conference in it, they will be pissed at the SEC/B1G (think MLB viewership after strikes), and they no longer have a rooting interest in it all during the year, etc. So at best you hold your audience, but you aren't increasing it. You do get to keep all the money, but you've added teams to your conferences so the per team money might go up a bit, but you've basically wiped out CFB as a national sport.

So, I've shown that doing what you advocate likely loses you media money, even if it marginally increases the per team money. Once again, what are the economics that you think drive the idea of the SEC/B1G going out on their own?
 
Let's look at where the money is made - The conferences have their own media contracts, so just focusing the year long competition on 2 conferences won't increase that. If anything, some fans of the ACC/B12/G5 will lose interest in the SEC and B1G games and not watch them. It's not that more will watch once they get eliminated, we can agree on that, so you aren't going to increase your viewership in SEC/B1G games. So, the SEC/B1G at best will hold their media value, but likely lose some viewers. That represents about 66% of the media money.

Then the 33% comes from the CFP. If you eliminate everyone from the CFP except the SEC/B1G do you really think viewership will go up? No, you will lose fans that will no longer care about the CFP because they don't have anyone in their conference in it, they will be pissed at the SEC/B1G (think MLB viewership after strikes), and they no longer have a rooting interest in it all during the year, etc. So at best you hold your audience, but you aren't increasing it. You do get to keep all the money, but you've added teams to your conferences so the per team money might go up a bit, but you've basically wiped out CFB as a national sport.

So, I've shown that doing what you advocate likely loses you media money, even if it marginally increases the per team money. Once again, what are the economics that you think drive the idea of the SEC/B1G going out on their own?

I'm just going to disagree with you on the viewership. If they expanded further to include ND, FSU, Clemson, and Miami, the SEC and B1G would be homes to all the biggest schools in all the most populous states. The only major media markets they wouldn't cover would be Phoenix and Denver.

The only potential downside I can envision is the Cinderella factor that drives interest in the first few rounds of the NCAA basketball tourney. CFB rarely has that same allure. Occasionally a small school is given a chance and actually beats a big powerhouse in a major bowl game (see Boise St) and it becomes a media sensation. But those examples are few and far between and have never materialized in the old BCS Title game or the current CFP format. An expanded CFP might present that opportunity, but chances are we will just see UGA or Ohio State faceroll over the lesser opponent in a very boring round 1. Even at the Cinderella media hype peak, that game draws less national interest than UGA vs Ohio State. If anything, fans of the bigger schools will bitch about risking injury when a more difficult game the following week looms large.

Anyhow, that's just my feeling of where things are heading: a new Semi-Pro division in CFB. I don't necessarily like it, and i would hate it if i were a fan of a school sitting on the outside looking in, but to me that's just how things look...and they don't appear to be slowing down.
 
With the expanded CFP, I doubt ND ever joins a conference. They are in the best position possible. If they are ever good enough to be a top 4 team, they'll slide to the #5 spot and play the worst team in the CFP, and then if they win, play the worst AQ team in the CFP. They'll also get their bye during championship week. I just don't ever see it happening unless they have to for some reason.
 
With the expanded CFP, I doubt ND ever joins a conference. They are in the best position possible. If they are ever good enough to be a top 4 team, they'll slide to the #5 spot and play the worst team in the CFP, and then if they win, play the worst AQ team in the CFP. They'll also get their bye during championship week. I just don't ever see it happening unless they have to for some reason.
Agreed.

The #5 spot which will most often be the loser of the SECCG or the B1GCG is starting to look very attractive. As you point out, you will get the G5 representative in a home game, and then play the worst of the ACC or B12 champ in round 2.

If you win the SEC or B1G, you get a bye then you have to play the no. 7 or 8 team which will likely be the SEC or B1G no. 3 team - LSU, Texas, PSU, Oregon, UM. Still want the byte, but the no. 5 slot is very attractive.
 
Top