IMO, I think they are pretty safely in at this point. Probably in the 8/9 range. They have the quality wins, good predictive metrics, and like you said a NET of 35. When you look at teams in and around the cut line, they just have better resume metrics(even though their SOR and KPI aren't great). It's really the quality wins. If you're looking for a comp, think of a better resume than what Rutgers was last year. Rutgers was just about .500 against Q1/Q2(9-10), but had 3 additional losses in Q3/Q4. The committee looked past those 3 bad losses and put them in the PIG. Iowa only has one bad loss and it'll stay that way unless they lose to Minnesota or Nebraska at home(not sure if that's even on the schedule but that would qualify as a Q3 loss). So I think avoiding another bad loss, and going something like 5-5 puts them in pretty good shape, to even avoid Dayton at that point. 18-13 at that point, with probably 11 Q1/Q2 wins. That's pretty strong despite the Q4 loss. At 18-13, a good comp would be slightly better than Michigan last year, and they avoided Dayton and got an 11. 6-4, likely puts you in the 8/9 range.