What Is The PAC’s or Big 12’s Move?

[Cowboyinexile]

If the B1G doesn’t move on other PAC teams now then that signals they are just waiting on ACC schools.

If the B1G and SEC stand pat then the chances of the ACC surviving goes down each year we get closer to 2036.

I've been thinking about this. Assuming the new Big 12 commissioner is competent (and that's a big if considering the last two) this could play out one of two ways.

1. Most likely is you see either a Big 12 Pac 12 merger or the Big 12 guts the Pac 12. Either way this seems inevitable. Neither conference is going to survive on its own long term but both have too many pieces at the top that aren't going to be left out when we see the NCAA breakaway. B1G, SEC, and Biggie and Pac get together and decide how to carve up the ACC. They get enough schools on board to get the conference to vote to disband. The big 2 get the jewels but there are enough solid schools left for BAP that we have 3 viable conferences to break away. There may be some shuffling-say Mizzou to the B1G to make room for Miami and Indiana gets demoted to no 3 because it's the new premiere basketball league but generally it works. Each conference has 20ish schools and all is good.

2. The ACC says fuck it and goes after the BAP schools as a proactive measure. This would be an interesting play but they would have to guarantee Clemson and Florida State more money than what the Big 2 could offer and this would likely lead to uneven revenue sharing. Depending on the payout this might work. I could see some of the Pac schools demanding to be on the higher end of the pay scale and some of the ones happy to be in the conversation cool with it. The Big 12 schools dealt with that shit for a decade though and they are more likely so be more interested in option 1. Making $70 million when the other conferences are making $100 million sucks but it's fine in the grand scheme of things. Making $50 million to subside schools in your conference making $100 million so they don't bolt and then you get $25 million sucks more. Getting $25 million from the start and having to watch support staff walk because Bama doubles their salary sucks the most.

 

[Wild Turkey]

I've been thinking about this. Assuming the new Big 12 commissioner is competent (and that's a big if considering the last two) this could play out one of two ways.

1. Most likely is you see either a Big 12 Pac 12 merger or the Big 12 guts the Pac 12. Either way this seems inevitable. Neither conference is going to survive on its own long term but both have too many pieces at the top that aren't going to be left out when we see the NCAA breakaway. B1G, SEC, and Biggie and Pac get together and decide how to carve up the ACC. They get enough schools on board to get the conference to vote to disband. The big 2 get the jewels but there are enough solid schools left for BAP that we have 3 viable conferences to break away. There may be some shuffling-say Mizzou to the B1G to make room for Miami and Indiana gets demoted to no 3 because it's the new premiere basketball league but generally it works. Each conference has 20ish schools and all is good.

2. The ACC says fuck it and goes after the BAP schools as a proactive measure. This would be an interesting play but they would have to guarantee Clemson and Florida State more money than what the Big 2 could offer and this would likely lead to uneven revenue sharing. Depending on the payout this might work. I could see some of the Pac schools demanding to be on the higher end of the pay scale and some of the ones happy to be in the conversation cool with it. The Big 12 schools dealt with that shit for a decade though and they are more likely so be more interested in option 1. Making $70 million when the other conferences are making $100 million sucks but it's fine in the grand scheme of things. Making $50 million to subside schools in your conference making $100 million so they don't bolt and then you get $25 million sucks more. Getting $25 million from the start and having to watch support staff walk because Bama doubles their salary sucks the most.

1. It makes the most sense for the Big 12 to grab PAC teams as the league has more upside.

2. Makes no difference what the ACC does it is most likely toast and with their GOR and network deal it Is almost impossible to add multiple schools without a financial issue. If the B1G stops for now that means they are coming and the SEC will join.

 

[OregonDucks]

Former WVU fan, live in WV, and have never heard that. When and why?

Excuse me?

 

[Jon Deaux]

That's so assinine.

Cheeky tho.

 

[Huskers4me]

Supposedly these are Utah, Colorado, and the Arizona schools. Maybe the loser of the UW/UO BIG sweepstakes joins in.

The 4 closest schools and not necessarily the 4 best remaining schools.

Better days lad, better days. I miss when the Big 8 schools were all together. The Big 12 feels more alien all the time.

Nothing better than a couple hour drive to an away game against teams you have played for 70+ years.

 

[Deep Creek]

The 4 closest schools and not necessarily the 4 best remaining schools.

Nothing better than a couple hour drive to an away game against teams you have played for 70+ years.

From Lubbock it ain't but about 50 miles further to Boulder than it is Houston. (Granted, Lubbock is the western outlier in the BIg 12) About 100 miles further to Tucson than Houston from Lubbock. A guy just has to learn to live with great distances and wide open spaces once you get west of Fort Worth...and all the way to the west coast. Just the way it is.

 

[CorpRebel]

From Lubbock it ain't but about 50 miles further to Boulder than it is Houston. (Granted, Lubbock is the western outlier in the BIg 12) About 100 miles further to Tucson than Houston from Lubbock. A guy just has to learn to live with great distances and wide open spaces once you get west of Fort Worth...and all the way to the west coast. Just the way it is.

MANY moons ago, in my younger days, I drove thru Texas while heading east and DAYAAAAM!! Never thought I'd ever get outta that frickin' state!

 

[Deep Creek]

MANY moons ago, in my younger days, I drove thru Texas while heading east and DAYAAAAM!! Never thought I'd ever get outta that frickin' state!

People don't realize how far it is across the state. Interstate 10 from LA to Jacksonville is 2,400+ miles. The Texas stretch of Interstate 10 from Anthony to Orange is over 1/3 of the trip at 875 miles.

