Big Ten Basketball

[Kburjr]

Every predictive model uses past results to predict future outcomes. What else would they base it on? Good vibes?

It does not account for injuries or suspensions (Illinois). It doesn't account for schedules. It only uses mechanical data points. And, thru 12-14 games, a very small data set, at that.

 

[duckboy33]

It doesn't account for schedules.

SOS is factored into the rankings

 

[Kburjr]

SOS is factored into the rankings

How about how many days between games? How many days on the road? And not accounting for injuries? Too many factors unaccounted for.

 

[Red_Alert]

It does not account for injuries or suspensions (Illinois). It doesn't account for schedules. It only uses mechanical data points. And, thru 12-14 games, a very small data set, at that.

About the only thing I see the KenPom, RPI, and BPI, ratings account for is signature wins.

Sparty is (0-2) in Big 10 play and (8-5) overall with losses to #20 James Madison, #16 Duke, #4 Arizona, #23 Wisconsin, and unranked Nebraska.

But they do have that 'signature win' over #17 Baylor.

 

[duckboy33]

How about how many days between games? How many days on the road? And not accounting for injuries? Too many factors unaccounted for.

The goal of the ratings is to find the relative strength of each team. Obviously there are many factors that could impact any individual game.

 

[Kburjr]

The goal of the ratings is to find the relative strength of each team. Obviously there are many factors that could impact any individual game.

Which is why I said a poor predictive model.

 

[duckboy33]

Which is why I said a poor predictive model.

KenPom is the gold standard of predictive models in college basketball. But go on, I'm sure you know better

 

[Kburjr]

KenPom is the gold standard of predictive models in college basketball. But go on, I'm sure you know better

I would go so far as to say there are no good predictive models in CCB. Possibly in W-L but not in point spreads.

 

[duckboy33]

I would go so far as to say there are no good predictive models in CCB. Possibly in W-L but not in point spreads.

And yet Vegas still puts out lines and wins money. Don't confuse perfect with good. Nobody can every predict everything with 100% accuracy. KenPom's resume speaks for itself. If you aren't familiar, I'd suggest reading up on it.

 

[Red_Alert]

And yet Vegas still puts out lines and wins money. Don't confuse perfect with good. Nobody can every predict everything with 100% accuracy. KenPom's resume speaks for itself. If you aren't familiar, I'd suggest reading up on it.

Biff could.

 

[Kburjr]

And yet Vegas still puts out lines and wins money. Don't confuse perfect with good. Nobody can every predict everything with 100% accuracy. KenPom's resume speaks for itself. If you aren't familiar, I'd suggest reading up on it.

Vegas makes money by handling the bets, not predicting who will win by how much, but what spread will bring in equal action.

And, I have reas KenPom's history and methodology. Their record gets better toward the end of the season when they have more data points.

Also, if you know statistical applications, you would know that it's probability of outcome, not picking winners.

 

[jontaejones]

I would go so far as to say there are no good predictive models in CCB. Possibly in W-L but not in point spreads.

All of the predictive models have their own emphasis.

Ken Pom (mostly) operates on the principle that if you can blow teams out, you are a better team.

And teams who win by razor thin margins are mostly lucky.

The problem with KenPom is that in college basketball, in March, one loss and you're gone.

 

[Red_Alert]

I don't see KenPom as a predictive ranking. It just measure past performance.

So much for that. Arizona lost to (6-6) Stanford last night 82-100, yet only dropped one spot in KenPom from 3rd to 4th.

Some teams that lost to Arizona actually went up in their KenPom rankings.

 

[Kburjr]

So much for that. Arizona lost to (6-6) Stanford last night 82-100, yet only dropped one spot in KenPom from 3rd to 4th.

Some teams that lost to Arizona actually went up in their KenPom rankings.

Did KenPom predict those teams are better?

 

[Red_Alert]

Well feasting on cupcakes and the holidays are over, so it's time to get into the meat of the in-conference schedules.

Tonight (CT)



There are only four Big 10 teams without an 'in-conference' loss. They are....

Illinois (1-0)
Northwestern (1-0)
Wisconsin (1-0)
Indiana (2-0)

So at a minimum we'll be down to just 3 without an in-conference loss after tonight.

 

[Red_Alert]

Does anyone know the reasoning as to why four teams have only played one in-conference game where everybody else has played two?

Illinois (1-0)
Northwestern (1-0)
Wisconsin (1-0)
Rutgers (0-1)

 

[ericd7633]

It's honestly sad to see what has happened to MD basketball with realignment. Can't even fill the arena with #1 Purdue in town. Their games back in the day against Duke, UNC, and Wake were awesome atmospheres. Shit is sad as hell.

 

[Mr.Hockey]

It's honestly sad to see what has happened to MD basketball with realignment. Can't even fill the arena with #1 Purdue in town. Their games back in the day against Duke, UNC, and Wake were awesome atmospheres. Shit is sad as hell.

Yeah now days we are basically beating a dead horse with realignment and the insanity behind most of it, but this was def one of the main ones that never made sense and it happened before almost all of alignment which makes it all the more bizarre.

 

[ericd7633]

Yeah now days we are basically beating a dead horse with realignment and the insanity behind most of it, but this was def one of the main ones that never made sense and it happened before almost all of alignment which makes it all the more bizarre.

They were(maybe still are) a horribly run athletic department that was strapped for cash. I interviewed for a job there about a year before they made the move, and it wasn't pretty. From that perspective it made sense, but the fan apathy has never been higher. I went to a game against UVA (before they became good) right before they moved to the B1G and the atmosphere was awesome. It was more electric for that game against unranked UVA than it is tonight. When I was younger I went to some games at Cole Fieldhouse and it was unreal. This isn't even recognizable.

 

[NinerSpartan]

It's honestly sad to see what has happened to MD basketball with realignment. Can't even fill the arena with #1 Purdue in town. Their games back in the day against Duke, UNC, and Wake were awesome atmospheres. Shit is sad as hell.

they were unhappy with the overall profile of the conference. the league is filled with private schools + land grant/specialty universities. When Maryland was in the ACC, Chapel Hill, Charlottesville and College Park were the only three flagship state schools in the conference. They weren't thrilled with that. They also CONSTANTLY whined how North Carolina-centric the league was. When Debbie Yow was the AD, she spent a lot of money on women's sports, aka sports that don't turn a profit. As a result, Maryland's athletic department was fucking broke. This coincided with the realignment mess in 2010/11. That's why Maryland jumped.

fwiw, the ACC is probably sitting pretty right now if they added Penn State along with Florida State in 1991. That was absolutely on the table, but the basketball retards didn't want to kill round robin ACC ball so PSU was never invited. Adding FSU/ Penn State in 1991 + Virginia Tech, West Virginia and Miami in 2003 probably saves the ACC. League needed more state schools, but nobody knew we were going down this road..so here we are.