 

[CoalTrain]

Excuse me?

AD went too far to the left for yours truly. Left em beside the road about a year before Texas and OU did but that's another thread... in the PF probably.

 

[Thiefery]

I remember last year when the Pac thought about raiding some of the Big 12 leftovers. I thought it was a smart move for them to pick up 2-4 decent CST games per week and IMO being able to have games on for 12+ hours would add a lot of value. But we weren't good enough apparently.

My my how things have changed.

well it helps when you know that oregon and udub will jump out of there if/when the BiG offers a spot. They aren't offering spots to any current or future Big12 school, that's for sure.

BTW there was a tweet from an article from a westcoast guy that said FOX thinks Cal/Stanford is worth 90mil a year in TV rights.. which is more than Oregon/Udub together

Be interesting to see how it comes about with invites from the BiG. Also they mentioned that the BiG is going to charge them the same as they did to MD to come in lol

 

[Red_Alert]

well it helps when you know that oregon and udub will jump out of there if/when the BiG offers a spot. They aren't offering spots to any current or future Big12 school, that's for sure.

BTW there was a tweet from an article from a westcoast guy that said FOX thinks Cal/Stanford is worth 90mil a year in TV rights.. which is more than Oregon/Udub together

Be interesting to see how it comes about with invites from the BiG. Also they mentioned that the BiG is going to charge them the same as they did to MD to come in lol

They'll grab Kansas for basketball blueblood.

 

[Thiefery]

They'll grab Kansas for basketball blueblood.

i don't know.. i actually have a feeling the SEC might at the end of the day..

 

[duckboy33]

well it helps when you know that oregon and udub will jump out of there if/when the BiG offers a spot. They aren't offering spots to any current or future Big12 school, that's for sure.

BTW there was a tweet from an article from a westcoast guy that said FOX thinks Cal/Stanford is worth 90mil a year in TV rights.. which is more than Oregon/Udub together

Be interesting to see how it comes about with invites from the BiG. Also they mentioned that the BiG is going to charge them the same as they did to MD to come in lol

The article had a HUGE mistake IMO. It's valuing the schools based on the markets of Eugene, Bay Area and Seattle. When evaluating the media markets that Oregon brings, you have to evaluate Portland, not Eugene. On top of that, eyeballs are just as important as markets, especially as we move away from the cable format.

Average # of viewers per game in 2021:

Oregon - 2.57M (10th nationally)
Washington - 985K (38th nationally)
Stanford - 778K (46th nationally)
California - 222K (76th nationally)

 

[Thiefery]

The article had a HUGE mistake IMO. It's valuing the schools based on the markets of Eugene, Bay Area and Seattle. When evaluating the media markets that Oregon brings, you have to evaluate Portland, not Eugene. On top of that, eyeballs are just as important as markets, especially as we move away from the cable format.

Average # of viewers per game in 2021:

Oregon - 2.57M (10th nationally)
Washington - 985K (38th nationally)
Stanford - 778K (46th nationally)
California - 222K (76th nationally)

not sure if the TV ratings came into play, but rather the size of markets?

BTW. I'm a big believer in Stanford.. I get that they don't do well on the field as people want for additions into their new conferences but I'm a sucker for olympic sports and they have put a squeeze on the directors cup trophys

 

[duckboy33]

not sure if the TV ratings came into play, but rather the size of markets?

BTW. I'm a big believer in Stanford.. I get that they don't do well on the field as people want for additions into their new conferences but I'm a sucker for olympic sports and they have put a squeeze on the directors cup trophys

Correct, they valued the size of the markets over TV ratings. Markets still matter because Cable TV is still a thing. However, as we transition to streaming and other ways to view games, eyeballs are becoming increasingly important.

Stanford's olympic sports are great but that doesn't pay the bills. If they did, the PAC 12 would be fine.

 

[Thiefery]

Correct, they valued the size of the markets over TV ratings. Markets still matter because Cable TV is still a thing. However, as we transition to streaming and other ways to view games, eyeballs are becoming increasingly important.

Stanford's olympic sports are great but that doesn't pay the bills. If they did, the PAC 12 would be fine.

thing is.. Stanford gets money to keep those sports alive somehow.. Like I said I know I'm a sucker but they are what college sports were supposed to be.. But I know time is changing..

 

[Red_Alert]

i don't know.. i actually have a feeling the SEC might at the end of the day..

The Big 10's path to Oregon or Washington.

I actually think Washington gets the nod over Oregon. But I also think Oregon 'eventually' makes the cut.

The SEC will spend the vast majority of it's time trying to figure out how to make the ACC explode before 2036.
The Big 10 could certainly play a part in that dastardly deed in pursuit of the only remaining crown jewel Notre Dame.

 

[duckboy33]

thing is.. Stanford gets money to keep those sports alive somehow.. Like I said I know I'm a sucker but they are what college sports were supposed to be.. But I know time is changing..

I agree. I don't think all these changes are great for college sports. However, there's no stopping it now.

I have no inside information but I believe the Big Ten's next move is to add ND, Stanford, UW and Oregon. It locks up every Left Coast market and still brings overall value to the next media deal. It's possible it's just ND/Stanford or ND/Oregon. But that leaves the door open for ESPN to get their foot in the west coast market. I think FOX is going to shut that door soon.

 

[Top Cat]

i don't know.. i actually have a feeling the SEC might at the end of the day..

Call me a conspiracist, but Fox might've already have given the wink* wink* on who they have on their short list for the BIG. Maybe doesn't happen all at once, but...

Miami and Georgia Tech are also very possible.

 

[Top Cat]

Once again, no mention of Wazzu or Oregon St.